※ 引述《joey1149 (Joey)》之銘言：
: 如題,
: 如果是支持面與反對面好像有例子
: 1.贊成:
: MLB 04 07年的紅襪 08年的費城人 09年的洋基
: 中華職棒 陳金鋒剛加那年的La New , 統一獅
: NBA 07年的馬刺 08年老賽 09,10年湖人 11年小牛 12年熱火
: 2.反對:
: MLB 08,10年的洋基 12年的 馬林魚,天使 (堆錢效果不如預期)
: MLB 06,11年的紅雀 10,12年的巨人
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-myth-of-going-for-broke/
I looked at each team since 2002 whose overall payroll has jumped up by at
least 20 percent during the offseason (payrolls have been increasing across
baseball at a fairly steady rate of about four percent over this time).
There have been 79 teams with payroll increases that qualified for this
sample, and I looked at each team's change in win total from the previous
season to see whether the payroll increase would coincide with an increase in
wins. On average, the teams in the sample saw a change of -0.96 wins in the
season in which they increased payroll. That's right, not only did these
teams not improve, they actually, on average, lost one more game than in the
previous season.
從2002年以來有79支球隊在隔年增加超過20%的薪資
得到的成果是-0.96勝
Of the 79 teams that increased payroll by 20 percent from 2002-12, 47 had a
payroll below 75 percent of the median in the year before the increase. On
average these teams lost 1.7 more games in the season after the increase.
對47支小市場球隊來說 成果是-1.7勝
I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but the average increase in
wins was -0.26 (essentially negligible) for the 23 teams that had a higher
than median payroll in the year before they increased payroll by 20 percent
or more.
對23支大市場球隊來說 成果是-0.26勝
Of the 79 teams in my sample, 28 won at least 88 games in the season before
they increased payroll. My hypothesis would be that these 28 teams will have
increased their payroll either to get back to the playoffs or get in after
being in thick of playoff contention the year before.
What was the effect of the increase in payroll on these 28 teams?
Of those teams, 14 won 88 or more games again after increasing their payroll;
the other 14 failed to repeat their success> Again, it seemed that the
increase in payroll had no overall effect on a team's ability to repeat its
success.
有28支球隊原本是88勝以上的強隊 補強之後有一半贏超過88場
另一半贏少於88場
Instead, my real point is that an increase in payroll does not guarantee
results.
結論就是看起來灑錢好像不是很有用
(注: 這結果應該不難理解 由於MLB特殊的薪資制度 會進入FA的多半是年過30進入衰退期
的球星 花大錢買衰退球星的效益不高是正常的)