1.媒體來源: The Diplomat Magazine
2.完整新聞標題:The Real Reason the Xi-Ma Meeting Was Historic
副標：Ma Ying-jeou may be the last Taiwanese president to
embrace a “one China” mentality.
馬將是台灣最後一個擁抱一中的總統
3.完整新聞內文:
Mr. Xi Jinping just met Mr. Ma Ying-jeou in Singapore,
an event many media members have praised as historic.
有很多媒體將馬習會讚譽為歷史性時刻
On one level, this is no doubt true; it is the first
meeting of the top leaders of Taiwan and China since the start
of the Chinese Civil War in 1945. However, the meeting had more
symbolic effects than actual results. It was not a meeting to
open a better relationship between the two sides. Actually, many
have predicted that cross-strait relations will turn hostile again
after Taiwan’s presidential election in January 2016, when the
more independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party will
likely come back to power.
某層面來說，這是對的……但是象徵意義大於實際成果。這並不能開創兩岸新
格局，實際上很多人預測等到2016總統大選後，隨著獨立思想的蔡上台，兩岸
關係將會趨向敵對。
This was also not a meeting that will define the future trend
of bilateral relationship. While Xi is becoming more and more
powerful and will decide China’s future direction, Ma, on the other
hand, no longer represents Taiwan’s future orientation. Actually,
Taiwan will go in a quite different direction after his departure
from office in several months. If this meeting is historic, it is
for a different reason: it is a chance to say farewell to Ma, who
will most likely be the last president elected in Taiwan who still
has a “one-China” mentality. This meeting is a farewell to the old
tradition and paradigm of cross-Strait relations.
這次會面並不會定義兩岸未來……馬是一個即將卸任的總統。
如果這次會面是歷史性時刻，那原因不一樣，這是一個向台灣最後一個擁抱一
中思想總統說再見的機會。
The identity of the Taiwanese people is drifting. Many recent
public opinion surveys have indicated that fewer and fewer Taiwanese
view themselves as Chinese, and there is a major generation gap. The
surveys also indicated that the majority of people under 40 years old
consider themselves as only Taiwanese and are pro-independence. The
official name of Taiwan is the Republic of China (ROC), a name that
hearkens to the past and one indicating that the rivalry between
Beijing and Taipei is about who is the rightful government of China.
But this mentality will leave office with Ma.
台灣人的認同正在飄移，越來越多人覺得自己是台灣人，
越來越少人認為自己是中國人。
While Republic of China will remain the official name of Taiwan
and the current one-China constitution will still be kept for the
foreseeable future, any attempts to make changes on these in Taiwan
will meet fierce reactions from Beijing. However, people’s perceptions
and identity have changed. While Ma won’t be the last Kuomintang (KMT)
president in Taiwan’s democracy, the chance that Taiwanese voters will
choose a candidate with a one-China mentality and pro-unification
orientation will become smaller and smaller in the future. Education
and social narratives have played a powerful role in recent decades in
shifting Taiwan’s identity. The reason Ma and his party have become a
lame duck is because they have become out of touch, creating a major
perception gap between the KMT and the younger generations.
台灣的正式名稱中華民國與一中憲法仍會在可預見到的未來繼續存在，
想改變這兩者都會激怒北京當局。馬不是台灣最後一任總統，台灣人投票
給一中與統一趨向候選人的機會會越來越小……馬及國民黨會成為跛腳鴨
總統是因為不能觸動年輕人的心。
For Xi Jinping, this meeting was the time to say farewell to
the past. He needs to prepare for facing a new Taiwan. Even the future
of the KMT will be quite different after Ma’s departure. In fact, the
KMT has already been experiencing a major transformation and becoming
more localized, evolving from the one-China doctrine to a more
inward-focused party. A good example is found in the campaign slogan
of the KMT’s 2016 presidential candidate Eric Chu: “One Taiwan: Taiwan
is Power.” In 2014, Chu replaced Ma as the chairman of the KMT after
this ruling party suffered a humiliating defeat in local elections.
There is no longer a market for the one-China and unification
narratives in Taiwan. Without realizing this reality, Beijing will
surely make mistakes in its future reactions with Taiwan. *[m
對習來說，這是會面是對過去說再見的時刻，他需要準備迎接新台灣，
就連國民黨也會因為馬的離開而變得不一樣。事實上國民黨正在本土化，
最佳例子就是朱的ONE TAIWAM口號…
While the identity of Taiwan is changing, there is still little
chance that Taiwan will gain independence from the mainland. Actually,
with China’s rising power, Taiwan’s options for such a move in the
geopolitical game are becoming more and more limited. Economically
Taiwan will be marginalized. Unfortunately globalization spells as
China-ization for Taiwan. The emergence of the new Taiwanese identity
can also be seen as a local resistance to the development of
China-ization. As Taiwan has been experiencing an identity crisis
there has been a lack of consensus and high levels of political
partisanship. This has all greatly reduced Taiwan’s future
competitiveness, making its future outlook quite bleak. This is
probably the sad destiny of the island.
雖然台灣人認同的板塊飄移，但是仍僅有微小的機會可以獨立。
在中國崛起下，台灣在地緣政治遊戲的選擇越來越小。經濟上台灣會被邊緣化。
不幸的，全球化對台灣來說是中國化，台灣人認同的興起被視為是中國化的本
土阻力。正當台灣人認同經歷危機，但缺乏共識與高水平的政黨，這削弱的未來
的競爭力。
For Ma, this meeting was a farewell to his presidency. He may
consider the stability of cross-strait relations as his greatest legacy,
so this is a meeting to celebrate his historic legacy. For Xi, this is
in fact a meeting to say farewell to the one-China KMT and a meeting to
prepare for working with a new Taiwan. Even though Xi has the power to
keep greater restrictions on Taiwan, the major identity transformation
will make Taiwan a definite new trouble for Beijing.
對馬來說，這次會面是對他總統職位的告別。他或許認為海峽兩岸的和平是他最大
的貢獻，所以他才要跟習見面。對習來說，這是對一中政策的國民黨告別，以及對
新台灣的準備工作。雖然習對台灣有很大的框限能力，但是台灣人認同的轉變將會
是北京一個新的麻煩。
When rising power meets changing identity, there’s a different
game to play.
崛起的強國遇到轉變中的認同，遊戲揭曉。
Dr. Zheng Wang is the Director of the Center for Peace and
Conflict Studies (CPCS) at the School of Diplomacy and International
Relations of Seton Hall University in New Jersey. He is a Carnegie
Fellow at New America and a Global Fellow at the Kissinger Institute
on China and the United States of the Woodrow Wilson International
Center for Scholars.
.........很隨興不負責任翻譯...........
4.完整新聞連結 (或短網址):http://goo.gl/n6UbhD
5.備註:
※ 一個人一天只能張貼一則新聞，被刪或自刪也算額度內，超貼者劣文，請注意