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On Friday I wrote a post asking if we actually over rate Robinson Cano. The
premise of the post is that while Cano is a great baseball player, he is not
a top five or top ten baseball player. He’s actually a top twenty baseball
player, so when we describe him as a top ten guy we’re actually over rating
him a bit. Unsurprisingly, the post turned out to be one of my most heavily
commented since I started blogging about the Yankees.
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Robbie’s lack of plate discipline is what prevents him from being a top five
baseball player. While Robbie wouldn’t be as good as the player above if he
walked as often as Miguel Cabrera because he would inevitably walk sometimes
instead of hitting the cover off the ball, the opposite is true as well.
Walking more would reduce the number of outs Robbie makes, which would beef
up the rest of his rate stats. Robbie’s true potential if he walked more is
somewhere in between his actual numbers and the second table above, but that
player is a top five player. For example, if Robbie got just half the
improvement from walking more his 2011 line would be .323/.377/.570, which is
remarkably close to the .317/.395/.555 line that Miguel Cabrera has put up
for his entire career.
※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言：
: http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/10/is-robinson-cano-overrated-35970
: because he’s one of the best players in baseball … right? Right?
: There are two reasons why Robbie is (just a little) overrated. First, he
: plays in New York. He’s succeeding on the world’s biggest stage. That will
: make any star burn brighter. Second, Robbie looks so good playing baseball
: that we think he’s better than he is. Cano is one of the most graceful,
: exciting baseball players I’ve ever seen in a lifetime of watching this
: game. When he does something good on the field, its often something
: astounding, and he executes with pizazz. Whether its running down a ball in
: the gap and making an impossible throw to first across his body or dropping
: his bat and briefly admiring a ball that he’s just hit into the
: stratosphere, Robbie does a lot of things in baseball that no one else can
: do. The problem is that he does many near-impossible things so well that we
: forget to notice all the essential things that he does badly, like take
: pitches. We overrate Cano because he’s so much fun to watch play baseball
: that we naturally think he’s better than he is.
: All that said, even if we say Robbie is a top five player when he is not, he
: is still a top twenty player who will be a free agent after the 2013 season
: at the latest, which would be just his age 30 season. Should the Yankees make
: him not just one of the top twenty highest paid position players in the game,
: but one of the top twenty highest paid players, period? I vote yes,
: resoundingly, slightly overrated or not (and I emphasize slightly, because
: Robbie is obviously an elite player).
: Since 2009 Robbie has accumulated 16.4 fWAR, while hitting .314/.361/.529,
: for a .378 wOBA. That may not make him a top ten position player, but it does
: rank 13th in the game during that time. Among second basemen only Ben Zobrist
: and Chase Utley have been better during that stretch, and not by much.
: Setting defense aside, Robbie’s .378 wOBA during that stretch is 14th in the
: game and tops among all second basemen. Having turned 29 this October, Robbie
: figures to be one of the game’s elite second basemen for the next five or
: six years. He figures to be worth at least $18 million a season to the
: Yankees. The team should pay him fairly and lock him up for a few more
: seasons if it can. He is, after all, perhaps the game’s best second basemen,
: even if he’s not perhaps its best player.