※ 引述《F7 ( IL DIVO)》之銘言：
: 經濟學人：台灣選出獨立傾向的總統 將使亞太情勢更危險
: http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20160109004406-260407
: 根據最新一期《經濟學人》報導，自2008年馬英九就任總統以來，兩岸關係可謂空前的和
: 睦，2015年11月，馬英九更與大陸領導人習近平在新加坡進會面，創下兩岸領導人會面的
: 歷史里程碑。
: 報導指出，多年來中國大陸對台灣的政策建立在耐心與經濟整合。2000年民進黨陳水扁當
: 選總統，兩岸緊張關係升高，隨著習近平在亞太地區態度更趨強硬，現在情勢可能更加危
: 險。
: 大陸要求蔡英文接受「九二共識」，但她否認有「九二共識」。經濟學人分析，如果選出
: 立場傾向獨立的總統，習近平可能面臨來自軍方的強硬壓力，反對大陸耐心對待台灣。
原文是這篇
http://goo.gl/9J0Jeo
A Tsai is just a Tsai
UNDETERRED by the rain, the crowd leaps to its feet shouting “We’re going
to win” in Taiwanese as their presidential candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, begins
her stump speech. Some rattle piggy banks to show that their party, the
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), relies on, and serves, the little guy—as
opposed to the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), backed by businesses and fat cats and
one of the world’s richest political institutions. Taiwan’s voters go to
the polls on January 16th in what is likely to prove a momentous election
both for the domestic politics on the island and for its relations with the
Communist government in China that claims sovereignty over it. Eight years of
uneasy truce across the Taiwan Strait are coming to an end.
Since taking office in 2008, the outgoing president, Ma Ying-jeou, has
engineered the deepest rapprochement between Taiwan and China ever seen,
signing an unprecedented 23 pacts with the mainland, including a partial
free-trade agreement. It culminated in an unprecedented meeting in November
between Mr Ma and Xi Jinping, China’s president, in Singapore. But if the
rapprochement under Mr Ma was a test of whether closer ties would help China’
s long-term goal of peaceful unification, it failed. For the past six months
Ms Tsai, whose party leans towards formal independence for Taiwan, has been
miles ahead in the polls, with the support of 40-45% of voters. The KMT’s
Eric Chu has 20-25% and another candidate, James Soong, a former KMT
heavyweight, about 15%. Taiwanese polls can be unreliable, and many voters
are undecided. But if Mr Chu were to win, it would be a shock.
Taiwan elects its parliament, the Legislative Yuan, on the same day. That
race is closer. But the DPP’s secretary-general, Joseph Wu, thinks his party
can win it too, either outright or in coalition with two smaller parties—and
the polls suggest he may be right. If so, it would be the first time any
party other than the KMT has controlled the country’s legislature since the
KMT fled to the island at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949.
The election result will have regional consequences, but the campaign itself
is being fought on livelihood issues. The economy appears to have grown by
only 1% in 2015, less than in 2014. Taiwan is doing worse than other
export-oriented Asian economies such as South Korea. Salaries are stagnant,
youth unemployment is up and home ownership is beyond the reach of many. One
study found that the capital, Taipei, has become one of the world’s
costliest cities relative to income, with the ratio of median house prices to
median household income rising from 8.9 in 2005 to 15.7 in 2014—nearly twice
the level of London. Concerns like these have dented the KMT’s reputation
for economic competence.
Self-inflicted wounds have not helped either. Most of the KMT’s bigwigs
refused to run for president, fearing defeat. So its chairman, Eric Chu, put
forward Hung Hsiu-chu, whose pro-China views proved so extreme that they
nearly split the party. Mr Chu ditched her just months before the poll and
ran for president himself. Ms Hung’s backers, many of them old-guard KMT
voters, may abstain in protest. The party which for decades has dominated
politics faces humiliation.
That would have profound implications for China. For years, the Chinese
Communist Party’s policy towards Taiwan has been based on patience and
economic integration. But the election campaign suggests that integration is
a liability and that time may not be on China’s side. In 1992, according to
the Election Studies Centre at National Chengchi University in Taipei, 18% of
respondents identified themselves as Taiwanese only. A further 46% thought of
themselves as both Taiwanese and Chinese. Today 59% call themselves
Taiwanese, while 34% identify as both—ie, very few consider themselves
Chinese first and foremost.
Patience doesn’t pay
Among 20- to 29-year-olds, three-quarters think of themselves as Taiwanese.
For them China is a foreign country, and the political ripples of this change
are now being felt. In early 2014 students occupied parliament for three
weeks in a protest against a proposed services deal with China. This proved
to be a turning point: the KMT went on to be thrashed in municipal elections
in late 2014. Some of the student leaders have formed their own party to
contest the legislative election, joining 17 other groups and 556 candidates,
who range from a heavy-metal front man to a former triad crime boss.
The last time Taiwan chose a DPP president, Chen Shui-bian, in 2000,
cross-strait tensions escalated. Given China’s increasing assertiveness in
the region under Mr Xi, things could be even more dangerous now. China has
been piling pressure on Ms Tsai. Mr Xi says he wants a “final resolution”
of differences over Taiwan, adding that this is not something to leave for
the next generation. China is demanding that Ms Tsai approve the “1992
consensus”, a formula by which China and the KMT agreed there was only one
China—but disagreed about what that meant in practice. Ms Tsai has long said
no such consensus exists, though when asked about it in a presidential
debate, she called it “one option”.
Ms Tsai is a very different figure from Mr Chen, who delighted in provoking
China (and was later jailed for corruption). She is a low-key,
English-educated lawyer schooled in international trade rather than in the
rhetoric of Taiwanese nationalism. She has gone out of her way to assure
China and America, Taiwan’s guarantor, that she backs the status quo and
will be cautious. Many of her proposals, such as that Taiwan should expand
its soft power through non-governmental organisations, seem designed to be
uncontroversial. If her party takes control of the legislature, that would
remove a source of instability: conflict with lawmakers made Mr Chen’s
presidency even more unpredictable than it otherwise would have been.
Yet whatever Ms Tsai’s intentions, a lot could go wrong. Taiwanese politics
is famously raucous, and the DPP’s radicals seeking formal independence
might yet cause problems. Mr Xi, in turn, could come under pressure from
military diehards arguing that China has been too patient. In one of the last
foreign-policy vestiges of the “one China” idea, China and Taiwan have
similar claims in the South China Sea, a nerve-racking part of the globe. If
a new government in Taiwan starts tinkering with its stance on the sea, China
might easily take offence. The election of an independence-leaning president
comes at a dangerous moment.
沒時間全翻，先翻一段
上色那段是說
如果民進黨在國會過半，將可避免總統與國會的衝突這個不確定因素
陳水扁任內就是因為總統與國會的衝突，使他的整個任期更不可測