http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/20/4006108/kenny-lofton-prospect-retrosp
ective
一樣不求甚解翻譯 有錯請指正
We've looked recently at some "tools bust" prospects like Delmon Young and
Ruben Rivera. It is time to switch gears and look at an outstanding success
story from the tools players category: Kenny Lofton.
在看過楊大猛以及Ruben Rivera這種有工具卻失敗的案例後 我們來看看成功的案例
Kenny Lofton
Kenny Lofton was drafted by the Houston Astros in the 17th round in 1988, out
of the University of Arizona. He was best-known as a basketball player in
college, where he was the starting point guard for the Wildcats. He is one of
only two men to play in the college basketball Final Four and the MLB World
Series, the other being former pitcher Tim Stoddard.
1988被太空人17倫選上 一般人比較知道他是亞利桑那大學的得分後衛 他是兩個曾經打過
大學籃球準決賽跟MLB世界大賽的兩人之一 另一個 Tim Stoddard
With just a handful of college baseball games under his belt, Lofton was
considered very raw as a baseball player, but promising due to his blazing
speed and superior overall athleticism. His pro debut was not particularly
successful: he hit .214/.286/.273 in 48 games for Auburn in the New York-Penn
League. He stole 26 bases in 30 attempts, but the lack of power combined with
a high strikeout rate (51 in 48 games) was a poor combination and did not
auger well for his future. His defense was rough, though the tools were
there. At this point he'd have rated as a Grade C prospect and a long shot,
although "with higher potential" would be an appropriate modifier.
Lofton相較於籃球之下 對棒球比較生疏 但有飛快的速度以及很好的運動能力第一個球季
不怎樣 New York-PennLeague 48場 打.214/.286/.273 30次嘗試盜壘 26次成功 欠缺炮瓦
跟過高的被三振率 對他的未來是一大問題 守備方面也太粗糙 不過工具擺在那就是
Sickles給他C,還有很長的路要走 雖然有很高的潛能就是
Lofton returned to Auburn in 1989, hitting .263/.336/.309 with 26 steals in
34 games. The Astros saw signs of progress, so he was promoted to Low-A
Asheville in August, where he hit .329/.421/.390 in 22 games. Overall, at the
two levels he hit .292/.372/.344 with 40 steals in 51 attempts, 26 walks and
40 strikeouts in 192 at-bats. He was clearly making progress developing a
feel for baseball and good leadoff skills. Lack of power was an issue, but no
one expected that from him at that point. I would probably have stayed with a
Grade C given the small sample sizes involved, perhaps a Grade C+.
1989在Auburn打34場.263/.336/.309 26盜 太空人看到進步 8月把他升上低階1A
22場打出 .329/.421/.390 整年度.292/.372/.344 192AB 26BB 40K 51次嘗試盜壘
40次成功 他很明顯的逐漸掌握打棒球的感覺跟打一棒的技巧 缺炮瓦是個問題
但沒人會在這個階段期待他長出炮瓦 Sickles在這個階段給C 或者C+
Lofton took a huge step forward in 1990, hitting .331/.407/.395 with 62 steals
for Osceola in the High-A Florida State League. He drew 61 walks in 556 plate
appearances, reduced his strikeout rate, and continued to refine his defensive
skills in the outfield. Baseball America rated him the Number Five prospect
in the FSL.
Lofton在1990年大進步 打.331/.407/.395 62盜 556打席凹到61BB 也降低被三振率
外野的防守也進步並修正 BA評價他是FSL(佛羅里達聯盟)第五名新秀
The main concern here was that he was already 23 and thus a bit old for the
league, but given his lack of amateur experience, it was reasonable to cut
him some slack. A similar prospect nowadays would probably get a strong B- or
maybe a B from me.
這裡主要的問題是 他23歲了 在這聯盟有點老 但因為對棒球比較缺經驗 所以不對他太苛
求 如果現在有這樣狀況的新秀 Sickles會給他不錯的B-球員或者是B
In 1991 he jumped directly to Tucson in the Pacific Coast League, skipping
Double-A. He hit .308/.367/.417 with 30 steals and 52 walks for Tucson,
with 19 doubles and 17 triples. His walk rate dropped, and his stolen base
success ratio was unimpressive (23 caught stealing). Considering that he had
skipped Double-A, it was a very good season, but Tucson and the PCL were a
friendly environment.
1991年他跳過2A 升上3A 打出.308/.367/.417 30盜 52BB 19支2B 17支3B 他的BB率降低了
盜壘成功率也不高 23次盜壘失敗 但考量他跳過2A 這算是很不錯的球季 即使PCL是對打
者友善的球場
He played in 20 games for the Astros and hit just .203/.253/.216 in 74 at-bats.
Nowadays, I would view a similar player as likely becoming a valuable fourth
outfielder due to their speed and defense, but I'd worry about him hitting
enough to play regularly. I'd probably give out another Grade B-.
他在太空人打20場 74AB .203/.253/.216 這樣的球員在現在Sickles會認為他是有價值的
4號外野手 因為他的速度與守備 會擔心他無法勝任先發 評價會是B-
The Astros traded Lofton and a minor league pitcher named Dave Rohde to the
Cleveland Indians for pitcher Willie Blair and catcher Eddie Taubensee.
Loften opened 1992 in the Cleveland lineup, and his rookie year was very
successful: .285/.362/.365 with 66 steals to lead the American League. His
defense was terrific and he finished with a WAR of 6.3, OPS+107, finishing
second in the Rookie of the Year balloting.
太空人把他跟一名小聯盟球員Dave Rohde送到印地安人換來投手Willie Blair跟捕手
Eddie Taubensee Lofton 1992開季就在印地安人陣中 打出非常好的菜鳥年
.285/.362/.365 66盜(美聯第一) 防守超棒 當年WAR 6.3 OPS+ 107 在新人王票選第二
Lofton followed up with a .325/.408/.408, 70-steal, 7.3 WAR campaign in 1993,
and it just got better from there. He made contact, controlled the strike zone
reasonably well, and developed enough power to keep the pitchers honest,
hitting double-digit homers seven times in his career. Even considering the
robust offensive context in which he was playing in the late 90s and early 00s
, that was pretty shocking considering his early lack of pop. His OPS+ was
better than league average for 11 years in a row. He made six All Star teams.
1993打出.325/.408/.408 70盜 7.3WAR 他Contact不錯 好球帶也控制得很好 也培養足夠
的炮瓦去對付投手 在他生涯有七個球季打超過10支HR 即使90年末 00年初是打者成績較好
的年代 但以他生涯早期的小聯盟成績能長成這樣 還是頗令人震驚 他的OPS+連續11年
高於聯盟水平 入選6次明星賽
As good as his hitting was, his outfield was genuinely spectacular, at least
if you believe TZ and UZR: he finished +114.5 runs on defense alone in his
career, boosting his WAR to 66.2 combined with an overall offensive line of
.299/.372/.423, OPS+107, wRC+110.
他的守備更是棒 如果你相信TZ跟UZR的話 生涯守備+114.5分 加上他的進攻
.299/.372/.423, OPS+107, wRC+110 生涯WAR是66.2
Comparable Players to Kenny Lofton, by Bill James Sim Score
Jimmy Ryan (Excellent player from the 19th century)
Tim Raines (I think he belongs in the hall)
Harry Hooper (HoF)
George Van Haltren (Excellent player from the 19th century)
Ken Griffey Sr (he wasn't as good as his kid, but he was very good)
Max Carey (HoF)
Brett Butler
Fred Clarke (HoF)
Ichiro Suzuki
Wally Moses
Bill James把他跟以上幾個球員比較
Lofton's 66.2 career WAR ranks him 14th All-Time among center fielders, in a
range with Duke Snider (71.8), Richie Ashburn (67.7), Max Carey (66.1), and
19th century Billy Hamilton (65.6).
Lofton的 WAR在中外野手裡面排14名
Lofton is close to a best-case example of a pure athlete with little
experience figuring out how to play baseball. In the minors, Lofton always
showed good speed and athleticism, but he didn't know how to play baseball
at first. His on-base abilities took a bit of time to develop, and he never
showed much long-drive power in the minors. But he thrived once he turned his
attention to baseball full-time in 1990. Looking at him in 1988 or 1989,
you'd never think he could become the player he did.
Lofton可說是 有很好的運動能力缺乏棒球經驗卻成功的最佳案例 在小聯盟可以看到
他的速度以及運動能力 但卻掌握不好怎麼打棒球 練提高上壘率讓他花了不少時間
在小聯盟沒展現啥長打 但在1990他開始全心打棒球後開始成長 看過他1988 1989的成績
你不會相信他會變成這樣的好球員
我比較好奇他當時為何沒打籃球 反而選棒球 當時他沒機會進NBA嗎?