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1. San Diego Padres
Without Anthony Rizzo, they no longer have a top-25 prospect in their system,
but in terms of total future value of players likely to play significant
roles in the big leagues, they're ahead of everyone else. Some of these
players, especially from the 2011 draft, will develop into stars. But there
are so many prospects here with high floors, players who would be top-10 or
top-five in other systems but are 11-20 here (such as Robbie Erlin or Edinson
Rincon), that they are well-positioned to compete even with modest major
league payrolls during the next five to six years. Fans who were upset at the
sudden departures of GM Jed Hoyer and assistant GM Jason McLeod for the Cubs
should find solace in the fact that the prospects they helped bring into the
system (along with many other scouts and execs, including Chris Gwynn, now
with Seattle, and Jaron Madison and Randy Smith, still in San Diego) remain
in place.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
If you favor ceiling over probability, you could make a strong argument for
having the Rays ahead of the Padres, based on the fact that this system could
quite easily produce six to eight players who end up as grade-60 players or
better in the majors. After that first tier, however, there's a lot less
probability here than there was a year or two ago, and several executives
from other clubs pointed out that the Rays have a gap in their prospect
pipeline coming up that will be filled only if some of their 2011 draft picks
move faster than anticipated.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
One of the many reasons criticism of Rogers Communications, the owner of the
Blue Jays, for being stingy with free agents is so ignorant is that the club
has spent aggressively in the amateur markets during the past three years,
grabbing high-ceiling high school players and Latin American prospects by
stockpiling picks and paying whatever it took to sign those players. They are
the organization most likely to be No. 1 on this list next winter.
4. St. Louis Cardinals
They've drafted very well in the past few years, which has to be heartening
to Astros fans, as Houston just hired Jeff Luhnow, who oversaw the Cards'
recent drafts, as GM. St. Louis also has done an excellent job of developing
the players it's drafted. I really like how the Cards are set up to contend
continuously during the next five years.
5. Kansas City Royals
Despite some major losses via promotion (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Danny
Duffy) and injury (John Lamb), the system remains extremely deep and still
has two high-ceiling prospects at the top, Bubba Starling and Wil Myers.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Those two picks in the top 10 in June certainly helped, but the Diamondbacks
also have added a few strong arms through trades and are seeing progress from
their 2008 draft crop.
7. Texas Rangers
The Rangers have ranked highly the past few years