[外絮] Splitpush:B組Preview與預測

作者: wyner (外嫩)   2016-09-19 14:51:04
重點翻 其它自己看
http://splitpush.net/articles/lol/group-no-name-worlds-2016-group-b-preview/
It does not happen often, but Group B is a group in which the highest seeded
team coming into the tournament is not the favorite to exit the group in
first place. Not only that, but a majority of analysts have actually
predicted that the Flash Wolves will not make it out of the group stage. For
a team that surprised many last year and have had success at this year’s MSI
the Flash Wolves are the perceived weakest first seed team.
Most teams that are entering Group B are doing so with a lot to prove. SK
Telecom enter trying to show that their lost to KT was a fluke and look to
take their third World Championship title. Cloud 9 enter hoping to show that
there is more to the squad than what they showed during the final against
TSM. I MAY enter trying to prove that the formed sister team of EDG can
compete with the worlds best. Finally Flash Wolves are hoping to show once
again that the LMS is not a region to be counted out.
B組最高種子不被看好,甚至許多(歐美)分析師跟我甚至不看好他們可以小組賽出線
Flash Wolves
Roster:
Top– Lihong “MMD” Yu
Jungle– Hung “Karsa” Hau-Hsuan
Mid– Huang “Maple” Yi-Tang
AD Carry– Hsiung “NL” Wen-An
Support– Hu “SwordArt” Shuo-Jie
Strengths:
優點:
1.) Maple and Karsa
Much like TSM, last years Flash Wolves’ players are questionable in terms of
how they will stack up against international talent at Worlds. However their
mid laner “Maple” is the only player who is projected to perform to a very
high level. Ever since he burst onto the scene Maple has been considered at
multiple points one of the best mid laners in the world. In a group full a
strong mid laners it will be a real test for Maple to see just how good he
can do while trying to carry his team. This is very apparent when you see
that most of the gold on the team is funneled into Maple and Karsa.
Karsa is a slightly different story when it comes to his performance. Much
like how I view Xmithie within CLG, Karsa seems to be a player who might be
overrated. That is not to say he is a bad jungler because if we are being
honest with the lack of jungle talent at this year’s Worlds Karsa is one of
the best in the tournament. However I think Karsa really only works well with
Maple. He can effectively function within Flash Wolves because he correctly
understands how to pressure the mid lane and propel Maple ahead of his
opponent. Bengi is another jungler that comes to mind where he is really only
on the team because he functions well within; not because he is inherently
talented as a jungler.
中野
Maple去年很猛 今年也是少數被看好的選手 看他對上頂尖選手可以多凱瑞
對Karsa的看法就像我對空之王"Ximithe"的看法一樣;Karsa過譽了
但我也不是說Karsa廢,而是今年其他JG太爛
2.) Best of 1’s
Flash Wolves are a team that have historically performed better in a best of
one scenario. Group stage has the potential of allowing a team that might not
be better than their opponent to pull out an upset win in one game. This is a
very likely scenario for the Flash Wolves seeing as how they might repeat
their MSI performance and take games off of SKT. However I don’t believe
that teams such as Cloud 9 and SKT will allow Flash Wolves to get the better
of them.
循環賽很猛 之前虐過Rox跟Skt
Weaknesses:
弱點:
1.) The Bottom Lane
It is no secret that even when the Flash Wolves were dominating in the LMS
their weak point has always been the bottom lane. NL and SwordArt have just
been performing to the bare minimum of what is expected. They try to hold the
lane and allow Karsa and Maple to carry the rest of the game. However in
Group B this might not be the biggest problem since beyond SKT’s bottom lane
the other three teams don’t really have star bottom lanes themselves.
下路就是努力夾緊等凱瑞
2.) Top Lane Talent in Group B
There really is no way around it, MMD is going to have a rough time at this
tournament. Apart from the mid lane the top laners in group B are some of the
best in the tournament. Duke on SKT and Impact on C9 are looking to prove
that they are some of the best players at their positions. Even Amazing J who
isnt a very carry oriented top laner will be a difficult match up for MMD to
deal with. MMD has never been the star of Flash Wolves, but he will really
have to show up if he doesn’t want to get flattened.
對上Duke跟Impact,我看MMD慘了歐,更不要說相對菜的神J奇對MMD也是艱難的挑戰R
3.) State of the LMS
I again really cannot stress enough the weakness of the LMS region as a whole
when trying to judge how well Flash Wolves will do at Worlds. Whenever top
teams are continually swapping places in the standings with lower tier teams
you have a problem. I do believe that much like in Europe with Giants Gaming
the 6.15 patch greatly effected the matches in the LMS. However my suspicion
is that there is more than just the patch changes to this story. The Flash
Wolves and LMS as a whole appear to be a shell of their former selves and
will have to prove many wrong if they don’t want that to be the story line
of their Worlds run this year.
LMS的上層隊伍一直換一定有問題,如果他們要證明我是錯的,LMS要好好努力了喔
SK Telecom T1
Roster:
Top – Lee “Duke” Ho-Seong
Jungle – Kang “Blank” Sun-gu
Jungle – Bae “Bengi” Seong-ung
Mid – Lee “Faker” Sang-hyeok
AD Carry – Bae “Bang” Jun-sik
Support – Lee “Wolf” Jae-wan
Strengths:
1.) League’s Ultimate Outlier
Group B is in contention for the best collection of Mid lane talent of any
group at Worlds this year. Summer was not Faker’s best split, but he
continually put out great performances and his impact on SKT cannot be over
looked; nor will any team over look the best player to ever play the game.
Faker is expected to do what he has always done since his first day on the
rift; perform. That being said players such as Jensen in C9 and Maple on
Flash Wolves are hungry and looking to make their mark in league history.
Their first step will be to take down the man who seems to be immune to meta
shifts. Faker will no doubt perform and the question more lies in how hard
will his team make his job for him.
雖然這組強的中路很多,夏季賽Faker也沒表現的很好
但、但他是Faker耶,即使這樣我們還是看好Faker啦
2.) Bang and Wolf
The bottom lane combo of Bang and Wolf are perhaps the oldest duo lane at
Worlds. These guys have been a duo lane all the way back to 2013 on SKT’s
sister team. Bang continues to make the case for why he is always in the
discussion for the world’s best ADC. The meta shift for ADC’s has yet to
truly be relieved, but the recent nerfs to picks such as his famous Sivir
might hit him hard.
Wolf has been the more inconsistent player of the two with a very lack luster
playoff performance and MSI showing earlier this year. However in the truly
important matches Wolf manages to pull it all together and be the play maker
that his team needs him to be.
Bang最強ADC,就像MSI跟去年WS一樣;SKT下路,穩的
3.) Kkoma
In terms of infrastructure the Korean teams have always been leaps and bounds
ahead of pretty much every other region. SKT has perhaps the best coaching
staff in the game in Head Coach “LIES” and Kkoma. He is the reason SKT
draft so well and seem to always have a counter pick ready for any situation.
It is hard to know what SKT would be like without Kkoma behind them, but rest
assured he has his team’s back.
世界上最好的教練群扣馬
Weaknesses:
弱點
1.) Jungle Situation
SKT has historically been a team that has sacrificed some of their other
positions for the sake of Faker in the mid lane. Perhaps the most effected
position by this is the jungle. Blank was brought into the jungle to replace
Bengi after it became very apparent that for SKT to win in a jungle carry
meta they needed a stronger carry jungler. However Blank has been performing
in what has to be the award for most inconsistent player of 2016.
Blank has had just as many great carry performances as he has questionable
games and plays where you wonder why he is even on the team. Coach Kkoma made
a comment that “Bengi could see play at any time.” That really makes you
wonder how stable the jungle position is for SKT.
However if you look at the rest of the group SKT’s most obvious weakness
probably wont be exploited very much. Against the likes of Meteos and Karsa
who have both had similar inconsistent splits Blank will probably be safe. It
does also remain to be seen how much of a shift the jungle meta will have at
worlds and how it will affect all the teams.
雖然Skt的JG算是弱點,但是看看B組的對手,這回Blank SAFE了,安啦!
I MAY
Roster:
Top – Shek “AmazingJ” Wai Ho
Jungle – Fan “Avoidless” Zeon Wai
Mid – Kang “Athena” Ha-Woon
AD Carry – Xie “JinJiao” Jin-Shan
Support – Yun “Road” Han-Gil
Strengths:
1.) Road
Most players on I MAY had sort of been living in the shadow of their star Top
laner AmazingJ. However for their Support Road most of the talk about their
recent stellar play has come due to his excellent performances. Perhaps the
best player on the team Road is one of the best support players at Worlds.
His vision control allows for play making roams with jungler Avoidless and
consistently provides critical advantages for his team. In lane he is
aggressive and likes to fight like most Chinese players and adds a level of
pressure to the enemy laners. If there is one player that Group B should
watch out for its Road
雖然隊上很多人都活在神J奇陰影下,但Road最近很神,可能是整個隊伍最神的
他的視野控制跟無法避免的輔野連動,那真的不再話下
線上也很有進攻性,會給對面很多壓力,就像許多中國選手一樣
2.) AmazingJ
Heavily criticized for his poor performance at last year’s worlds AmazingJ
was a player that could not adapt to the carry top laner meta. However for
most of the summer split AmazingJ has not had to deal with a majority of the
problems that plagued him last year. He has been a rock for his team and a
strong experienced leader helping his team to victory against unlikely odds.
雖然去年表現一直被噴,不過最近有改善了,Edward品質,堅若磐石
3.) No End in Sight
To me teams that can show constant and steady growth in their gameplay are
far more scary than teams that have had previous success. I MAY are a team
that has continued to get better and better as the weeks went on and I
believe that this will continue to be the case. A lot of people undervalue
this squad, but there is a real chance that they shake up the standings in
group B. Make no mistake these guys wont just roll over and they will need to
be taken seriously.
看不到天花板的持續進步!可能會長的跟天一樣高!B組的各位要小心了
Weaknesses:
1.) You Can’t Take the China out of the Chinese
A big concern that I have for all of the Chinese teams coming in to Worlds is
whether or not they will continue to play that signature style. China has
always been an aggressive region where they are famous for always wanting to
fight each other. A region that has weird meta picks and prefers to out team
fight the enemy rather than out macro. MSI was a stunning tournament because
all of the other teams in attendance opted into that skirmish style which was
bizarre to say the least. If I MAY want to win more than a couple games in
groups they will need to work on their macro.
你知道我知道,中國就是很激進整天很想打架,但別人不一定會跟你打
中國行得通對別人不一定有用
2.) Athena
I-MAY are not a team with great individual talent and Athena is perhaps the
most underwhelming player on the team at the moment. This is not to say that
he is a bad player, but taking a look at his competition in the group it will
not be easy. Faker, Jensen, and Maple are three of the best mid laners at the
entire tournament. Athena will really have to improve and show us something
if he doesn’t want to get dominated throughout the Tournament.
IMay的個人技巧沒很神,不是說Athena爛,可是看看他的對手
Faker、Maple、Jensen,Athena你要注意了
Cloud 9
Roster:
Top – Jung “Impact” Eon-yeong
Jungle – William “Meteos” Hartman
Mid – Nicolaj “Jensen” Jensen
AD Carry – Zackary “Sneaky” Scuderi
Support – Andy “Smoothie” Ta
Strengths:
1.) Top Die
When the lane swap meta died a lot of analysts were wondering how Cloud 9
would be affected by the changes. For one player in particular the changes
seem to have unlocked a sleeping giant. Impact has been a monster the last
few months putting out consistently insane performances on Gnar, Ekko, Shen,
and many more. In the playoffs and gauntlet alone Impact earned himself 18
individual solo kills. This guy is for sure the best player on the team at
the moment and will most likely be the best Top laner in Group B.
Apart from perhaps Duke on SKT there really isn’t another Top laner who
seems ready to match the performance level that Impact is operating at
currently. The amount of pressure that Impact draws makes him a sponge for
the enemy Jungler. However Impact has been playing so long and has so much
experience at the highest level that he seems to just absorb the ganks. This
allows Meteos the pressure the mid and bottom lane as well as the enemy
Jungle. Impact is very scary coming into Worlds and just might be able to
carry C9 out of Groups.
Impact真的很神,而且現在你不能換線,甚至Duke看起來也扛不住我們大Impact的威力
世界上的各位小心點,可怕的Impact來啦!
2.) Jensen
It has been no secret to any team ever since C9 acquired Jensen as a player
that he has been the focal point of the team. A simple look at C9’s gold
distribution shows that they funnel more gold in Jensen than another player
in the NA LCS. There is a reason that Jensen was the most ganked mid laner in
NA for all of summer. Teams identified that he was key to C9’s victories and
tried to attack him. However in fashion similar to Impact Jensen often times
can handle the pressure very well; and even turn a gank against him into a
kill.
Though Jensen might be too lane focused and not roam with Meteos as much as
he should to objectives he is still a monster. A deep champion pool,
noticeably Vlad is absent though, and often regarded as one of the best
mechanical players in the region Jensen will be able to go toe to toe will
Faker and Maple in Group B. The question then becomes how much time Meteos
pressures the mid lane for Jensen to snowball and take over the game. It is
hard to imagine that Jensen under performs at Worlds, but he is hoping to
make it out of groups this time.
Jensen一直被針對已經是公開的秘密了,如果你有看金錢分配就知道Jensen對C9有多重要
雖然他不常跑線,但有深不見底的角色池,又被視為微操最好的選手之一
很難想像這次Jensen表現不好,這次小組賽出線有望!
3.) Reapered
Often regarded as one of the best minds on the game Reapered came into the
Cloud 9 organization with a lot of work on his hands. He had to take a group
of players that seemingly didn’t function as a team in game without
legendary shotcaller Hai and transform them into a world class squad. Long
story short Reapered has been successful in building C9 into a team rather
than a rag tag group of solo queue players.
He and the other coaching staff of Cloud 9 including their new sports
psychologist are an advantage that cannot be over looked. Reapered is often
credited with the the Morgana counterpick against Faker by EDG at MSI last
year which lead EDG to win the tournament. Cloud 9 have exceptional drafts
due to Reapered and will try to maintain that reputation on the world stage.
去年Reapered就有神來一筆的魔干娜Counter Faker的LB的想法
過去紀錄很棒,甚至引進心理學家等先進的技術
Weaknesses:
弱點
1.) Meteos
A lot of people were wondering about the return of the super star former
Jungler to the Cloud 9 starting roster. The were a lot of people who wondered
how his particular style of play would work in the modern meta. However it
seems for the most part that Meteos has silenced those critics with continued
excellent performances on Rek Sai and Gragas. Meteos has sort of had the
opposite performance this split as Impact as had with him seemingly getting
slightly worse every time he plays. This was especially apparent in the
finals against TSM where he not only tried to force plays and went too deep,
but he got completely dominated by Svenskeren in the Jungle.
Though he picked up his play in the gauntlet the fact that he is falling back
on old comfort picks such as Zac is a worrying trend. I don’t think that the
Junglers in Group B will challenge Meteos very much though seeing as how they
all have their own problems coming into Worlds. If there is a weak player for
Cloud 9; at the moment it is Meteos.
雖然對TSM的Match有點進退失據搞得自己野區崩盤
但看不出B組的Jungle能對Meteos造成任何威脅
如果硬要選一個弱點的話還是只好挑Meteos
2.) Reactive vs Proactive
Cloud 9 all season long has had a problem taking early objectives, such as
dragon, and converting the advantages that they do get into bigger leads. To
their credit in their gauntlet series against Immortals C9 did seemingly
being to gain confidence and take several early dragons and capitalize on
their advantages. Unfortunately more needs to be seen if C9 has actually
outgrown their passive playstyle. They prefer to play for late game and can
often stall out a game very effectively, but in a group with SKT who are
famous for systematically closing out games C9 will need to do better
C9前期目標一直掌握得不錯,但有時候End Game掌握得不好變得很被動
常常搞的要玩到大後期,這是C9需要加強的地方
Projected Outcomes:
預測結果
Scenario A: Consensus
第一種情況:大家的共識
1.) SKT (6-0)
2.) C9 (4-2)
3.) FW (2-4)
4.) I MAY (0-6)
This is the group prediction that I see fly around the most, while I dont
think that is is completely wrong it doesn’t give enough credit the the FW
and I MAY as well as gives too much credit to SKT.
大家的共識!沒什麼好戰的!
雖然有點太看不起FW跟IMAY,有點太看得起SKT
Scenario B: Most Likely
第二種情況:最有可能
1.) SKT (5-1)
2.) C9 (4-2)
3.) FW (3-3)
4.) I MAY (0-6)
Not a bad prediction, but again I feel that I MAY wont go down so easily, nor
do I believe that FW are that clean.
不差的預測,不過感覺IMAY沒這麼廢
Scenario C: My Prediction
第三種情況:我的預測
1.) SKT (6-1)
2.) C9 (5-2)
3.) FW (1-5)
4.) I MAY (1-5)
I believe that this is the most likely way that groups will play out. I
believe that C9 and SKT wont lose games to FW and I MAY but will be very
competitive with one another forcing a tie breaker which SKT will win.
我相信這是最後小組的成績!SKT跟C9一場都不會輸給FW跟IMAY
最後SKT跟C9打加賽而SKT勝出,完全符合我的劇本!
Scenario D: Possible
第四種情況:也是有機會
1.) C9 (5-1)
2.) SKT (4-2)
3.) I MAY (2-4)
4.) FW (1-5)
Totally possible if Cloud 9 outperforms and SKT drops the ball a bit as well
as I MAY can take several games in this group.
如果C9表現的很好而SKT表現得稍微有點掉漆,這個情況也是完全有可能的!
Scenario E: Unlikely
第五種情況:不太可能啦
1.) SKT (4-2)
2.) FW (4-3)
3.) C9 (3-4)
4.) I MAY (2-4)
If a very volatile group stage such as group B last year plays out this could
play out but I highly doubt it.
如果跟去年一樣大家戰成一團的情況,不過建議各位是不要想了,不太可能啦
Conclusion:
All in all I think that Group B is pretty competitive and will be very
exciting to watch at this years Worlds. I do believe that the fall of Flash
Wolves and talent on SKT and Cloud 9 will allow them to make it out of the
group with SKT being in first.
我認為B組的競爭很激烈也很刺激!
根據我的預測(87%信心水準)
閃電狼會閃尿,C9(跟Skt)會展現他們的實力打進八強,Skt會小組第一
作者: kissyourbird (洨)   2016-09-19 14:55:00
IM菜歸菜 不過沒很爛,其實神奇J的口袋算這組上路最多的,可能b/p也有點奇招
作者: starfishkira (死搭魚)   2016-09-19 15:06:00
感謝冥燈,我狼希望無窮
作者: sam601sam601 (Frame)   2016-09-19 15:07:00
別奶我C9 大起大落或不如預測都有人要酸
作者: jasonchangki (阿特拉斯聳聳肩)   2016-09-19 16:58:00
叉燒:我們就是比較爛的隊伍
作者: gjlcky098875 (Condolence)   2016-09-19 17:45:00
IM不可能那麼弱好嗎 打C9少說拿一場
作者: swingingbear (Bear~XD)   2016-09-19 19:44:00
上層隊伍的確一直換啊 jt整個季後賽打完跟87一樣

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