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http://tinyurl.com/9hb62dr
When we look at the actual estimation of the line’s equation, though, we
note one very important issue. The link between payroll and winning
percentage in 2012 is not statistically significant.* In other words –
despite what we see when we stare at the line — we can’t argue that
payroll and winning percentage in 2012 are actually related to each other.
事實上 今年的MLB球隊勝率和薪資間是沒有統計上的顯著關係的
會讓戰績和薪資脫鉤的原因在魔球裡面有解釋過了
答案就是新人上來後要先當長達六年的廉價勞工 之後才能到FA市場上撈肥約
除此之外 棒球預測 特別是投手部分 非常困難
往往造成所謂"簽假貨"的事件
導致最後球隊表現和薪資脫鉤 (但和GM能力非常相關)
反觀NBA
http://tinyurl.com/7hxqukt
With respect to the NBA, the ceiling on salaries is causing the top players
to allocate themselves according to one specific non-salary issue. Again,
consider the LeBron saga. LeBron didn’t leave Cleveland because the
Cavaliers couldn’t afford his services. LeBron left Cleveland because he
wanted to win a title (which he did). Now it appears that Howard is
following the same pattern. And Durant’s ability to contend with the
Thunder is probably part of the reason he appears to be happy in Oklahoma.
In essence, this story is similar to what we already see in college
basketball. Why do the top high school athletes flock to Kentucky every
year? It’s not because Lexington, Kentucky is a large market. Players like
John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Brandon Knight, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and
Anthony Davis went to Kentucky because they had a chance to contend for a
title. A similar story is told about players who attend Duke, North
Carolina, and Kansas. None of these schools are in large markets. But all
provide a program that consistently competes for championships.
薪資上限反倒造成頂尖球員追求高薪資以外的目標 (奪冠)
讓強隊可以用低於水準的薪水簽下頂級球員
而小球隊即使提出頂新 如果明星球員感覺看不到未來 一樣留不住招牌