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In a blow to China, Taiwan’s president coasts to a second term
HER VICTORY was expected but not, perhaps, its margin. Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’
s president, won a second four-year term in a landslide on January 11th. She
drew over 8m votes, more than any candidate has received in any of the seven
direct elections held since 1996.
她獲得預期的勝利，但沒料是如此懸殊的差距。蔡英文，在1月11日以壓倒性的勝
利，贏得她下一個四年的任期。她得到了超過800萬的選票，這是自從台灣1996直
選的7屆以來，最高的得票。
Ms Tsai, Taiwan’s first female president, scooped 57% of the votes cast,
against 39% for her main opponent, Han Kuo-yu of the pro-China Kuomintang
(KMT). A third candidate, James Soong, also seen as pro-China, took around
4%. In simultaneous elections for the island’s parliament, the Legislative
Yuan, always likely to be much tighter, her Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) won with a reduced majority. It will have 61 of the body’s 113 seats,
down from 68.
蔡英文做為台灣第一位女性總統，以57%的得票率勝過了她的主要對手，親中的KMT
候選人韓導的39%。第三位候選人，同樣也是親中政黨提名的宋神掌，則是得到了4%。
與此同時進行的立法院選舉選情更為緊張，她所屬的DPP拿下了113席中的61席成為
多數黨，但是席次比上一次的68席更少。
Ms Tsai’s triumph will infuriate China, which claims Taiwan as its own
territory. Ever since she took office in 2016, it has been doing what it can
to put pressure on voters to reject the DPP, which has traditionally favoured
independence from China. To this end, China has staged military exercises,
including bomber-jet flights near Taiwan, and waged a diplomatic campaign to
isolate it internationally. Since 2016 it has poached seven of the developing
countries that give diplomatic recognition to Taiwan, reducing their total
number to 15.
蔡女士的勝選將會激怒中國，因為中國一再宣稱台灣是中國的領土。從她2016年首次
當選以來，中國即對台灣的選民施加各種手段，舉行軍事演習、軍機繞台以及收買台灣
邦交國等等，來讓他們對傳統上有台獨傾向的DPP有反感。自2016年以來已經將台灣的
7個邦交國挖走，使台灣邦交國目前只剩下15個。
The campaign seemed at first to be working. Just over a year ago, Ms Tsai’s
popularity was dwindling. The DPP took a thrashing in municipal elections in
November 2018 and she was forced to step down as the party’s chairwoman. Two
factors help explain the turnaround in her political fortunes since then.
不過一年以前，蔡英文的支持度暴跌。DPP在2018年11月的地方首長大選中遭到重擊，蔡
也被迫辭去黨主席的位置，有兩大因素可以解釋他怎麼扭轉她的政治命運。
Perhaps most important was what has happened in Hong Kong. In January last
year China’s president, Xi Jinping, made a speech reiterating its
long-standing carrot-and-stick approach to Taiwan’s future: the promise of a
version of the “one country, two systems” formula it uses to rule Hong
Kong; and the threat of military invasion should the island take steps
towards formal independence.
最重要的因素或許是在香港發生的事情。在去年一月時習大大向台灣同胞重申了他那
恩威並濟的一國兩制方案，也就是目前在香港施行統治的那套。如果台灣真往正式獨
立的方向走，中國將不惜以武力犯台。
The outbreak in June of months of sometimes violent unrest in Hong Kong’s
reignited fears in Taiwan about its possible future if it did not elect a
leader trusted to protect its sovereignty. Ms Tsai successfully capitalised
on this, and her approval ratings soared. Her opponent, Mr Han, campaigned on
a platform of enriching the island’s economy through closer ties with China.
This enabled her to portray him as untrustworthy and unable to protect the
island’s de facto independence, frequently pointing to a visit Mr Han made
to Beijing’s liaison office in Hong Kong in March. The DPP also criticised
Mr Han for describing Taiwan, in general terms, as part of China.
在六月爆發的香港反送中事件重新點燃了台灣人的恐懼，若台灣人無法選出可信賴
且能夠保護主權的領導人，今日香港就可能成為明日台灣。蔡英文成功地賣了芒果
乾，她的支持度也因此攀升。而她的對手韓導，則是主張經濟上要更靠攏中國才能
讓島民發大財。這讓蔡得以把韓導描述為一個不可信任，而且無法守護台灣實質獨
立的人。韓導由於進過在香港的中聯辦，還有認為台灣屬於一中的理念而飽受DPP的
抨擊。
“The results of this election...have shown that when our sovereignty and
democracy are threatened, the Taiwanese people will shout our determination
even more loudly back,” Ms Tsai told a victory press conference on January
11th.
蔡英文在1月11勝選的記者會上說: 選舉的結果證明了當我們的主權與民主受到威脅
的時候，台灣人會更大聲地展現他們的決心。
The second factor was a transformation in the economic outlook. Since 2000
Taiwan’s voters have been asked to choose between closer economic ties with
China, advocated by the KMT, at the risk of losing the island’s hard-won
autonomy, or a more independence-leaning stance pushed by the DPP, carrying
the risk of economic marginalisation.
第二個因素是經濟情勢的改變。自2000年以來，台灣選民被要求支持下面兩種形式，
認為經濟上應與中國更緊密結合，但可能喪失得來不易的自主性的的KMT，或是因為獨
立傾向，而導致經濟被邊緣化的DPP。
The trade war waged between China and America has changed everything. To
dodge American import tariffs, many Taiwan-owned businesses based in China
have diversified by investing more in South-East Asia—and in Taiwan itself,
where government statistics show that, encouraged by incentives, they have
pledged investment of close to $24bn over the next few years. The growth rate
forecast for this year, 2.72%, should outstrip that of the other former “
Asian Tigers”. For the first time, notes Lai I-chung of the Prospect
Foundation, a security-focused Taiwanese think-tank, Ms Tsai’s security and
economic policies were aligned. This helped the DPP win support from
businesses, normally a KMT bastion.
美中貿易戰改變了一切，為了閃避美國的關稅，許多在中國的台商紛紛轉進到東南亞
或是台灣。依政府的統計資料顯示，回流的台商將在未來幾年投資240億元，預估的經
濟成長率為2.72%，比其他四小龍的成員都還要好。遠景基金會的賴怡忠說: 蔡總統
的國安與經濟政策緊密結合，這幫DPP爭取到更多以往被視為KMT鐵票的生意人的支持。
Nathan Batto of Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s leading research institute, notes
that Ms Tsai also won support by proving that she could deepen ties with
America, the ultimate guarantor of Taiwan’s security. In 2019, for the first
time since 1979, when America switched recognition from Taiwan to China,
America and Taiwan’s national security advisers met face-to-face, and
America sold Taiwan 66 F-16 fighter jets.
中研院的Nathan Batto說: 蔡英文向美方證明了她能深化台美關係，而得到了實質
爸爸美國的支持。自1979年台美斷交以來，首次國家安全顧問面對面的談話，美方
更賣給台灣66架F-16的戰機。
As Ms Tsai had a good year internationally, Mr Batto points out that Mr Han
had a bad one at home. He shot to political stardom in 2018, when, after 16
years out of national politics, his folksy manner helped him pull off an
electoral upset to become mayor of the southern port city of Kaohsiung. But
last year he annoyed locals by taking a leave of absence after just six
months in office to campaign for the presidency. Formal proceedings to recall
him are already under way. In addition, the KMT’s chairman, Wu Den-yih,
provoked an angry backlash when he put Wu Sz-huai, an unpopular retired
general who supports unification with China, on a list of nominees for
legislative seats that are allocated by proportional representation, making
him a shoo-in.
今年是蔡總統的年(在國際關係上)，相對的，Batto指出韓導可能有個難過的年。
韓導在2018年是個政治巨星，在離開政界16年後，他隨興的個性幫他贏得港都高雄
的市長寶座。但韓導就職市長六個月後就落跑去選總統的行為激怒了高雄市民，一
場進行中的罷免正在等著他。另外，KMT的主席吳敦義，也因為將支持與中國統一的
退將吳斯懷放進不分區安全名單而犯了眾怒。
Based on polling, Mr Batto estimates that in 2019, almost 40% of Taiwanese
people thought that at least part of their identity was Chinese. Mr Wu and
other KMT bosses are expected to offer their resignations this week to atone
for the party’s losses. But Mr Batto thinks the KMT, founded in China in
1919, is unlikely to disappear. And Taiwanese doing business in mainland
China will always need a party like the KMT to represent them, Mr Batto
argues.
根據調查，Batto估計2019年差不多有40%的台灣人認為他們是Chinese。吳主席跟
其他黨務大頭預期會辭職來為敗選負責。但Batto認為這個從1919年就於中國創立
的黨不會消失，對那些在中國工作的台商來說，他們仍需要一個像KMT這樣的黨來
代表它們。
It is not clear how Mr Xi will respond to Ms Tsai’s resounding win. Neither
Mr Lai nor Chao Chien-min, a former senior China-policy official in a KMT
administration, think it will resort to military action or other dramatic
moves. Instead, they say, there will probably be more of the same:
diplomatic-isolation campaigns and military exercises in the neighbourhood.
Ms Tsai can be expected to be at pains not to provoke China. But for many in
Beijing, her victory is provocation enough.
目前還不清楚習大大會怎麼回應蔡英文的狂勝，賴怡忠或KMT的中國政策專家趙建民
都不認為中國會以軍事行動或是過激手段來回應。相對地，可能就跟過去一樣，在外
交孤立台灣、持續在周遭軍事演習。蔡英文應該還是如預期般，要忍耐著以避免激怒
中國，但對北京來說，她的勝選就已經夠讓人森七七的了。