※ 引述《godivan (加藤家的惠是我的!)》之銘言：
: → q622622: 想太多，共軍ㄧ來一開始對台灣沒興趣，二來渡台是要跟美 02/19 23:20
: → q622622: 軍幹上 02/19 23:21
: 美國介入兩岸是在1950.6以後 也就是韓戰之時
: 意思就是說在這時間點以前美國的態度是不介入兩岸
: (史實是 1950.1美國宣布不介入兩岸)
: 所以根本沒有所謂跟美軍開戰的問題
: 再說了,中共對台灣沒興趣? 你確定? 中共在戰後還戰前就有派人來台灣來了....
: 按照上面的假設 國府軍沒有撤退來台灣
: 這台灣共軍會拿不下..顆顆
直接引用美國國務次卿 1949年1月14日 致杜魯門總統的備忘錄：
893.50 Recovery/1–1449
Memorandum by the Acting Secretary of State to President Truman
Washington, January 14, 1949.
Subject: U.S. Armed Forces at Tsingtao; Problem of Formosa
Should the Chinese Communists attempt to gain control of the island by
forceful means contrary to the wishes of the Formosan people, or if the
Formosans themselves should revolt against their Chinese rulers,
justification would exist for action by the United Nations both on the
grounds that the situation represented a threat to peace and on the basis of
the de facto status of Formosa. The Indonesian case would afford some useful
parallels from the United Nations point of view. Intervention by the United
Nations might be requested by the Australian or the Philippine Governments
with a view to arranging for a plebiscite to determine the wishes of the
Formosan people.
如果中國共產黨試圖以武力違反福爾摩沙人民意願控制該島，或是福爾摩沙人
起而反抗其中國領導群，聯合國的行動以危及和平狀況及福爾摩沙事實地位這
兩種理由都站得住腳。從聯合國的觀點觀之，印尼的例子可以提供一些有用的
類比。聯合國可以應澳洲或菲律賓政府要求，安排公民投票以決定福爾摩沙人民
的意願。
The Department of State fully recognizes that it may be necessary at some
stage for the United States to take military action if Formosa is to be
denied to the communists. It strongly believes that for political reasons,
internally in Formosa and internationally, the United States should go to
great lengths to avoid crude unilateral intervention. But that time is not
yet upon us. The United States has not exhausted all of the political
possibilities. It may still be able to foster a Chinese non-communist local
government which will itself successfully deny Formosa to the communists.
國務院全然了解在某些階段，倘欲使福爾摩沙不落入共黨之手，美國可能有必要採取
軍事行動。一般認為為了福爾摩沙內部或國際上的政治理由，美國應該戮力避免粗暴
的單方介入。但這個時點還沒到來。美國尚未用盡政治手段。在地的中國非共產政府
本身仍有可能成功的保住福爾摩沙不落入共黨之手。
Meanwhile, the United States should, as it is now doing, prepare for the
failure of the above contingency and put itself in a position to intervene
with force if necessary. Such intervention should be publicly based not on
obvious American strategic interests but on principles which are likely to
have support in the international community, mainly the principle of
self-determination of the Formosan people.
同時，美國應該像現在所做的一樣，倘前述局勢失利，做好在必要時以武力介入的
準備。此等介入不該公然基於明顯的美國戰略利益，而是基於某些較能為國際社會
支持的原則，主要是福爾摩沙人民的自決權。
This involves the fostering of a Formosan autonomy movement which can be
called into full action should it become evident that the Chinese regime on
the island is unlikely to be able to deny the island to the communists.
這涉及強化福爾摩沙自主運動，一旦島上的中國政權顯然無法避免該島落入共黨
之手，該自主運動就能全面接手。