http://tinyurl.com/5c9e6z
By Alex Eisenberg
April 2, 2008
As sort of a preview to the upcoming articles about the most overrated
prospects in baseball, I wanted to look at a pitcher that I tend to think
talent evaluators overrate: Homer Bailey. The questions I have about Bailey are
more in relation to his overall numbers and his mental make-up than about the
quality of his stuff.
When he's at his best, Bailey's fastball can be electric. He can consistently
pump 95, 96, and 97 mph fastballs by hitters and the pitch can have a sneaky
quality to it as it explodes out of Bailey's hand.
This past year, however, Bailey saw his velocity drop and his control regress.
Many blamed his regression on a groin injury he suffered on June 26th and there
is evidence that this was indeed the case. However, I have video before
Bailey's groin injury that suggests the explosion Bailey showed on his fastball
in 2006 was not there in 2007, or at least not consistently there, nor was
there much consistency of his command.
Now, we should understand the biases of using just one game to look at Bailey's
stuff. Sample size is a major issue here and that concern is noted. On the left
is Bailey on 6/4/07, while Bailey in the 2006 Future's Game is on the right. If
any of the following clips have their timing thrown off, just refresh the
browser.
來談談一位我認為被高估的新秀:Homer Bailey。我對他的疑問主要是在整體的成績和心理
建設而不是關於stuff的部份。
當他狀況好時，速球可以輕鬆投到97 mph帶有很好的尾勁。然而，去年Bailey的球速掉了
、控球也變差了。很多人認為鼠蹊部的受傷是主要原因。但07年受傷前的影片顯示06年和
07年Bailey的速球差異不只是受傷的關係。
左邊的影片是Bailey在6/4/07的比賽，右邊的影片是Bailey在2006 Future's Game的投球
。
Do you agree that Bailey's fastball on the left has less life on it? The
mechanics Bailey displays in each clip are pretty similar, but two small
differences may account for his drop in velocity:
同不同意06年的Bailey比較猛？投球動作大致上看來很像，但有兩點小小的不同。
1. Arm Action - the clips are synchronized to release:
I prefer Bailey's arm action in 06 because he has a better scap load, an
overall smoother arm action, and a cleaner elbow rotation into release. The
scap load helps a pitcher in terms of velocity by increasing arm speed, while
an arm action that is smoother overall without a loss in momentum is important
for both velocity and injury prevention. Bailey does have a shorter arm action
in 2007, but Bailey's arm in 06 covers more distance in roughly the same amount
of time than his arm in 07
揮臂：我比較喜歡06年的Bailey，因為手臂-肩膀拉的比較大，整體動作比較順暢，而且手
肘旋轉比較乾淨。手臂後拉可以幫助提升揮臂速度，而簡潔的揮臂動作可以降低受傷風險
。07年的Bailey揮臂是比較短，但06年的揮臂速度比較快。
2. Finish/Extension/Upper Body Tilt - the clips are again synchronized to
release:
See how the 06 version is more out in front, has the better upper body tilt,
and therefore more extension? By achieving excellent extension, and combined
with his incredibly long arms, Bailey is releasing the ball a little closer to
home plate than most other pitchers are able to and because of this, as well as
a more aggressive finish, Bailey's fastball becomes more explosive and jumps on
the hitter much more quickly.
Bailey also has a plus curveball of the power variety in that the bottom drops
out as it approaches the batter. Again, when Bailey gets excellent extension,
it helps his off-speed stuff play up as well. His change-up is mostly a show-me
pitch right now, but it is slowly improving to average quality.
For a guy with such electric stuff, Bailey's overall numbers don't capture that
completely. The low amount of hits is a positive, and the K% of 27 in both 05
and 06 is also very good, but I think his K% should be higher given how good
his stuff is. In addition, his K% was just 22.1 last year. His control and
command improved dramatically in 2006, but regressed this past year. Bailey has
also had a BB% of less than 10 at just one minor league level over his career.
I do realize he was injured for a chunk of last year, but his numbers were not
as impressive as they should have been considering the quality of his stuff.
看看06年的影片，Bailey身體的前傾是不是做的比較好？好的身體前傾加上他超長的手臂
，Bailey的放球點可以離本壘板更近，更加強化速球的威力。
Bailey還有一顆plus curveball。同樣的，好的身體前傾也能強化曲球的威力。他現在的
變速球還只是配菜，但會慢慢進化到平均水準。
對一個stuff這麼棒的球員來說，Bailey的成績實在不能讓人滿意。很少的被安打和05、
06年 27K%是不錯的數字，但我覺得還能再更好，而去年他的K%只有22.1。前年的控球大有
進步，但去年又退回來了。他BB%只在一個小聯盟層級低於10。去年他是受傷了，但無論如
何，他的成績就是還不夠好。
Mental Make-Up
I normally wouldn't maket too big a deal about a pitcher's mental make-up. I
view it as a plus or minus but I would like see actual talent and results
before using reports on a player's mental make-up to draw opinions about a
prospect. My opinion is that reports on the make-up of a player are way too
subjective of a way to judge a player because nobody can get inside the head of
a player to get a feel for the exact thought processes of that player.
But this report from Baseball America's Scout's View, given before the 2007
season, gives me some pause:
"I think he out thinks himself sometimes. His stuff is so overpowering
. . . when I saw him the last time, he started just about every hitter out
with curveballs. He’d get behind guys 2-0, 3-0—guys that are hitting
eighth in the lineup—and you kind of think to yourself, ‘Why isn’t this
guy just going right after these guys and do it?
He might have better stuff, but if there's one guy to be wary of in terms
of will stuff exceed performance, I think this is a guy who might do it."
With all that being said, making the case for Bailey is rather simple. He is a
tall, athletic pitcher with long arms and has the ability to generate
tremendous arm speed. When he is on his game, he has electric stuff. There are
some rough edges, but nothing that can't be smoothed out.
心理：一般說來，我不是太重視這方面。心理素質可能有加分或扣分，但我通常會先研究
投手的stuff和成績。我是覺得心理素質方面的報告能告訴我們的東西太少了。
但這篇Baseball America的球探報告是這麼說的： "我想這這傢伙有時想太多了，他有很
好的stuff...上次我看到他時，他只用曲球對付每個打者。他球數落後給那些自動出局數
。你有時會想:難道他就不能好好投球嗎？
他是有很好的stuff，但如果要說，哪一位選手的表現會不符期待，我想那就是他。"
我想，在心理的層面，Bailey是還有些不足的地方，但這些是需要解決的。
Future Outlook
Bailey is a still a terrific prospect. Even with his flaws, we should still
point out how young he is at 21 (turning 22 in May). However, based on
consistency and performance issues, to go along with questions of how well he
can "pitch" and not just "throw", we should ask ourselves just how good we
think Bailey will be. The potential to be a #1 starter is there, but he has
much to do before reaching that level. He could easily settle in as a
dominating at times, but inconsistent #3 starter, which I view as much more
likely than reaching his #1 starter upside.
Grade:
9 Upside, Low/Very Low Probability
7 Mid-Level, Average Probability
5.5 Downside, Low-Average Probability
Bailey還是一位很棒的新秀，即使他有這些缺點，但年輕就是本錢。然而，他必須學會怎
麼"投球"而不是"丟球"。他有成為王牌投手的潛力，但也有很多需要改進的地方。如果不
進步的話，他是有可能成為不太穩定的三號投手。