http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120921/OPINION03/209210445
Detroit — You wanna talk about WAR, fine. Let's chat.
Personally, Wins Above Replacement, an advanced stat that attempts to measure
how many more victories a player is worth than if he were replaced on the
team by a minor league or bench-level player, is far from perfect. It's
simply not the end-all.
If it was, Alan Trammell, not Ozzie Smith, would've been the first-ballot
Hall of Famer.
如果WAR有用的話 那第一次就入選名人堂的就會是Alan Trammell而非Ozzie Smith了
Now tell me, is Miguel Cabrera seriously worth fewer than seven victories
compared to if a Mud Hens-caliber player had been playing instead of him for
the Tigers this season?
Cabrera對老虎的貢獻不到七勝???
Because, folks, that's what WAR suggests.
這就是WAR告訴我們的
And to me, that's ludicrous, regardless of how limited Cabrera's range is at
third base.
WAR also tells us Angels center fielder Mike Trout, 21, the sexy pick for AL
Most Valuable Player by most in the national media, is worth at least two
more wins to his team than Cabrera is worth to his Tigers. Never mind that
Trout didn't even join the Angels until an April 28 promotion from the minor
leagues.
Trout場次少不少 WAR卻高了超過兩勝
WAR gives the edge to Trout, of course, because of his league-leading 46
stolen bases and 118 runs, and his Gold Glove-caliber defense. In turn, WAR
doesn't seem to care much that Cabrera is making a historic pursuit for a
Triple Crown, leading the league with a .333 batting average and 130 RBIs,
while running second, by one, with 41 home runs.
因為46次盜壘 118得分和金手套 WAR給了Trout優勢
但WAR卻不在乎史詩般的三冠王
I've had folks tell me lately that even if Cabrera wins baseball's first
Triple Crown since 1967, Trout remains the MVP pick. My apologies. I simply
cannot comprehend that.
1967後首次三冠王還拿不到MVP? 我無法理解
But fans of Sabermetrics, these new-age stats that attempt to give you an
all-around worth of a player, actually will tell you — and with a straight
face! — that batting average and RBIs are irrelevant today.
但賽八的粉絲總是告訴你 打擊率和打點沒用
There might — might — be the case with batting average, because that
doesn't necessarily tell you how clutch or how much of a run producer a
player is. There were some in Seattle who thought Ichiro Suzuki could have
hit many more home runs, but didn't because he wanted his batting average to
stay sky high.
打擊率 或許是吧
But RBIs? Really? Irrelevant? The critics like to say that's only a
measurement of how often guys get on ahead of you. Well, to that I have a
two-word response: Delmon Young.
但打點是靠隊友??? 我只能給你兩個字: Delmon Young
Trout, to be fair, is a leadoff hitter. He's guaranteed to come up at least
once a game with nobody on in front of him. Cabrera bats third — and with
the year Austin Jackson has had — and gets plenty of shots with runners on,
regardless of the black hole that has been the Tigers' No. 2 slot.
So to compare Trout and Cabrera, you must be a little more creative.
Here's what I came up with. Cabrera drives in a run 37.8 percent of the time
with runners on, and 50.6 percent with runners in scoring position. Trout, by
comparison, is at 35.5 percent and 48.1 percent.
壘上有人時 Cabrera有37.8%的機率打回分數 RISP時是50.6%
Trout則分別是35.5%和48.1%
And let's talk about what the player means to his team. For starters, the
Angels are more likely to miss the playoffs than the Tigers. That matters.
But let's look past that. In terms of runs and RBIs, Cabrera has accounted
for 28.2 percent of all Detroit's runs; Trout, meanwhile, is at 23.5 percent.
And even had Trout been up on Opening Day, it would've taken an historic
April to be beating Cabrera there.
Cabrera貢獻了老虎28.2%的分數 而Trout只有23.5%
There are other advanced metrics that Saber fans cite, including wRC+, or
runs created. There, per FanGraphs, Trout actually edges Cabrera by two runs,
171-169. They are baseball's leaders. Of course, Cabrera wins in other areas
Tigers manager Jim Leyland might call "geek" stats, including on-base
percentage (.398-.392) and slugging percentage (.613-.551), and thus OPS
(1.011-.943).
Cabrera在宅宅數據-上壘率/長打率/OPS 也都領先
Then there's what a player's meant to his team when it matters — in crunch
time.
關鍵時刻更是如此
In August and September, with the Tigers clawing to stay in the American
League Central race, Cabrera is batting .360 with 16 homers and 45 RBIs in 44
games. Trout had an OK August (.284, seven homers and 19 RBIs), but he's darn
near disappeared in September (.257, two homers, three RBIs).
Cabrera在八九月大殺四方 反觀Trout
八月還可以 九月就烙賽了
What does that mean? If the Tigers make the playoffs — and it's very
possible, considering the White Sox tough closing schedule — it'll be
because of Cabrera.
如果老虎進季後賽 這都是Cabrera的功勞
And if the Angels miss the playoffs — a very likely scenario — it'll be, in
part, because of Trout.
而如果天使沒進季後賽 - 非常有可能 - 則是因為Trout的過錯
Now, I ask you, is that an MVP? That's for 28 of my peers to decide; I don't
have an MVP vote this year.
這樣算是MVP嗎? 這得交給28位票選者來決定 我今年沒有選票
But if that is an MVP, then let me say this: Voters better be consistent and
make Tigers ace Justin Verlander the Cy Young winner for a second straight
year, because he leads the major leagues in WAR, too, not contenders Felix
Hernandez or David Price.
但如果這也算是MVP 那票選者最好也把賽揚獎選票給Verlander
因為他是WAR領先者
By the way, here's another thing FanGraphs' WAR tells us, folks: Anibal
Sanchez (3.1) and Rick Porcello (2.9) are worth more to their team than
Angels ace Jered Weaver (2.7) is to his. Never mind that Weaver is 18-4 with
a 2.79 ERA. What do those stats matter anymore?
順便一提 FanGraphs上的WAR顯示 Anibal Sanchez (3.1)和Rick Porcello (2.9)
都比Jered Weaver (2.7)更有價值
Weaver可是18-4 2.79 ERA呢
FanGraphs, interestingly, comes up with different WARs than
Baseball-Reference.com. They arrive at the same numbers for home runs, RBIs
and average, however.
Look, I'm not saying WAR and wRC+ and other Saber stats are rubbish. Not at
all, actually. We're in the greatest technology era, with number crunching
made easier. So there absolutely is a place in baseball for evolution of
statistics.
我不是說賽八的數據是給人打臉用的
But at the expense of completely disregarding telling stats that have been
around for 100-plus years?
Let's please not go there.
但為了賽八的數據 就要放棄用了100多年的老朋友嗎?
最好不要