※ 引述《mooto (退出會比較好, 就退出)》之銘言：
: 這種選舉語言看看就好
: 中國講什麼美國都照單全收的話 情報網應該先收了
: 再來三隻忠犬台日韓都沒回報嗎
: 如果真的是被中國騙了 台灣到底在嗨甚麼 表示人家根本不把你話當一回事
: 實際上美國早早就對中國封關了
: 這次破口是從歐洲來的 連老司機台灣都中招
: 阿川怎麼不敢說 都是被歐洲騙惹
: 川普如果有把拯救美國經濟的1%認真放在防疫上 現在根本不會爆炸阿
沒錯
而且美國情報早在一月就已經開始持續不斷提出警告
有篇華盛頓郵報的報導蠻詳細的
https://reurl.cc/qdgaAy
U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about
a likely pandemic
By
Shane Harris,
Greg Miller,
Josh Dawsey and Ellen Nakashima
March 21, 2020 at 8:10 a.m. GMT+8
U.S. intelligence agencies were issuing ominous, classified warnings in
January and February about the global danger posed by the coronavirus while
President Trump and lawmakers played down the threat and failed to take
action that might have slowed the spread of the pathogen, according to U.S.
officials familiar with spy agency reporting.
The intelligence reports didn’t predict when the virus might land on U.S.
shores or recommend particular steps that public health officials should
take, issues outside the purview of the intelligence agencies. But they did
track the spread of the virus in China, and later in other countries, and
warned that Chinese officials appeared to be minimizing the severity of the
outbreak.
Taken together, the reports and warnings painted an early picture of a virus
that showed the characteristics of a globe-encircling pandemic that could
require governments to take swift actions to contain it. But despite that
constant flow of reporting, Trump continued publicly and privately to play
down the threat the virus posed to Americans. Lawmakers, too, did not grapple
with the virus in earnest until this month, as officials scrambled to keep
citizens in their homes and hospitals braced for a surge in patients
suffering from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
Intelligence agencies “have been warning on this since January,” said a
U.S. official who had access to intelligence reporting that was disseminated
to members of Congress and their staffs as well as to officials in the Trump
administration, and who, along with others, spoke on the condition of
anonymity to describe sensitive information.
“Donald Trump may not have been expecting this, but a lot of other people in
the government were — they just couldn’t get him to do anything about it,”
this official said. “The system was blinking red.”
Spokespeople for the CIA and the Office of the Director of National
Intelligence declined to comment, and a White House spokesman rebutted
criticism of Trump’s response.
“President Trump has taken historic, aggressive measures to protect the
health, wealth and safety of the American people — and did so, while the
media and Democrats chose to only focus on the stupid politics of a sham
illegitimate impeachment,” Hogan Gidley said in a statement. “It’s more
than disgusting, despicable and disgraceful for cowardly unnamed sources to
attempt to rewrite history — it’s a clear threat to this great country.”
Public health experts have criticized China for being slow to respond to the
coronavirus outbreak, which originated in Wuhan, and have said precious time
was lost in the effort to slow the spread. At a White House briefing Friday,
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said officials had been alerted
to the initial reports of the virus by discussions that the director of the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had with Chinese colleagues on
Jan. 3.
The warnings from U.S. intelligence agencies increased in volume toward the
end of January and into early February, said officials familiar with the
reports. By then, a majority of the intelligence reporting included in daily
briefing papers and digests from the Office of the Director of National
Intelligence and the CIA was about covid-19, said officials who have read the
reports.
The surge in warnings coincided with a move by Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to
sell dozens of stocks worth between $628,033 and $1.72 million. As chairman
of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Burr was privy to virtually all of the
highly classified reporting on the coronavirus. Burr issued a statement
Friday defending his sell-off, saying he sold based entirely on publicly
available information, and he called for the Senate Ethics Committee to
investigate.
A key task for analysts during disease outbreaks is to determine whether
foreign officials are trying to minimize the effects of an outbreak or take
steps to hide a public health crisis, according to current and former
officials familiar with the process.
At the State Department, personnel had been nervously tracking early reports
about the virus. One official noted that it was discussed at a meeting in the
third week of January, around the time that cable traffic showed that U.S.
diplomats in Wuhan were being brought home on chartered planes — a sign that
the public health risk was significant. A colleague at the White House
mentioned how concerned he was about the transmissibility of the virus.
“In January, there was obviously a lot of chatter,” the official said.
Inside the White House, Trump’s advisers struggled to get him to take the
virus seriously, according to multiple officials with knowledge of meetings
among those advisers and with the president.
Azar couldn’t get through to Trump to speak with him about the virus until
Jan. 18, according to two senior administration officials. When he reached
Trump by phone, the president interjected to ask about vaping and when
flavored vaping products would be back on the market, the senior
administration officials said.
On Jan. 27, White House aides huddled with then-acting chief of staff Mick
Mulvaney in his office, trying to get senior officials to pay more attention
to the virus, according to people briefed on the meeting. Joe Grogan, the
head of the White House Domestic Policy Council, argued that the
administration needed to take the virus seriously or it could cost the
president his reelection, and that dealing with the virus was likely to
dominate life in the United States for many months.
Mulvaney then began convening more regular meetings. In early briefings,
however, officials said Trump was dismissive because he did not believe that
the virus had spread widely throughout the United States
By early February, Grogan and others worried that there weren’t enough tests
to determine the rate of infection, according to people who spoke directly to
Grogan. Other officials, including Matthew Pottinger, the president’s deputy
national security adviser, began calling for a more forceful response,
according to people briefed on White House meetings.
But Trump resisted and continued to assure Americans that the coronavirus
would never run rampant as it had in other countries.
“I think it’s going to work out fine,” Trump said on Feb. 19. “I think
when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative
effect on that and that type of a virus.”
“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA,” Trump tweeted five
days later. “Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
But earlier that month, a senior official in the Department of Health and
Human Services delivered a starkly different message to the Senate
Intelligence Committee, in a classified briefing that four U.S. officials
said covered the coronavirus and its global health implications. The House
Intelligence Committee received a similar briefing.
Robert Kadlec, the assistant secretary for preparedness and response — who
was joined by intelligence officials, including from the CIA — told
committee members that the virus posed a “serious” threat, one of those
officials said.
Kadlec didn’t provide specific recommendations, but he said that to get
ahead of the virus and blunt its effects, Americans would need to take
actions that could disrupt their daily lives, the official said. “It was
very alarming.”
Trump’s insistence on the contrary seemed to rest in his relationship with
China’s President Xi Jingping, whom Trump believed was providing him with
reliable information about how the virus was spreading in China, despite
reports from intelligence agencies that Chinese officials were not being
candid about the true scale of the crisis.
Some of Trump’s advisers told him that Beijing was not providing accurate
numbers of people who were infected or who had died, according to
administration officials. Rather than press China to be more forthcoming,
Trump publicly praised its response.
“China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus,” Trump
tweeted Jan. 24. “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and
transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the
American People, I want to thank President Xi!”
Some of Trump’s advisers encouraged him to be tougher on China over its
decision not to allow teams from the CDC into the country, administration
officials said.
In one February meeting, the president said that if he struck a tougher tone
against Xi, the Chinese would be less willing to give the Americans
information about how they were tackling the outbreak.
Trump on Feb. 3 banned foreigners who had been in China in the previous 14
days from entering the United States, a step he often credits for helping to
protect Americans against the virus. He has also said publicly that the
Chinese weren’t honest about the effects of the virus. But that travel ban
wasn’t accompanied by additional significant steps to prepare for when the
virus eventually infected people in the United States in great numbers.
As the disease spread beyond China, U.S. spy agencies tracked outbreaks in
Iran, South Korea, Taiwan, Italy and elsewhere in Europe, the officials
familiar with those reports said. The majority of the information came from
public sources, including news reports and official statements, but a
significant portion also came from classified intelligence sources. As new
cases popped up, the volume of reporting spiked.
As the first cases of infection were confirmed in the United States, Trump
continued to insist that the risk to Americans was small.
“I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine,” he said on
Feb. 10.
“We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it,”
he said four days later. “It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting
better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”
On Feb. 25, Nancy Messonnier, a senior CDC official, sounded perhaps the most
significant public alarm to that point, when she told reporters that the
coronavirus was likely to spread within communities in the United States and
that disruptions to daily life could be “severe.” Trump called Azar on his
way back from a trip to India and complained that Messonnier was scaring the
stock markets, according to two senior administration officials.
Trump eventually changed his tone after being shown statistical models about
the spread of the virus from other countries and hearing directly from
Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, as
well as from chief executives last week rattled by a plunge in the stock
market, said people - familiar with Trump’s conversations.
But by then, the signs pointing to a major outbreak in the United States were
everywhere.
簡單說
美國情報機關從一月以來就一直持續發出警告
分發情報對象是國會議員、相關部門、白宮官員
最早的初步警報是在1月3日星期五的白宮簡報會
由衛生與公共服務部長 Alex Azar 所提出
從這時開始國家情報局與中央情報局的大多數情報都是關於covid-19的
這時候還出現了一個小插曲
隨著警告激增，參議員 Richard Burr 大量拋售持股
還為此替自己辯護全是根據公開信息
在一月第三週的一次會議上討論到
美國駐武漢的外交官正乘包機返國
這表明目前公共健康危機面臨巨大風險
此時白宮顧問們正努力讓川普認真看待這種病毒
但一直到1月18日前
衛生部長Alex Azar都沒法讓川普跟他正式討論這個病毒
1月27日白宮幕僚長 Mick Mulvaney
持續召開更多的例行會議
試圖讓高階官員重視這個病毒
白宮國內政策委員會負責人 Joe Grogan 表示
政府必須認真面對這種病毒否則將影響川普連任
並且這疫情將可能持續數個月之久
2月初
川普的國家安全副顧問 Matthew Pottinger 與相關官員
呼籲該採取更強力的應對措施
2月19日
川普作出以下發言
“I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very
negative effect on that and that type of a virus.”
2月24日
川普推特
“Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
在此之前
負責防災預備工作的助理秘書 Robert Kadlec 提出
該病毒將造成嚴重威脅
若要鈍化威脅美國人要採取破壞日常生活的行動
此時川普依然堅持與中國領導習主席的關係
儘管情報機關報告已經指出中國官員對真相並不坦承
川普的顧問向川普提醒北京沒有提供準確的感染者與死亡人數
1月24日
川普推特
“The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It
will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I
want to thank President Xi!”
接著因為中國不允許美國CDC進入中國
川普顧問建議川普對中國採取更強硬態度
2月3日川普宣布對中國的入境禁令
隨著疫情蔓延到中國境外
美國第一批感染病例確診
情報機關發佈越來越多的警告
川普依然覺得美國人的風險很小
2月10日
川普:“I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine,”
2月25日
CDC高級官員 Nancy Messonnier
警告病毒很可能造成社區傳播
將嚴重破壞日常生活
川普則抱怨Nancy Messonnier嚇壞股市