http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12938
by Steven Goldman
Boston Red Sox: 92-70 (projected 2011 record)
Why they might win: A reloaded and presumably healthy offense invigorated
by Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez will get all the attention, but
PECOTA sees the real improvement as being due to a strong starting
rotation aided by a rebound season from Josh Beckett and a deeper bullpen.
Why they might not win: PECOTA expects the Sox to allow 50 fewer runs than
last year, a tall order if Beckett, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka
don't deliver on past performances. "Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Everyday
Catcher" seems a series unlikely to get a full order of episodes, and
between he and reserve Jason Varitek, opponents may once again run wild.
Player who could surprise: He's already an All-Star, but Adrian Gonzalez
could be due for a real breakout in Fenway Park. Petco Park limited his
offensive output when he was with the Padres; he hit .307/.381/.579 in
Padres road games versus just .267/.367/.442 at home. PECOTA foresees
.281/.379/.502 rates and 31 home runs, but that projection might prove to
be too conservative.
Player who could disappoint: Beckett. A return to his 2007 to 2009 form
(3.71 ERA) would make good on PECOTA's overall pitching prediction, but
back injuries tend to recur. If he and his projected 3.95 ERA are on the
shelf for any period of time, the Sox will have to fall back on the aged
Tim Wakefield or Alfredo Aceves, who has back problems of his own.
New York Yankees: 91-71
Why they might win: With the exceptions of Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher,
several Yankees disappointed at the plate last year and yet they still led
the league in runs scored. They should be potent again this year, with
PECOTA calling for them to lead the division in runs scored. The bullpen,
with its Rafael Soriano-to-Mariano Rivera endgame, should be a standout.
Why they might not win: Because the richest team in baseball has Bartolo
Colon, Sergio Mitre and Freddy Garcia competing for rotation spots after
the Yankees learned that money can't buy you happiness