https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwan-china-true-sources-deterrence
原文寫的又臭又長
這邊幫大家節錄跟台灣總統大選比較相關的段落
“Regardless of who is elected Taiwan’s next president, Taipei will need to con
vincingly reassure Beijing that it has no intention of fundamentally altering th
e status quo. But the need for such guarantees will grow in the event of the vic
tory of Lai, the DPP candidate; Chinese officials deeply mistrust him since he h
as endorsed the pursuit of formal independence for Taiwan in the past.”
“The pledge that Lai made, in an October 2023 speech in Taipei at a dinner atte
nded by nearly 100 foreign dignitaries and guests, to maintain Tsai’s cross-str
ait policy, with its emphasis on refusing both to bow to Chinese pressure and to
provoke Beijing, is a good start. If elected, Lai could use his inaugural addre
ss to reaffirm the commitments Tsai made in her inaugural speech in 2016 to cond
uct cross-strait affairs in accordance with the Republic of China’s constitutio
n and the 1992 act governing relations between the two sides of the strait, Taip
ei’s law on how the island should manage relations with Beijing.”
“In August, Lai took a step in the right direction when he made his stance on t
he naming question clear: “President Tsai has used the term Republic of China (
Taiwan) to describe our country. I will continue to do so in the future.” This
and other statements provide China with rhetorical assurance, but because his pa
rty’s 1991 charter still calls for the creation of a “Republic of Taiwan” and
a new constitution, doubts persist in Beijing about his willingness to hold to
this position as president. If he wins the election, Lai should consider revisit
ing a proposal made by DPP legislators in 2014 to suspend the independence claus
e in the 1991 party charter, a nonbinding and reversible step that would give an
y rhetorical commitment to the status quo more weight and credibility. Such a st
ep could also be part of a gradual, reciprocal process to reduce tensions and bu
ild trust, as advocated by Richard Bush, the former chairman of the American Ins
titute in Taiwan.”
“Taiwan has laudably begun to strengthen its defenses under Tsai, but her admin
istration has also tactfully refrained from pushing pro-independence initiatives
. That marks a departure from her DPP predecessor as president, Chen Shui-bian,
who held a referendum in 2008 on pursuing membership in the United Nations under
the name Taiwan, rather than the Republic of China, which was rightly interpret
ed by both Beijing and Washington as a ploy to promote independence.”
這篇文章其實主要在講美國在兩岸的角色應該是一個credible assurance 而不是對中國的m
ilitary threat
然後台灣總統是誰其實不重要 只要繼續走目前的ROC路線就好