川普歸來，台灣獲得美國支持代價更高
原標題：Taiwan Sees a Higher Price for U.S. Support as Trump Returns to Power
紐約時報
https://i.imgur.com/ePfuvm8.jpeg
去年，台灣士兵在進行軍事演習。唐納德·J·川普(Donald J. Trump)抱怨台灣，他說
：“他們不付錢給我們保護，你知道嗎？”圖片來源：Lam Yik Fei for The New York
Times
By Chris Buckley and Amy Chang Chien
In 2016, Taiwan’s president called Donald J. Trump to congratulate him after
he won the presidential election. Mr. Trump took the call, becoming the first
American president or president-elect to speak to a Taiwanese leader in
decades.
This time, after Mr. Trump won a second term in the White House, Taiwan was
quick to deny reports that its current leader, Lai Ching-te, was seeking a
similar phone call with the president-elect.
The contrast was telling.
Taiwan appears to be preparing for a more delicate, possibly testy,
relationship with Mr. Trump upon his return to the White House. On the
campaign trail, Mr. Trump had suggested that Taiwan should pay the United
States for helping defend the island from China, and complained that Taiwan
had stolen America’s business in semiconductors.
“There is more anxiety this time” in Taiwan about Mr. Trump’s taking
office, Chen Ming-chi, a former senior adviser on Taiwan’s National Security
Council, said in an interview.
2016年，台灣總統在川普贏得大選後致電祝賀他。川普接了電話，成為幾十年來第一位與
台灣領導人通話的美國總統或候任總統。
這一次，在川普贏得白宮第二個任期後，台灣很快就否認了有關其現任領導人賴清德尋求
與當選總統進行類似電話通話的報道。
這種對比很能說明問題。
在川普重返白宮後，台灣似乎正在準備與他建立更微妙、甚至可能更暴躁的關係。在競選
過程中，川普曾建議台灣應向美國支付費用，以幫助其保衛台灣免受中國侵害，並抱怨台
灣竊取了美國的半導體業務。
曾任台灣國家安全會議諮詢委員的陳明祺在接受採訪時表示，這次台灣對川普上任「更加
焦慮」。
By “declaring that we are not going to seek a congratulatory phone call,
that means we are more realistic,” said Professor Chen, who teaches at Taiwan
’s National Tsing Hua University. Mr. Lai issued a congratulatory statement
about Mr. Trump’s victory.
Tensions between Beijing and Taipei are high, with frequent Chinese military
drills stoking fears of an accidental conflict. A call with Mr. Trump could
prompt a forceful reaction from China, which claims the island as its
territory and resents whenever Taiwan acts like, or is treated as, a
sovereign nation.
For instance, that 2016 call between Mr. Trump and Tsai Ing-wen, who was then
Taiwan’s president, drew condemnation from China. The United States had
avoided leader-level contacts with Taiwan after it severed ties in 1979 to
switch to recognition of China.
The call was only the first of several notable steps by Mr. Trump that
bolstered U.S. support for Taiwan.
陳明祺現在台灣國立清華大學任教，他說：「表明我們宣布不尋求電話祝賀川普當選，這
意味著我們更加現實了。」賴清德對川普的勝選發表了祝賀聲明。
北京和台北之間的關係非常緊張，中國頻繁的軍事演習引發了人們對意外衝突的擔憂。與
川普通話可能會引發中國的強烈反應，中國聲稱台灣是其領土，每當台灣表現得像一個主
權國家或被當作一個主權國家對待時，中國都會感到不滿。
例如，2016年川普與時任台灣總統蔡英文的通話招致了中國的譴責。美國在1979年與台灣
斷絕關係轉而承認中國後一直避免與台灣進行領導人級別的接觸。
這通電話只是川普加強美國對台灣支持的幾項重大舉措中的第一步。
His administration later increased weapons sales to Taiwan and sent senior
officials to visit, in defiance of Beijing’s complaints. Such moves gained
Mr. Trump wide popularity in Taiwan even as much of the world soured on
American leadership under him.
後來，川普政府不顧北京的抗議，增加了對台軍售，並派高級官員訪問台灣。這些舉措讓
川普在台灣贏得了廣泛支持，儘管世界大部分地區對他領導下的美國感到不滿。
Now, Taiwan is also on the receiving end of Mr. Trump’s bluntly
transactional diplomacy. And the lack of formal relations means Taiwan’s
president, Mr. Lai, won’t get to make his case in a face-to-face meeting
with the new U.S. leader.
Mr. Trump’s complaints about Taiwan’s military spending and semiconductor
industry are adding to the pressure on Taiwan to buy more American weapons
and increase investment in building chip plants in the United States.
“You know, Taiwan, they stole our chip business, OK?” he said on a recent
episode of “The Joe Rogan Experience,” a popular podcast. “They don’t pay
us money for the protection, you know? The mob makes you pay money, right?”
Professor Chen, the former security adviser, said Taiwan would have to adjust
its approach to securing the support of the United States and its allies.
現在，台灣也成為了川普單刀直入的交易型外交的受害者。由於缺乏正式關係，台灣總統
賴清德將無法與美國新領導人進行面對面會談，陳述自己的觀點。
川普對台灣軍費開支和半導體行業的抱怨加大了台灣購買更多美國武器，以及增加在美國
投資建設晶片廠的壓力。
「你知道，台灣，他們偷走了我們的晶片業務，好嗎？」他在最近一期廣受歡迎的播客《
喬·羅根體驗》中說道。「我們保護他們，他們不付錢，你知道嗎？黑幫是要收保護費的
，對吧？」
陳明祺教授表示，台灣必須調整其獲取美國及其盟友支持的方式。
“In the past few years, we built our value on two things: democracy and
chips,” he said. “But democracy is not a focus of the coming Trump
administration, and the chips have turned from our advantage to a bit of a
problem, because Trump says we are stealing jobs.”
Taiwan’s trade may also suffer if President-elect Trump acts on vows to
steeply increase tariffs on goods imported into the United States. And some
in Taiwan worry that Mr. Trump may lose sight of the island’s concerns as he
focuses on his relationship — part pugilistic, part admiring — with China’
s strongman leader, Xi Jinping.
Despite Taiwan’s lack of formal diplomatic relationship with Washington, it
relies on U.S. support to counter China’s growing power and military
pressure. The partnership deepened under President Trump in his first term
and then under President Biden, while U.S. rivalry with China intensified.
Taiwanese officials have long sought to work closely with both Republicans
and Democrats, and are sure to try to build bridges with Mr. Trump’s
nominees for his next administration.
「過去幾年，我們的價值建立在兩件事上：民主和晶片，」他說。「但民主並不是即將上
任的川普政府的重點，而晶片已經從我們的優勢變成了一個問題，因為川普說我們正在偷
走（美國人的）工作。」
如果當選總統川普兌現承諾，大幅提高進口到美國的商品關稅，台灣的貿易也可能會收到
衝擊。台灣一些人擔心，川普可能會忽視台灣的擔憂，因為他專注於跟中國強人領袖習近
平之間時而強硬好鬥、時而諂媚的關係。
儘管台灣與華盛頓沒有正式的外交關係，但它依靠美國的支持來對抗中國日益增長的實力
和軍事壓力。在川普總統的第一任期和拜登總統的任期內，美台夥伴關係不斷加深，而美
國與中國的競爭則加劇了。
台灣官員長期以來一直尋求與共和黨和民主黨雙方均密切合作，他們肯定會努力與川普下
一屆政府的提名人建立聯繫。
Taiwan has already been raising its military spending, partly under pressure
from Washington. This year’s proposed budget would increase Taiwan’s
outlays on defense to about 2.6 percent of the island’s total economic
output. But Mr. Trump has said that Taiwan should raise military spending to
10 percent of its gross domestic product.
Sharply increasing military spending could be politically difficult for Taiwan
’s president, Mr. Lai. His party does not have a majority in the
legislature, and Mr. Lai also wants to spend more on domestic priorities,
such as green energy.
Mr. Trump has signaled doubt as to how quickly and effectively the United
States could help defend against a Chinese invasion. “Taiwan’s a tough
situation,” Mr. Trump told The Washington Post. “Don’t forget, it’s 9,000
miles away” from the United States, he said.
Such comments are “a certain way to say, listen, you have to increase your
defense budget. That means you buy more American weapons,” said Miles Yu, a
senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who was a China policy adviser to Mike
Pompeo, a secretary of state in the Trump administration.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, and the island’s other
leading chip makers may face demands from the Trump administration to locate
more production in the United States. (Industry experts have said that Mr.
Trump’s accusation against Taiwan’s semiconductor makers is groundless,
noting that the Taiwan companies merely provide manufacturing services to
American chip giants.)
台灣已增加了軍費開支，部分原因是受到華盛頓的壓力。今年的預算提案將使台灣的國防
支出增加到經濟總產出的2.6%左右。但川普表示，台灣的軍費開支應增加到其GDP的10%。
大幅增加軍費開支對台灣總統賴清德來說可能在政治上非常困難。他的政黨在立法院不佔
多數，而且他還希望在綠色能源等國內優先事項上投入更多資金。
對於美國能否在中國入侵台灣時提供迅速有效的幫助，川普表示過懷疑。「台灣的情況很
棘手。」他在接受《華盛頓郵報》採訪時說。「別忘了，台灣離美國有9000英里遠。」
這樣的表述「無疑就是在說，聽著，你必須增加國防預算。這意味著你要購買更多的美國
武器」，哈德遜研究所高級研究員、曾擔任川普政府國務卿邁克·龐皮歐中國政策顧問的
余茂春說。
台積電和台灣其他主要晶片製造商可能會被川普政府要求將更多生產轉移至美國。（行業
專家表示，川普對台灣半導體製造商的指控毫無根據，並指出台灣公司只是為美國晶片巨
頭提供製造服務。）
Last week, some Taiwanese officials played down the potential harm of the
tariff plans, noting that Mr. Trump has threatened even higher tariffs on
goods from China, which could open up opportunities for Taiwanese businesses.
“For Taiwan, there are actually more pros than cons,” Liu Chin-ching, the
minister in charge of Taiwan’s National Development Council, told lawmakers
on Tuesday. Mr. Trump’s tariff proposals could drive more orders from China
to Taiwan, and encourage Taiwanese manufacturers to leave China, he said.
“The United States will impose technology restrictions to defend its own
interests,” Mr. Liu said, “but Taiwan will basically go along with these
restrictions, and we believe that we will have opportunities to benefit from
them.”
Taiwan will also closely watch Mr. Trump’s response to Russia’s war in
Ukraine.
Taiwan’s government has supported American aid to Ukraine, presenting it as
proof of united resistance to authoritarian threats, whether from Moscow or
possibly Beijing.
上週，一些台灣官員淡化了關稅計劃的潛在危害，指出川普威脅要對來自中國的商品徵收
更高的關稅，這可能會為台灣企業帶來機會。
「對台灣而言其實利多於弊，」台灣國家發展委員會主任委員劉鏡清週二對立委表示。他
說，川普的關稅提議可能會讓更多中國訂單流向台灣，並鼓勵台灣製造商離開中國。
「美國也會做技術的限令，這是為了保障美國的利益，」劉鏡清說，「但基本上台灣可以
在這個技術限令中，我方認為有機會得到好處。」
台灣還將密切關注川普對俄羅斯與烏克蘭戰爭的反應。
台灣政府支持美國對烏克蘭的援助，將其作為團結抵抗威權威脅的證據，無論這一威脅是
來自莫斯科還是北京。
But Mr. Trump has said that he wants to quickly end that war. An abrupt
reduction in help for Ukraine may shake Taiwanese confidence, several experts
said.
“Taiwan’s leaders will view Trump’s handling of Ukraine as an early
warning for whether and how Trump would stand up to Chinese pressure on
Taiwan in the event of crisis,” said Ryan Hass, a former director for China
at the National Security Council under President Barack Obama.
Beijing, for its part, appears poised to exploit any signs of discord between
Washington and Taipei, pressing its message that Taiwanese people cannot rely
on the United States — and should accept unification with China.
“Whether the United States wants to ‘protect Taiwan’ or ‘harm Taiwan,’ I
believe that most Taiwanese compatriots have made their own rational
judgments,” said Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman in Beijing for the Chinese
government office that deals with Taiwan.
Taiwanese people, Ms. Zhu added, “clearly know that the United States always
pursues ‘America First’ and Taiwan may change from a ‘pawn’ to a ‘
sacrificed piece’ at any time.”
但川普表示，他希望迅速結束這場戰爭。多位專家表示，對烏克蘭援助的突然減少可能會
動搖台灣的信心。
「台灣領導人將把川普對烏克蘭的處理視為一個預警，看看在危機發生時，川普是否會以
及如何頂住中國對台灣的壓力，」曾任歐巴馬總統國家安全委員會中國事務主任的萊恩·
哈斯表示。
北京似乎準備利用華盛頓和台北之間任何不和的跡象，強調台灣人不能依賴美國——而應
該接受與中國的統一。
「美國究竟是想『保台』還是『害台』，相信大部分台灣同胞已經作出理智判斷，」中國
國台辦發言人朱鳳蓮表示。
朱鳳蓮還說，台灣人民「清楚知道美國奉行的永遠是『美國優先』，台灣隨時可能從『棋
子』變成『棄子』」。
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/10/world/asia/taiwan-trump-us-support.html