個人猜測
與其說是對台灣友好，不如說是對中國金援存有戒心。
http://tinyurl.com/hh7wbs7
China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy
中國的債務陷阱式外交
NEW DELHI – If there is one thing at which China’s leaders truly excel, it
is the use of economic tools to advance their country’s geostrategic
interests. Through its $1 trillion “one belt, one road” initiative, China
is supporting infrastructure projects in strategically located developing
countries, often by extending huge loans to their governments. As a result,
countries are becoming ensnared in a debt trap that leaves them vulnerable to
China’s influence.
中國藉由一帶一路計畫，借大量債務給沿線地理位置重要的發展中國家來建設基礎設施
，最終使這些國家陷入債務陷阱中而對中國難以說不。
Of course, extending loans for infrastructure projects is not inherently bad.
But the projects that China is supporting are often intended not to support
the local economy, but to facilitate Chinese access to natural resources, or
to open the market for low-cost and shoddy Chinese goods. In many cases,
China even sends its own construction workers, minimizing the number of local
jobs that are created.
當然，借債建設本質上並沒錯，但壞在中國的援助無意促進當地經濟，而意在獲取當地
自然資源，或打開低廉中國製產品的市場。許多案例中，中國甚至派出自己的工人
，使因建設創造的工作機會無法留在當地。
Several of the projects that have been completed are now bleeding money. For
example, Sri Lanka’s Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport, which opened
in 2013 near Hambantota, has been dubbed the world’s emptiest. Likewise,
Hambantota’s Magampura Mahinda Rajapaksa Port remains largely idle, as does
the multibillion-dollar Gwadar port in Pakistan. For China, however, these
projects are operating exactly as needed: Chinese attack submarines have
twice docked at Sri Lankan ports, and two Chinese warships were recently
pressed into service for Gwadar port security.
In a sense, it is even better for China that the projects don’t do well.
After all, the heavier the debt burden on smaller countries, the greater China
’s own leverage becomes. Already, China has used its clout to push Cambodia,
Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand to block a united ASEAN stand against China’s
aggressive pursuit of its territorial claims in the South China Sea.
許多建設項目完成後營運至今持續虧損，從某種意義上來說，這些項目失敗對中國更有利
，債務負擔越嚴重，中國就有更多著力點影響這些小國。
Moreover, some countries, overwhelmed by their debts to China, are being
forced to sell to it stakes in Chinese-financed projects or hand over their
management to Chinese state-owned firms. In financially risky countries,
China now demands majority ownership up front. For example, China clinched a
deal with Nepal this month to build another largely Chinese-owned dam there,
with its state-run China Three Gorges Corporation taking a 75% stake.
As if that were not enough, China is taking steps to ensure that countries
will not be able to escape their debts. In exchange for rescheduling
repayment, China is requiring countries to award it contracts for additional
projects, thereby making their debt crises interminable. Last October, China
canceled $90 million of Cambodia’s debt, only to secure major new contracts.
為了還債，被迫將原本中國金援項目中所持有的股分或管理權給予中國國營企業
，甚至以允許新的借債計畫為條件允許延後還款，使這些國家益發深陷債務陷阱中
Some developing economies are regretting their decision to accept Chinese
loans. Protests have erupted over widespread joblessness, purportedly caused
by Chinese dumping of goods, which is killing off local manufacturing, and
exacerbated by China’s import of workers for its own projects.
New governments in several countries, from Nigeria to Sri Lanka, have ordered
investigations into alleged Chinese bribery of the previous leadership. Last
month, China’s acting ambassador to Pakistan, Zhao Lijian, was involved in a
Twitter spat with Pakistani journalists over accusations of project-related
corruption and the use of Chinese convicts as laborers in Pakistan (not a new
practice for China). Zhao described the accusations as “nonsense.”
一些發展中國家已經開始後悔接受中國貸款，各地爆發抗議，抗議中國傾銷產品造成
當地製造業蕭條以及失業，從奈及利亞到斯里蘭卡，許多國家新政府開始調查前任
政府收受中國賄賂的行為
In retrospect, China’s designs might seem obvious. But the decision by many
developing countries to accept Chinese loans was, in many ways,
understandable. Neglected by institutional investors, they had major unmet
infrastructure needs. So when China showed up, promising benevolent
investment and easy credit, they were all in. It became clear only later that
China’s real objectives were commercial penetration and strategic leverage;
by then, it was too late, and countries were trapped in a vicious cycle.
以下舉斯里蘭卡作為例子:
Sri Lanka is Exhibit A. Though small, the country is strategically located
between China’s eastern ports and the Mediterranean. Chinese President Xi
Jinping has called it vital to the completion of the maritime Silk Road.
China began investing heavily in Sri Lanka during the quasi-autocratic
nine-year rule of President Mahinda Rajapaksa, and China shielded Rajapaksa
at the United Nations from allegations of war crimes. China quickly became
Sri Lanka’s leading investor and lender, and its second-largest trading
partner, giving it substantial diplomatic leverage.
It was smooth sailing for China, until Rajapaksa was unexpectedly defeated in
the early 2015 election by Maithripala Sirisena, who had campaigned on the
promise to extricate Sri Lanka from the Chinese debt trap. True to his word,
he suspended work on major Chinese projects.
But it was too late: Sri Lanka’s government was already on the brink of
default. So, as a Chinese state mouthpiece crowed, Sri Lanka had no choice
but “to turn around and embrace China again.” Sirisena, in need of more
time to repay old loans, as well as fresh credit, acquiesced to a series of
Chinese demands, restarting suspended initiatives, like the $1.4 billion
Colombo Port City, and awarding China new projects.
Sirisena also recently agreed to sell an 80% stake in the Hambantota port to
China for about $1.1 billion. According to China’s ambassador to Sri Lanka,
Yi Xianliang, the sale of stakes in other projects is also under discussion,
in order to help Sri Lanka “solve its finance problems.” Now, Rajapaksa is
accusing Sirisena of granting China undue concessions.
By integrating its foreign, economic, and security policies, China is
advancing its goal of fashioning a hegemonic sphere of trade, communication,
transportation, and security links. If states are saddled with onerous levels
of debt as a result, their financial woes only aid China’s neocolonial
designs. Countries that are not yet ensnared in China’s debt trap should
take note – and take whatever steps they can to avoid it.