By Joe Trezza MLB.com @JoeTrezz
Dec. 26th, 2017
The 2018 National Baseball Hall of Fame class will be announced on Jan. 24,
and with it, a new group of legends will be revealed.
2018年的名人堂將會於1月24日公布,
That makes now as good a time as any to ask a speculative question: Which
current big leaguers might join them one day in Cooperstown? We're not
talking about the easy ones:Ichiro Suzuki Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, the few
into shoo-ins. We're talking about the borderline candidates, the stars who
may well be on their way, but aren't there yet.
這讓現在是個非常好的時機提出一個假設性問題:哪位現役大聯盟選手未來有可能加入古
柏鎮行列?我們不是在討論能輕輕鬆鬆進名人堂的,例如:鈴木一朗,Albert Pujols,
Miguel Cabrera,或是其他進名人堂十拿九穩的超級球星.這邊要討論的是在候選人邊緣的
球星,他們可能已經在前往名人堂的路上,但是還沒到達那個高度
We ran a similar exercise last winter, but this year's version comes with a
twist. Which borderline Hall of Famers actually improved their chances during
the 2017 season? Whose Cooperstown resume looks better than it did a year
ago? These 10 names should ring a bell. (Note: The historical comps below are
informed by similarity scores devised by Bill James and, in this case, are
the retired player who plays the same position and is the most statistically
similar through their current age.)
去年也做過相似的議題,但是今年版本有點改變.哪個在名人堂邊緣的球員在2017年提升了
進入名人堂的機會?哪位球星的履歷看起來比去年還要好?這10個名字喚起了你的印象(備
註:下方的歷史球星比較是根據Bill James所設計出的相似分數.在這個情況下,是指那些
跟現役球員同位置且在數據上最相似的退休球員)
1.Zack Greinke, RHP, age 34
Career: 172-107, 3.40 ERA, 56.9 bWAR
2017: 17-7, 3.20 ERA, 6 bWAR
Historical comp: Mike Mussina
When we explored the topic of active, borderline Hall of Fame candidates last
winter, I wrote of Greinke: "He'll need to finish his career with more
seasons akin to his 2011-15 stretch than his lackluster first season in
Arizona if he wants to bolster his dark horse candidacy for Cooperstown."
That's exactly what he did in 2017. In his second year with the D-backs,
Greinke shaved more than a run off his 2016 ERA, eclipsed the 200-inning
mark, made another All-Star team, won another Gold Glove and placed fourth in
the NL Cy Young Award voting. In the process, he entrenched his place in any
conversation about the defining pitchers of his era.
去年冬天當提到現役在名人堂人選邊緣球星的主題時,我寫下Greinke:"他需要持續投出類
似他2011-15,而不是他在亞利桑那那種乏善可陳的第一個球季,如果他想要加強他以黑馬
之姿候選人進軍古柏鎮的機會
而這就是他在2017年所做到的.他在響尾蛇的第二個球季,他不只擺脫了2016低迷的防禦率
,200局的投球,再次入選明星隊,贏得一個金手套,甚至在賽揚票選中名列第四名.他用了他
的防禦率表現,鞏固了他的位置
2.Max Scherzer, RHP, age 33
Career: 141-75, 3.30 ERA, 45.6 bWAR
2017: 16-6, 2.51 ERA, 7.6 bWAR
Historical comp: Johan Santana
Scherzer's third Cy Young Award puts him in rare company. Ten pitchers in
history have won as many, and of them, only Roger Clemens and Clayton Kershaw
aren't enshrined in Cooperstown (yet).
With the demise of the 300-game winner, the criteria for Cooperstown-worthy
starting pitchers has shifted in recent years, and will only continue to do
so. By the time Scherzer's name appears on the ballot, he'll likely be judged
on the strengths of his dominant peak