Just two days ago, Bradley Woodrum reviewed the remaining catchers on the free
agent market along with the teams looking to sign a catcher. He concluded that
there were four starting catchers available for seven jobs. Now it's three
catchers for six jobs after the New York Yankees signed Brian McCann to a
five-year contract yesterday. And Kudos to Woodrum for predicting this signing
in his article.
才兩天以前，Bradley Woodrum看了看自由市場上現有的捕手與欲簽捕手的球隊，他總結有
四個先發捕手對應到七隻球隊，而在洋基以五年約簽下McCann後就變成三對六了。
This is what we know of the deal thus far. It is a five-year contract worth $85
million that contains a no trade clause and some kind of vesting option for a
sixth season. Details on the option year are still unclear. If reached, the
option will bring the total value of the deal north of $100 million.
目前我們知道是85m/5Y，內含不交易條款，第六年的自動執行權(但細節尚不明)，如果一切
確定，總值應達100m
In many ways, this move is a match made in heaven. McCann is one of the best
defensive catchers in the league, he combines a good feel for the basics of the
position with excellent pitch framing skills. Per Woodrum's article, McCann's
saved 65 runs over the last three seasons via pitch framing. In addition to his
defensive reputation, McCann carries a loud bat that is typically 20 percent
above league average. That's not catcher average, it's league average.
不論從何角度看，這兩者的結合宛如天作之合，McCann是聯盟中守備數一數二好的捕手，擁
有絕佳捕手基本功跟移手套功力，根據Woodrum的文章，過去三季McCann靠移手套幫球隊省
了65分，且除了守備的威望，他的打擊也高於聯盟平均20%，注意非捕手平均喔，是聯盟打
者平均。
Steamer projects McCann to compile 3.6 WAR over 402 plate appearances. With the
designated hitter role now available to him, McCann may see as many as 600 plate
appearances (barring injury). If we're being thoroughly pessimistic, we can call
that 600 plate appearance projection about 3.5 WAR. Add another 1.5 WAR for
catching contributions not currently included, like framing, and McCann projects
as a roughly five WAR player in 2014.
McCann 402個打席有3.6WAR，現在到美聯又能當指定打擊，或許就能打到600打席了(不計受
傷的話)，如果我們想的保守一點，600打席約帶來3.5WAR，另外1.5WAR則來自他的防守表現
，像是移手套，那2014他大概會有5WAR。
If we assume that the cost of a win will be around $6 million, then the Yankees
are paying for 14 wins over the guaranteed portion of the contract. While
catchers do tend to age more rapidly than other position players, McCann is
entering his age 30 season, so he's relatively young. At this point in his
career and given that we project him to about five wins in 2014, he may be able
to earn the entirety of the contract over the first three seasons.
如果我們假定一場勝利要花6m，那麼洋基的這份合約就是想穩穩拿下14勝。捕手又比其他位
置老化得更快，但McCain才剛要進入30歲，所以他還算年輕。依他現階段的表現推估他能貢
獻5勝，所以他只要前三季正常表現就對得起這份合約了。
There is also the consideration of home stadium. McCann is a pull hitter and
drives most of his home runs out to right field. Per Fangraphs' own park factors
, McCann is moving from a stadium that is league average for left-handed home
runs (100 park factor) to one that inflates home runs by 14 percent (114 park
factor). Below is an overlay of the two stadiums.
球隊主場也是一項因素，McCann是強力拉回的左打者，全壘打多坐落於右外野，根據
Fangraph的球場因素文章，McCann將從Turner field，這個對左打者聯盟平均值(100)的球
場，轉到Yankees stadium左打聯盟平均值(114)，那下圖是兩個球場透明的覆蓋圖(若要看
圖示請點網址)
然後再來是他2013的落點分布圖，你可以看到有多少顆能越過全壘打牆的外野警戒區飛球。
(也是請看網址)
This information is not accounted for in the earlier projection that we
discussed. Since McCann's offense game is particularly well tailored to his new
home park, it should mean that the Yankees will get an even greater return on
their investment.
這些資訊並不是要說明先前文章的討論，而是從他過去的攻擊是恰恰相容於Yankees
stadium，這也表示Yankees這項投資將獲得更多的收益。
From the Yankees perspective, this deal may indicate a lesson learned. Last
offseason, the Yankees were attempting to cut costs and refused to offer Russell
Martin a reasonable, two-year contract. He eventually signed with the Pirates
and helped them reach the postseason for the first time since the height of the
Roman Empire 1992
洋基也在上個賽季學到教訓，他們回絕Russell Martin很合理的兩年約，結果他反倒幫助海
盜打入自1992年以來的季後賽。
Meanwhile, the Yankees received almost no offense from the four catchers they
employed and missed the postseason. It's worth noting that they missed the
postseason by more than just one good catcher, but that was one of the black
holes on the roster. Third base, shortstop, first base, right field, and
designated hitter were also varying degrees of terrible. Really, it's amazing
that they won 88 games, but I digress…
且上賽季洋基動用的四名捕手根本沒有打擊貢獻，也讓洋基沒進季後賽，當然不只有捕手這
個洞，三壘、游擊…..都有不同的嚴重程度，當然以此陣容拿下88勝很讓人驚艷，但在講下
去就離題了。
With McCann off the market, other clubs looking for starting catchers will have
to choose between Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, Dioner Navarro, and a
variety of backup quality options. Reds catcher Ryan Hanigan also remains
available on the trade market. The Red Sox are the most tangibly in need of a
catcher at this point.
隨著McCann有了歸宿，其他找捕手的球團只有在Salty、A.J. Pierzynski、Navarro與眾多
候補中作選擇，紅人的 Ryan Hanigan目前還待價而沽。也可以想見紅襪目前對捕手這個位
置也是最著急。
There is some speculation that the signing could affect negotiations with top
free agent Robinson Cano, but that strikes me as unlikely. With the paucity of
reliable catchers on the market, the Yankees needed to strike quickly to plug
that void. I have little doubt that they would have acquired McCann with or
without Cano.
有些推估說這個合約會影響到Cano，但我的直覺告訴我不太可能，因為市場上好捕手太少，
所以洋基才會急著動作。我倒是對有了McCann的洋基有或沒有Cano的可能感到懷疑。
It feels as though this match was inevitable. The Yankees had every reason to
value McCann more highly than any other team. They have a hungry fan base that
supplies massive revenue, a dearth of quality internal options at the position,
and a home stadium that maximizes McCann's offensive potential. Of teams
interested in catchers, only the Rockies can match the Yankees on that latter
point, but they can't come close on the revenue side. All told, this deal smells
like a winner for both team and player.
感覺這個組合是必然會發生的，洋基過去每季都對McCann有高度評價，他們也擁有廣大球迷
去支持收益，內部也沒有合格人選頂上這位置，主場也適合McCann攻擊習性，唯有落磯尚可
與洋基一搏，但收益上就差得遠了，總和來說，球員與球隊都是贏家。
新聞來源:
http://ppt.cc/jn55

我也相信公道伯能在全壘打滿天飛的美東幫洋基守下更多分

但是他痛痛 能健康出賽多少場呢? 讓我們繼續看下去

光預估600PA+5WAR這篇就不用看了

封鎖本壘板！

600PA...現在是血汗制嗎...

稍微看了兩張圖，以今年的落點，如果換在洋基球場大概有 5球會變HR，有 2球在牆邊

是哪個版的WAR.他今年值3.5的

5 WAR是額外加上手套尾勁的

McCann生涯沒超過600PA過

何況近兩年他真的不是很健康 明年又30了

McCann能力我覺得不用懷疑 接下來兩三年內應該都不錯問題是洋基現在在想什麼實在看不太出來

只要不受大傷的話啦...職業球員常常旦夕禍福

想且戰且走的話 Cano一定是第一要件

但是救球隊角度來說先搞定這筆顯得很莫名

ROooooooooSE!

就現有狀態和線索來說各種臆測還滿好生的

但結論就是現在推測再多都沒用 我們都沒內幕只能等了

WAR 應該是加了本壘板特殊技能

不過比起A-Rod.黑田或在自由市場的盤算等

Cano的factor還是比較有把握的 他留隊的可能性很高

有算到防守全壘打的價值麼

原來是美國高志綱

老爹小心了 跑太慢別想踩到本壘板

公道伯打得贏老爹嗎XD

有包含本壘板講座的鐘點費嗎

也許早就把目標放後年了 明年躲過高稅率後年又海闊天空

FA的捕手McCann這種等級和年紀可遇不可求 未來幾年農場無人可升 到時真的想拼 FA反而找不到好捕手時 才窘吧

話說gary Sanchez去那了?

美東的本壘板該小心點了

Sanchez還在MiLB

公道伯沒有戰斧靈氣還敢主持公道嗎

Sanchez離ready還遠呢..

G.Sanchez連一個AA的完整球季都還沒有

沒靈氣沒關係 有紐約客就夠了，準備進場看好戲

Gary Sanchez哪有卡關

20歲在2A算早了

守備數一數二好 - -???

洋基過去每季都對McCann有高度評價 把reason 看成season了

唔 看了他四五年忽略了他的年紀了

到底是哪版的WAR給到3.6 FG也才給2.7而已 BR 2.2

預測吧

移手套!! 不愧是美國高志綱

Steamer "projects"

重點是Steamer吧?!

重點是!!!!守備的威望!!!!

捕手的養成曲線一向很特別 而且攻擊型捕手折損率很高

29歲前能蹲1000場的捕手不多，而這群很耐操的捕手

在29歲後能再蹲500場的剩不到三分之一

反正在慘，也沒這季慘 這就是洋基要的!

從跑壘速度的衰退來看，McCANN捕手生涯應該快結束了

翻譯很通暢，辛苦&感謝! ps.倒數第二段最後應翻成

不管有沒有簽下Cano，Yankees都無疑會爭取MaCann加盟

守備的威望!!!!!!!!!!!!!

對這隻守備印象是不大好阿

為了做出三年就值這約的假設去湊的吧

公道伯強強強洋基賺賺賺

受傷爽爽賺

公道

期待紅襪簽下AJP，這樣基襪大咒就會從「本壘攻防戰」開始

600PA不是說他在美聯可以兼差打DH來估算的嗎

600PA就算兼差DH也要健康才行 何況DH一堆人排隊

全聯盟也就37個滿600PA的.要期望剛傷癒的C 能做這個..

基基就是要砲管 其他次要

本壘守護者

Joe Mauer也是攻擊型捕手

所以雙城讓他轉1B 就是因為要延長他的運動生命何況Mauer的防守要比McCann好一截

貓兒是要跟Posey比的 跟公道伯比是小看他

貓兒自從腦震盪後，能不能蹲....還是個問題...

這是不是有點太樂觀了？