http://tinyurl.com/7eyk5xp
Jack Zduriencik knew why I had called before I even asked a question.
Depending upon your perspective, it’s either good or bad that Jack Z is
reading my mind.
I say good, because Jack Z is always pleasant about it, and maybe he and I
can one day take our act on the road.
“Trade Felix,” I say.
“No,” Jack Z replies.
Now before Mariners fans get all upset with me again for suggesting to their
GM that he trade right-hander Felix Hernandez, allow me to cite two recent
developments:
‧ The Padres’ boffo return for right-hander Mat Latos, a pitcher who isn’t
nearly as good as Hernandez (who is?).
‧ The Athletics’ strong return for left-hander Gio Gonzalez, another
pitcher who isn’t nearly as good as Hernandez.
‧ The stunning offseason additions of the Rangers and Angels, who no longer
are simply the best teams in the AL West, but perhaps the best in the
American League.
The Mariners, even if they somehow sign free-agent first baseman Prince
Fielder, aren’t going to make the playoffs next season, and probably wouldn’
t qualify in 2013, either.
I understand the fan opposition to trading Hernandez, but the goal is not to
destroy the M’s, it’s to make them better.
The Yankees, as I wrote in March, are a logical trade partner, deep in young
talent and strong enough financially to absorb the $58 million left on the
final three years of Hernandez’s contract. For King Felix, other teams would
jump, too.
Zduriencik, though, says that he doesn’t want to hear it, that his plan is
to keep Hernandez and make him the anchor for the team’s emerging rotation.
I get that — the Mariners’ young starting pitchers, if everything breaks
right, might rank among the best in the game in two or three years.
But here’s the problem:
Hernandez, 25, is under contract only through 2014. And if the Mariners don’
t turn it around during that time, he will not stay in Seattle out of the
goodness of his heart.
He’ll be gone.
As Yankees GM Brian Cashman advised reporters last season when judging A.J.
Burnett, it’s time for the Mariners to “smoke the objective pipe.”
As the Rays have shown in the AL East, the only way to compete with
high-revenue behemoths is to assemble a large number of high-end young
players and have them hit at once.
That was the Padres’ motivation for trading Latos, the Royals’ motivation
for trading Zack Greinke. Granted, Hernandez is at a different level.
Granted, the M’s can support much higher payrolls. But why not commit fully
to rebuilding?
OK, Jack, your turn:
“I still say, as I’ve said all along, we’ve still got the best young
pitcher in the game, and that’s pretty darned good,” Zduriencik said,
referring to Hernandez.
“One thing we have here — what we’re really excited about — is young
pitching. You take Felix and (Michael) Pineda. We think James Paxton is going
to be really good. We’ll give him a chance in spring training. Same with
(Danny) Hultzen. We’ve got a young kid, Taijuan Walker, who might be the
best of them all. Erasmo Ramirez . . .
“We’re a year or less from having some of these really good arms sitting on
our ballclub. It’s kind of what we’re hanging our hats on right now. All of
us are excited about what’s going to happen in the next year or two.”
And Jack, I’d be right there with you, if only the Mariners could hit.
The M’s last season scored 556 runs, ranking last in the majors for the
second straight year. The Padres — playing in cavernous Petco Park, without
the benefit of a DH, in their first season without Adrian Gonzalez — scored
593.
Even if the Mariners could get Fielder — and I’m highly skeptical that he
would choose them over a team with a more realistic chance of contending soon
— how much of a difference would he actually make?
The M’s seem to believe that the effect would be exponential, that they
would get not just Fielder’s 120 RBI, but benefit from his ripple effect
throughout the lineup. Fielder would absorb the middle-of-the-order pressure.
Younger hitters such as Mike Carp, Justin Smoak and Kyle Seager would be free
to be themselves.
Makes sense in theory, but Fielder might walk 200 times in such a lineup.
Opponents would have little incentive to pitch to him, preferring to attack
younger hitters instead.
More to the point, what happens if the M’s don’t get Fielder? Catcher John
Jaso currently stands as their big addition. And it’s too late in the
offseason for them to make other moves of consequence.
No, better to go the other way.
Not all of the Mariners’ young pitchers and hitters are going to develop in
the way that club officials anticipate. The more prospects a team collects,
the greater the chances that it will succeed.
Zduriencik had the right idea last summer, sacrificing wins to acquire a
strong return for right-hander Doug Fister and a lesser one for lefty Erik
Bedard.
Now Jack Z should go to the Yankees and demand essentially the same package I
suggested last March — catcher Jesus Montero, infielder Eduardo Nunez and
right-hander Ivan Nova plus righty Dellin Betances or lefty Manny Banuelos.
Maybe the Yankees wouldn’t budge on Nova, who went 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA last
season. Fine, tell them to include two different youngsters, make it a
5-for-1. For King Felix, the Yankees would part waters, move mountains and —
surprise! — blow past the dreaded luxury-tax threshold yet again.
Jack?
“You get people who will throw it out there: ‘Don’t forget, if you ever
want to do something (with Hernandez), let me know,’” Zduriencik said,
without mentioning the Yankees specifically.
“It’s more of an inquiry than anything else . . . People are courteous.
They understand where we stand. We’ve been pretty strong on our desire to
keep him here.”
I know, Jack, I know.
We’ll talk again soon.