我發現川粉並非不信民調
只是相信他們喜歡的民調
比如這家
據說2016神準
但是被左膠538列為c級booksin
那538把這家列成c總有理由吧
於是我看了下2018 mid term這家參議員的poll
Arizona Senate - McSally 47.6 vs. Sinema 50.0 D+2.4 (WRONG PREDICTION)
Nov 4 – 5 Trafalgar Group (R) McSally 47, Sinema 45 McSally (R) +2.0
bias R +4.4!
Florida Senate - Scott 50.0 vs. Nelson 49.9 R+0.1
Nov 4 – 5 Trafalgar Group (R) Nelson 47, Scott 49 Scott (R) +2.0
bias R +1.9
Indiana Senate - Braun 50.8 vs. Donnelly 44.9 R+5.9 (WRONG PREDICTION)
Jul 31 – Aug 7 Trafalgar Group (R) Donnelly 51, Braun 39 Donnelly (D) +12.0
bias D +17.9!!
Michigan Senate - James 45.8 vs. Stabenow 52.3 D+6.5
Nov 2 – 5 Trafalgar Group (R) Stabenow 53, James 44 Stabenow (D) +9.0
bias D +2.5
Missouri Senate - Hawley 51.4 vs. McCaskill 45.6 R+5.8
Oct 29 – Nov 4 Trafalgar Group (R) Hawley 48, McCaskill 44 Hawley (R) +4.0
bias D +1.8
Montana Senate - Rosendale 46.8 vs. Tester 50.3 D+3.5
Nov 2 – 5 Trafalgar Group (R) Tester 50, Rosendale 49 Tester (D) +1.0
bias R +2.5
Nevada Senate - Heller 45.4 vs. Rosen 50.4 D+5.0 (WRONG PREDICTION)
Oct 29 – Nov 1 Trafalgar Group (R) Heller 49, Rosen 46 Heller (R) +3.0
bias R +8.0!!
North Dakota Senate - Cramer 55.1 vs. Heitkamp 44.3 R+10.8
Oct 23 – 24 Trafalgar Group (R) Cramer 54, Heitkamp 45 Cramer (R) +9.0
bias D +1.8
Texas Senate - Cruz 50.9 vs. O'Rourke 48.3 R+2.6
Nov 3 – 5 Trafalgar Group (R) Cruz 52, O'Rourke 43 Cruz (R) +9.0
bias R +6.4!
West Virginia Senate - Morrisey 46.3 vs. Manchin 49.6 D+3.3
Jul 13 – 16 Trafalgar Group (R)* Manchin 50, Morrisey 40 Manchin (D) +10.0
bias D +6.7!
這家期中選舉參議院做了10個州的poll，錯了3個
選前（11月）做的7個裡面錯2兩個，幾乎是三分之一的錯誤率
尤其以nevada的d+5做到r+3最為離譜
cruz的+2.6在選前做到+9也不遑多讓
仔細觀察，這家的手法似乎4這樣:
如果有一方明顯領先的州
選前很久瞎丟個數字出來，簡直就是信手胡作
關鍵的拉鋸州，毫無例外的在選前偷偷給共和黨從兩趴到八趴修正帶風向
大概4這樣
單純從結果討論，完全沒有刺激川粉的意思
感恩～