http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12973
by Ben Lindbergh
Philadelphia Phillies: 91-71 projected 2011 record
Why They Might Win: The Phillies feature the most imposing starting staff
in recent memory. Coupling Cliff Lee with defending Cy Young Award-winner
Roy Halladay gives them a convincing claim to the top two pitchers in the
league, and Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels represent a middle of the rotation
which most teams would gladly exchange their aces for. Altogether, PECOTA
foresees 860 innings with a 3.29 ERA from the Phillies' front four
starters, which would make anything Joe Blanton adds a bonus.
Why They Might Not Win: Although the team is talented, it isn't getting
any younger. With an average batter age of 31.9 and an average pitcher age
of 30.9, last year's Phillies were the league's oldest on both counts, and
aside from losing Jamie Moyer to injury, they did little to lower those
numbers this winter. The roster is built to win now and PECOTA thinks it
will, but with advancing age comes increasing infirmity, so it's possible
that injuries or an extended offensive slump like the one that derailed
them for three weeks late last spring could linger.
Player Who Could Surprise: Scott Mathieson posted a 2.80 ERA in over 60
innings at Triple-A last season, but earned only two (ineffective)
appearances for the big club. PECOTA thinks he can manage a sub-4.00 ERA
in 67 major-league innings, which would be a boon to a fairly thin
bullpen. Of course, with a rotation like that, who needs relievers?
Player Who Could Disappoint: Carlos Ruiz vaulted into the league's
offensive upper echelons at catcher with a .302/.400/.447 triple-slash
line last season. PECOTA doesn't foresee a repeat, calling for a
.259/.349/.391 line from the 32-year-old, a significant decline, if still
a valuable contribution at a weak-hitting position.
Atlanta Braves: 87-75 projected 2011 record
Why They Might Win: With second baseman Dan Uggla in the fold and
projected to lead the club with 29 home runs, the Braves appear set to
outscore the Phillies, and their five returning starters look strong.
Why They Might Not Win: Uggla's arrival isn't all good news, as the
slugger isn't known for his leather (at least not in a good way). Between
his presence at the keystone, Martin Prado's forced relocation to left
field, and a heavier dose of Chipper Jones at third, the Braves stand to
take a hit defensively. They also figure to lose ground in the bullpen,
thanks to the departures of Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, and expected
regression from younger arms. Even if they don't miss Bobby Cox, they
will miss last year's run prevention, since PECOTA expects them to allow
over 70 more runs than they did last season.
Player Who Could Surprise: With Jair Jurrjens and Mike Minor fatigued late
last September, undrafted free-agent find Brandon Beachy was called up to
make three starts, and acquitted himself well after a successful season
split between Double- and Triple-A. Atlanta's rotation is just as well-
stocked this year, but if anyone goes down Beachy could again be summoned
to the rescue—PECOTA thinks him capable of nearly a strikeout per inning
and a sub-4.00 ERA.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Jonny Venters struck out under six batters
per nine innings as a starter in the upper minors before surprising the
organization by fanning over 10 per nine with a sub-2.00 ERA in the Braves
bullpen last season. PECOTA projects an unsightly 4.77 ERA, but the system
doesn't know that his efforts were aided by an improved breaking ball or
that his stuff played up in the bullpen. Still, some regression is almost
certainly in the offing after the lefty limited batters to a single home
run in 83 innings last season.
Florida Marlins: 84-78 projected 2011 record
Why They Might Win: Even after unloading Uggla on a division rival, the
Marlins are projected to score the most runs in the division, as PECOTA
foresees the usual offensive brilliance from Hanley Ramirez being
supplemented by strong sophomore seasons from Mike Stanton and Logan
Morrison, with few glaring holes outside of veteran third baseman Wes
Helms.
Why They Might Not Win: Good glovemen are still thin on the ground in
Miami, though receiving a full season of Mike Stanton and exchanging Uggla
for Omar Infante at the keystone should help. As usual, the Marlins will
also be attempting to make do with a largely reconstructed bullpen.
Player Who Could Surprise: Ruben Gotay hasn't sniffed the majors since
2008, but he posted a .410 OBP at Triple-A last season. PECOTA thinks that
would translate to a .370 mark in the majors if the third baseman could
crack the roster, and Helms shouldn't represent much of an obstacle.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Michael Dunn's 1.89 ERA in abbreviated
action in Atlanta last season got him included in the Uggla deal, but
since he misses the strike zone even more often than he misses bats, that
figure is sure to rise. PECOTA thinks he'll get his walk rate under six
per nine, which might not be enough to avoid a 5.00-plus ERA.
New York Mets: 80-82 projected 2011 record
Why They Might Win: PECOTA essentially expects the Mets to break even, and
like any team with a true talent level in the range of .500, they could
get lucky enough to contend. The club's new regime spent the winter
collecting low-risk, medium-upside parts, and in the unlikely event that
they all pay off, the Mets' competitive timetable could be accelerated.
Why They Might Not Win: With Johan Santana's return uncertain, the
rotation lacks a sure thing, and the bullpen isn't much better. The Mets
are projected to allow nearly 80 more runs than they did last season, and
with Oliver Perez still slated to frequent Flushing, Citi Field may be the
only thing keeping the Mets' projected runs allowed total in respectable
territory.
Player Who Could Surprise: With the powerless remains of Luis Castillo
still topping the Mets' second-base depth chart, Rule 5 find Brad Emaus
could open some eyes. PECOTA projects a league-average .250/.332/.371 line
with plus defense from him in his age-25 season, which would be quite a
return for the $50,000 it took to steal him from Toronto.
Player Who Could Disappoint: PECOTA doesn't expect much progress from Ike
Davis, but Mets fans hoping for a power display from Lucas Duda may be in
for even more disappointment, as his .242/.327/.395 projection bears
little resemblance to his slugging exploits in the high minors last
season.
Washington Nationals: 70-92 projected 2011 record
Why They Might Win: The Nats won't win in the classical sense, but they
can achieve a victory of sorts by not losing the services of any more
young pitchers to injury while waiting for Stephen Strasburg to make a
triumphant return and lead the team to contention down the road.
Why They Might Not Win: Unfortunately, there's little uncertainty here;
the Nats are projected to allow far more and score far fewer runs than any
other team in the division. Jordan Zimmermann is the only potential bright
spot in an otherwise lackluster rotation, and Jayson Werth and Ryan
Zimmerman alone do not a productive lineup make.
Player Who Could Surprise: Catcher Jesus Flores lost last season to labrum
surgery following an injury-plagued 2009, but was last seen posting an 877
OPS in limited action. Now healthy, the 26-year-old is back in Nats camp
and poised to bounce back. PECOTA foresees a modest .249/.312/.394
performance, but even that would be a significant improvement over 39-
year-old starter Ivan Rodriguez's projected .246/.274/.337 line.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Jayson Werth's restored facial hair won't
disappoint, but his bat might lose some of its luster away from Citizens
Bank Park. PECOTA thinks a .266/.363/.471 triple-slash line is in store;
while that's useful, it doesn't scream "franchise player" quite as
loudly as a seven-year, $126-million contract.