1.媒體來源: 每日電訊報(The Telegraph)
2.記者署名: Nicola Smith
3.完整新聞標題:
Taiwan, hailed for its gold standard Covid strategy, now faces ‘potential for lots of deaths’
曾為疫情模範生的台灣現在須面對可能的大量死亡案例
4.完整新聞內文:
Taiwan, hailed for its gold standard Covid strategy, now faces ‘potential
for lots of deaths’
As the ‘zero Covid’ stalwart flinches at China's strict omicron lockdowns,
has it done enough to follow Singapore and South Korea's example?
眼見中國封城效果不彰，但要仿照新加坡及南韓，台灣做好準備了嗎?
Within a few short weeks, Taiwan has been catapulted from a few hundred
Covid-19 cases a day to tens of thousands. The island now faces the daunting
prospect of a vertical trajectory of infections that could trigger
unprecedented death rates by this summer.
數週內，台灣單日確診數已從數百例暴增到上萬。台灣正面臨像垂直彈道般的驚人感染狀況，可能在夏季前造成前所未有的死亡率。
Anxious city dwellers are trying to carry on as normal, but restaurants, gyms
and schools are emptying out as people try to adjust to a dramatic shift from
the first two years of the pandemic, when the country was seen as one of the
world's few safe havens.
緊張的民眾試著正常生活，但只見餐廳健身房學校空蕩蕩。
Taiwan successfully fought back every new outbreak and curbed infections and
deaths with a “zero Covid” strategy that, like neighbouring China, relied
on strict border controls and lengthy quarantine on arrival.
過去台灣靠著跟中國一樣的邊境管制與隔離的嚴格清零政策守住了每一波感染。
But now in the face of unprecedented surges driven by the highly contagious
omicron variant, democratic Taiwan is diverging from authoritarian China.
但面對omicron病毒，民主台灣決定走不同於專制中國的路。
While Beijing is doubling down on its stringent “zero Covid” approach,
Taiwan is shifting away from a suppression strategy. This week, Taipei also
condemned China’s stringent lockdowns as “cruel” – jolting video from the
modern city of Shanghai has revealed hungry residents appealing for food, and
citizens in Hebei province being bolted into their homes.
Rather than emulating China, Taiwan has its sights on South Korea and
Singapore – which have successfully reduced restrictions while keeping death
rates low. But with little natural immunity and suboptimal vaccination rates
among the vulnerable, experts predict Taiwan could face a rocky ride.
台灣把目光放在南韓及新加坡成功解封並保持低死亡率的例子上。但專家預測不足的自然免疫及疫苗接種率將會讓台灣走得很辛苦。
On Thursday it breached 30,000 cases for the first time, and with an average
daily increase of 15 to 20 per cent, experts like Chase Nelson, a
Taipei-based computational biologist, predict Taiwan could peak at around
200,000 infections a day.
Only 15 per cent of the entire 23.5 million population remain unvaccinated,
but one of Taiwan’s biggest challenges lies in the alarming statistic that
21 per cent of over-75s have resisted the jab – many of them over fears
about side-effects.
That number has barely shifted since the sudden turnaround from a few dozen
cases a day to tens of thousands within a few weeks.
“The outbreak did give a kick in the pants to some people who had been
waiting but it doesn’t seem to be that substantial,” said Mr Nelson, who
estimates that if the vaccine pick-up remains the same, it will take five
months for an additional 10 per cent of over-75s to get just one dose.
“A fraction are just not going to do it. It’s almost like they would take a
chance on something they can’t control the timing of, which is their
infection,” he added.
The numbers could push Taiwan closer to Hong Kong, which has seen more than
9,300 – largely elderly – deaths for its 7.3m population, rather than
nearby South Korea, which recently weathered more than 600,000 cases a day by
getting booster shots to more than 90 per cent of those aged 60 and above.
While fatalities have so far remained low, experts warn that true figures are
being masked by a time lag of two to four weeks.
專家警告目前的低死亡率是假象，約需2-4週才會真實呈現。
An alarming analysis last month in Taiwan’s Commonwealth Magazine estimated
that some 22,000 senior citizens could die if vaccination rates did not pick
up, basing its calculation on Hong Kong’s fatality rates.
台灣的天下雜誌預測，若台灣的疫苗接種率不變，以香港的死亡率推估，未來將有2.2萬長者病歿。
For two years, Taiwan was hailed globally as a gold standard for its handling
of the pandemic, keeping deaths below 1,000 and its economy afloat, but flaws
in the country’s exit strategy risked an “underwhelming finish,” warned Mr
Nelson.
過去兩年台灣被全球視為防疫模範生，但目前有缺陷的國家政策只會導致平庸的成果。
“I think it is doing some things right and some things poorly,” he said. “
I do think it is wise to recognise that maintaining absolutely zero Covid
with something as contagious as omicron is not a long-term viable strategy,
as is evidenced by Shanghai.”
面對omicron，放棄長期清零的策略正確。
‘Hospitals beginning to be overwhelmed’
With vaccinations fresh, and plateauing, now was a “well-calculated” time
to drop restrictions during an outbreak of the milder omicron variant, he
said. This week, Taiwan’s health ministry dropped quarantine on arrival to
seven days.
“At the same time, Taiwan has really done this quickly and they missed an
opportunity to say what they were planning and to prepare people for it,” Mr
Nelson added. “They have instead had this feeling of making up guidelines as
they go along… There is a lot of confusion, understandably, and I don’t
think that has been a wise move in terms of their strategy.”
但台灣解封太快卻未及時宣導並超前部署。感覺像且戰且走做出的政策指引讓人迷惑，這步走得很不明智。
Taiwan’s testing capacity, in particular, has been pushed to its limits,
with long queues snaking round pharmacies to obtain scarce home kits, and
lengthy waits for PCR tests.
特別是台灣的檢測量能已到極限，可以看到搶買稀有快篩的人龍包圍藥局，還有長長的隊伍等著做PCR。
“Testing capacity is being outstripped. Hospitals are beginning to show
signs of being overwhelmed to some extent. I think that means the potential
for a lot of deaths unfortunately,” said Mr Nelson.
檢測量能不足、醫院被擠爆，很不幸的，就代表可能發生大量死亡案例。
Professor Chan Chang-chuan from National Taiwan University College of Public
Health pointed to two major shortfalls as Taiwan sought to adjust to Covid-19
as endemic.
詹長權指出台灣抗疫的兩大缺口: 12歲以下的兒童BNT疫苗還買不夠; 沒事先強化醫療體系並指引民眾自主在家隔離。
One had been the failure to order enough Pfizer vaccines for the under-12s,
he said.
Last month, Taiwan approved the use of the Moderna vaccine for children aged
6-11, but while this mirrors similar moves in the UK and EU, the hesitancy of
the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to greenlight the shot for children
has left Taiwanese parents uncertain.
Secondly, unlike Singapore, the authorities had not empowered the primary
healthcare system or prepared the public enough to self-isolate and treat
themselves at home.
In recent weeks, the country was shaken by the deaths of a two-year-old boy
and 20-year-old woman, who had a severe reaction to the virus and were
diagnosed too late.
台灣這幾週因發生2歲童及20歲女性種症死亡的案例而舉國震驚。
Singapore, which began the shift already last summer to treat Covid-19 like
the flu, did much groundwork ahead of time and had not experienced any deaths
among children, said Prof Chan.
但新加坡去年夏天開始把新冠當感冒後，就因為做好基本前置部署，沒有兒童死亡案例。
“They built a recovery from home programme step by step and gave out
instructions to give people who are staying at home proper and timely medical
advice, like telemedicine, phone calls, consultations,” he said.
新加坡並提供居家者適當適時的醫療建議，像是遠距醫療、電話關切、諮詢等。新加坡民眾就算在家也獲得仔細的指引資訊 也因此緊急醫療量能也能保留給最需要的人。
“People were educated to be careful even if at home. They have the
information,” he added. “By doing this they reserved critical care capacity
so the most needy can be treated.”
Taiwan was adjusting to the rapidly changing situation but needed to step up
measures to encourage the elderly to vaccinate by restricting their access to
crowded gatherings and offering more healthcare assistance to allow them to
take the jab at home, said Prof Chan.
“In living with Covid we have to control the pandemic to a risk level that
is acceptable.”
要共存，我們必須將風險控制在可接受的範圍。
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