作者:
polanco (polanco)
2023-11-05 14:01:13來源：https://atmlb.com/47kVQsu
潛在下家：天使、道奇、巨人、水手、大都會、教士、遊騎兵、紅襪
官網猜這八隊選一，理由大概都跟別家媒體講得差不多
覺得比較有趣的是後面對於大谷作為自由球員的分析
SCOUT’S TAKE 球探觀點
“A generational talent who is a superstar as a hitter and pitcher, his free age
ncy is unlike anything we have ever seen. Because of his injury, the value on th
e mound needs to be discounted, not only because he won’t contribute in that as
pect next year, but also the longer-term risk associated with coming back from a
second UCL surgery. Because the contributions on the mound are more difficult t
o project, I believe most teams will have to focus their investment parameters o
n Ohtani the hitter, where his top-of-the-scale strength makes him a unique play
er who can hit and hit for power in the middle of a championship lineup.
這部分提及大谷的天份是整個世代難得一見的，無論投打都是超級明星，也讓他成為獨一無
二的自由球員。
不過受傷導致他的投球價值減損，不只是因為他明年不能投，還有兩次韌帶重建手術帶來的
風險。而由於未來的投球貢獻難以評估，這位球探相信大多數球隊會將重點集中在打者大谷
身上，能夠兼顧打擊率以及長打力量的獨特能力使他足以擔任爭冠球隊的中心打者。
“Shohei is a tremendous athlete who clearly takes care of his body and should a
ge well. The only concern from an offensive standpoint is that there is some zon
e expansion and swing/miss at times, but it is easily offset by top-of-the-scale
power production. The contributions at DH alone are special enough to receive c
onsideration for a mega-deal, but factor in the interest from big-market clubs a
nd potential impact on the mound once fully healthy and who knows how far owners
might be willing to go to add a future Hall of Famer.”
大谷有著頂尖的運動能力而且很照顧自己的身體，所以應該會老化的比較慢。在打擊上唯一
能挑剔的只有偶爾會放大好球帶並且揮空，不過頂級長打產能就能抵消這個小缺點。
單純看大谷擔任DH的貢獻就足以讓他拿到大約，然後還要考慮大市場球隊的興趣以及大谷未
來健康重返投手丘的潛在價值，誰知道老闆願意花多少來引進一名未來的名人堂球員。
BUYER BEWARE 買家注意
This is the part where we point out a flaw in the free agent’s game. Umm. Right
. Sure, Ohtani was in the bottom 12th percentile in whiff rate last season and h
is strikeout rate was in the bottom third of the league, but are we really going
to nitpick those stats? If there’s anything to make potential suitors hesitate
to shell out big bucks for Ohtani, it’s that he’s had two Tommy John surgerie
s in five years. Ohtani plans to return to the mound in 2025, but until he’s ba
ck out there mowing down opposing hitters, there will be some question as to whe
ther he can return to his dominant form.
這段是分析缺點的部分，提到了今年打者大谷的揮空率（PR值只有12）以及被三振率（大約
落在聯盟後三分之一），不過作者不覺得這是什麼大問題。
他認為買家會猶豫的點在於大谷五年內動了兩次TJ手術，雖然預定會在2025年回歸投手丘，
但只有到了實戰面對打者的時候我們才能知道大谷能不能找回過去的宰制力。
FOR COMP'S SAKE 身價模板
There’s no way to find a good comp for Ohtani, who is doing things no player ha
s ever done before. Based purely on his offense, Ohtani figures to be worth at l
east as much as Judge, who signed a nine-year, $360 million deal to return to th
e Yankees last winter. Whether Ohtani