借標題問一下，我先承認我不懂投票制度和這些數據
只是看書的註腳(就是我上一篇說記者提到的大數據的書)
(書名: Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet can tell
about who we really are)
有一篇關於四年前川普支持者的紐約時報分析文章：
Donald Trump’s Strongest Supporters: A Certain Kind of Democrat
(懶得縮網址，自己google就有)
這篇文章的一個段落和底下有一個長條圖
Trump Strongest Among Voters at Periphery of Republican Coalition
裡面提到
Mr. Trump appears to hold his greatest strength among people like these —
registered Democrats who identify as Republican leaners — with 43 percent
of their support, according to the Civis data. Similarly, many of Mr. Trump’
s best states are those with a long tradition of Democrats who vote
Republican in presidential elections, like West Virginia.
兩個關於板上在講的提早投票調查問題
1.註冊民主黨一定是投民主黨嗎？還是說只是名義上民主黨黨籍？
要不然上面這篇文章說的註冊民主黨但是偏共和黨然後投川普是哪來的？
2.
所以板上說的數字，是討論註冊哪個黨還是投誰？
是不是有可能發生很嚴重的誤判？
==
這篇文章還說
Another turnout challenge for Mr. Trump is that he commands the support of
many people who are unlikely to vote. Civis found him winning 40 percent of
the vote among those it gave less than a 20 percent chance of participating
in the general election — let alone in the primary. He held 29 percent among
those who had greater than an 80 percent chance of voting in the November
election.
前一篇有推文同意說這次的投票率可能會高很多，當然目前主流媒體似乎是假定中立選民
不多或是都被川普嚇跑了，但是如果實際上仍然和四年前一樣是中立選民比較愛川普，那
民主黨是不是該感到憂慮？