就我的看法，中間大概有十來天，因為錯誤的估計的病毒的威力和為了即將到來的春節穩定，官方機構沒有第一時間警告（其實也不太對，武漢市衛健委在12月底在網站曾經發過一個不明肺炎的公開通告，但是這種網站沒人看，同時電視台 報紙並沒有報道）
但是美國人措手不及，和中國的延誤沒有任何關繫
他們知道疫情很嚴重，那個時候川普的商務部長還很開心說疫情能夠促使制造業更快地回流到美國
他們那個時候看疫情就像看非洲那些聳人聽聞的病毒一樣，一個落後的醫療繫統，一個低下無能的行政機構，發生什麽可怕的傳染都不奇怪。疫情是很可怕，可是和他們沒有任何關係，也不會對他們產生任何影響，就像Ebola一樣，可怕但是對他們沒關係。
※ 引述《turbomons (Τ/taʊ/)》之銘言：
: ※ 引述《mooto (退出會比較好, 就退出)》之銘言：
: : 這種選舉語言看看就好
: : 中國講什麼美國都照單全收的話 情報網應該先收了
: : 再來三隻忠犬台日韓都沒回報嗎
: : 如果真的是被中國騙了 台灣到底在嗨甚麼 表示人家根本不把你話當一回事
: : 實際上美國早早就對中國封關了
: : 這次破口是從歐洲來的 連老司機台灣都中招
: : 阿川怎麼不敢說 都是被歐洲騙惹
: : 川普如果有把拯救美國經濟的1%認真放在防疫上 現在根本不會爆炸阿
: 沒錯
: 而且美國情報早在一月就已經開始持續不斷提出警告
: 有篇華盛頓郵報的報導蠻詳細的
: https://reurl.cc/qdgaAy
: U.S. intelligence reports from January and February warned about
: a likely pandemic
: By
: Shane Harris,
: Greg Miller,
: Josh Dawsey and Ellen Nakashima
: March 21, 2020 at 8:10 a.m. GMT+8
: U.S. intelligence agencies were issuing ominous, classified warnings in
: January and February about the global danger posed by the coronavirus while
: President Trump and lawmakers played down the threat and failed to take
: action that might have slowed the spread of the pathogen, according to U.S.
: officials familiar with spy agency reporting.
: The intelligence reports didn’t predict when the virus might land on U.S.
: shores or recommend particular steps that public health officials should
: take, issues outside the purview of the intelligence agencies. But they did
: track the spread of the virus in China, and later in other countries, and
: warned that Chinese officials appeared to be minimizing the severity of the
: outbreak.
: Taken together, the reports and warnings painted an early picture of a virus
: that showed the characteristics of a globe-encircling pandemic that could
: require governments to take swift actions to contain it. But despite that
: constant flow of reporting, Trump continued publicly and privately to play
: down the threat the virus posed to Americans. Lawmakers, too, did not grapple
: with the virus in earnest until this month, as officials scrambled to keep
: citizens in their homes and hospitals braced for a surge in patients
: suffering from covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
: Intelligence agencies “have been warning on this since January,” said a
: U.S. official who had access to intelligence reporting that was disseminated
: to members of Congress and their staffs as well as to officials in the Trump
: administration, and who, along with others, spoke on the condition of
: anonymity to describe sensitive information.
: “Donald Trump may not have been expecting this, but a lot of other people in
: the government were — they just couldn’t get him to do anything about it,”
: this official said. “The system was blinking red.”
: Spokespeople for the CIA and the Office of the Director of National
: Intelligence declined to comment, and a White House spokesman rebutted
: criticism of Trump’s response.
: “President Trump has taken historic, aggressive measures to protect the
: health, wealth and safety of the American people — and did so, while the
: media and Democrats chose to only focus on the stupid politics of a sham
: illegitimate impeachment,” Hogan Gidley said in a statement. “It’s more
: than disgusting, despicable and disgraceful for cowardly unnamed sources to
: attempt to rewrite history — it’s a clear threat to this great country.”
: Public health experts have criticized China for being slow to respond to the
: coronavirus outbreak, which originated in Wuhan, and have said precious time
: was lost in the effort to slow the spread. At a White House briefing Friday,
: Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said officials had been alerted
: to the initial reports of the virus by discussions that the director of the
: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had with Chinese colleagues on
: Jan. 3.
: The warnings from U.S. intelligence agencies increased in volume toward the
: end of January and into early February, said officials familiar with the
: reports. By then, a majority of the intelligence reporting included in daily
: briefing papers and digests from the Office of the Director of National
: Intelligence and the CIA was about covid-19, said officials who have read the
: reports.
: The surge in warnings coincided with a move by Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) to
: sell dozens of stocks worth between $628,033 and $1.72 million. As chairman
: of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Burr was privy to virtually all of the
: highly classified reporting on the coronavirus. Burr issued a statement
: Friday defending his sell-off, saying he sold based entirely on publicly
: available information, and he called for the Senate Ethics Committee to
: investigate.
: A key task for analysts during disease outbreaks is to determine whether
: foreign officials are trying to minimize the effects of an outbreak or take
: steps to hide a public health crisis, according to current and former
: officials familiar with the process.
: At the State Department, personnel had been nervously tracking early reports
: about the virus. One official noted that it was discussed at a meeting in the
: third week of January, around the time that cable traffic showed that U.S.
: diplomats in Wuhan were being brought home on chartered planes — a sign that
: the public health risk was significant. A colleague at the White House
: mentioned how concerned he was about the transmissibility of the virus.
: “In January, there was obviously a lot of chatter,” the official said.
: Inside the White House, Trump’s advisers struggled to get him to take the
: virus seriously, according to multiple officials with knowledge of meetings
: among those advisers and with the president.
: Azar couldn’t get through to Trump to speak with him about the virus until
: Jan. 18, according to two senior administration officials. When he reached
: Trump by phone, the president interjected to ask about vaping and when
: flavored vaping products would be back on the market, the senior
: administration officials said.
: On Jan. 27, White House aides huddled with then-acting chief of staff Mick
: Mulvaney in his office, trying to get senior officials to pay more attention
: to the virus, according to people briefed on the meeting. Joe Grogan, the
: head of the White House Domestic Policy Council, argued that the
: administration needed to take the virus seriously or it could cost the
: president his reelection, and that dealing with the virus was likely to
: dominate life in the United States for many months.
: Mulvaney then began convening more regular meetings. In early briefings,
: however, officials said Trump was dismissive because he did not believe that
: the virus had spread widely throughout the United States
: By early February, Grogan and others worried that there weren’t enough tests
: to determine the rate of infection, according to people who spoke directly to
: Grogan. Other officials, including Matthew Pottinger, the president’s deputy
: national security adviser, began calling for a more forceful response,
: according to people briefed on White House meetings.
: But Trump resisted and continued to assure Americans that the coronavirus
: would never run rampant as it had in other countries.
: “I think it’s going to work out fine,” Trump said on Feb. 19. “I think
: when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very negative
: effect on that and that type of a virus.”
: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA,” Trump tweeted five
: days later. “Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
: But earlier that month, a senior official in the Department of Health and
: Human Services delivered a starkly different message to the Senate
: Intelligence Committee, in a classified briefing that four U.S. officials
: said covered the coronavirus and its global health implications. The House
: Intelligence Committee received a similar briefing.
: Robert Kadlec, the assistant secretary for preparedness and response — who
: was joined by intelligence officials, including from the CIA — told
: committee members that the virus posed a “serious” threat, one of those
: officials said.
: Kadlec didn’t provide specific recommendations, but he said that to get
: ahead of the virus and blunt its effects, Americans would need to take
: actions that could disrupt their daily lives, the official said. “It was
: very alarming.”
: Trump’s insistence on the contrary seemed to rest in his relationship with
: China’s President Xi Jingping, whom Trump believed was providing him with
: reliable information about how the virus was spreading in China, despite
: reports from intelligence agencies that Chinese officials were not being
: candid about the true scale of the crisis.
: Some of Trump’s advisers told him that Beijing was not providing accurate
: numbers of people who were infected or who had died, according to
: administration officials. Rather than press China to be more forthcoming,
: Trump publicly praised its response.
: “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus,” Trump
: tweeted Jan. 24. “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and
: transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the
: American People, I want to thank President Xi!”
: Some of Trump’s advisers encouraged him to be tougher on China over its
: decision not to allow teams from the CDC into the country, administration
: officials said.
: In one February meeting, the president said that if he struck a tougher tone
: against Xi, the Chinese would be less willing to give the Americans
: information about how they were tackling the outbreak.
: Trump on Feb. 3 banned foreigners who had been in China in the previous 14
: days from entering the United States, a step he often credits for helping to
: protect Americans against the virus. He has also said publicly that the
: Chinese weren’t honest about the effects of the virus. But that travel ban
: wasn’t accompanied by additional significant steps to prepare for when the
: virus eventually infected people in the United States in great numbers.
: As the disease spread beyond China, U.S. spy agencies tracked outbreaks in
: Iran, South Korea, Taiwan, Italy and elsewhere in Europe, the officials
: familiar with those reports said. The majority of the information came from
: public sources, including news reports and official statements, but a
: significant portion also came from classified intelligence sources. As new
: cases popped up, the volume of reporting spiked.
: As the first cases of infection were confirmed in the United States, Trump
: continued to insist that the risk to Americans was small.
: “I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine,” he said on
: Feb. 10.
: “We have a very small number of people in the country, right now, with it,”
: he said four days later. “It’s like around 12. Many of them are getting
: better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”
: On Feb. 25, Nancy Messonnier, a senior CDC official, sounded perhaps the most
: significant public alarm to that point, when she told reporters that the
: coronavirus was likely to spread within communities in the United States and
: that disruptions to daily life could be “severe.” Trump called Azar on his
: way back from a trip to India and complained that Messonnier was scaring the
: stock markets, according to two senior administration officials.
: Trump eventually changed his tone after being shown statistical models about
: the spread of the virus from other countries and hearing directly from
: Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, as
: well as from chief executives last week rattled by a plunge in the stock
: market, said people - familiar with Trump’s conversations.
: But by then, the signs pointing to a major outbreak in the United States were
: everywhere.
: 簡單說
: 美國情報機關從一月以來就一直持續發出警告
: 分發情報對象是國會議員、相關部門、白宮官員
: 最早的初步警報是在1月3日星期五的白宮簡報會
: 由衛生與公共服務部長 Alex Azar 所提出
: 從這時開始國家情報局與中央情報局的大多數情報都是關於covid-19的
: 這時候還出現了一個小插曲
: 隨著警告激增，參議員 Richard Burr 大量拋售持股
: 還為此替自己辯護全是根據公開信息
: 在一月第三週的一次會議上討論到
: 美國駐武漢的外交官正乘包機返國
: 這表明目前公共健康危機面臨巨大風險
: 此時白宮顧問們正努力讓川普認真看待這種病毒
: 但一直到1月18日前
: 衛生部長Alex Azar都沒法讓川普跟他正式討論這個病毒
: 1月27日白宮幕僚長 Mick Mulvaney
: 持續召開更多的例行會議
: 試圖讓高階官員重視這個病毒
: 白宮國內政策委員會負責人 Joe Grogan 表示
: 政府必須認真面對這種病毒否則將影響川普連任
: 並且這疫情將可能持續數個月之久
: 2月初
: 川普的國家安全副顧問 Matthew Pottinger 與相關官員
: 呼籲該採取更強力的應對措施
: 2月19日
: 川普作出以下發言
: “I think when we get into April, in the warmer weather, that has a very
: negative effect on that and that type of a virus.”
: 2月24日
: 川普推特
: “Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
: 在此之前
: 負責防災預備工作的助理秘書 Robert Kadlec 提出
: 該病毒將造成嚴重威脅
: 若要鈍化威脅美國人要採取破壞日常生活的行動
: 此時川普依然堅持與中國領導習主席的關係
: 儘管情報機關報告已經指出中國官員對真相並不坦承
: 川普的顧問向川普提醒北京沒有提供準確的感染者與死亡人數
: 1月24日
: 川普推特
: “The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It
: will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I
: want to thank President Xi!”
: 接著因為中國不允許美國CDC進入中國
: 川普顧問建議川普對中國採取更強硬態度
: 2月3日川普宣布對中國的入境禁令
: 隨著疫情蔓延到中國境外
: 美國第一批感染病例確診
: 情報機關發佈越來越多的警告
: 川普依然覺得美國人的風險很小
: 2月10日
: 川普:“I think the virus is going to be — it’s going to be fine,”
: 2月25日
: CDC高級官員 Nancy Messonnier
: 警告病毒很可能造成社區傳播
: 將嚴重破壞日常生活
: 川普則抱怨Nancy Messonnier嚇壞股市
: