補一下完整的theathletic.com上Keith Law對狀元的完整評價
還有一些補充
狀元
KL:
1. Baltimore Orioles: Jacob Berry, 3B/OF, LSU
The current betting has the Orioles taking a college position player and
cutting a deal with him, as they did when picking second (2020) and fifth
(2021) in the last two drafts, in part because they don’t believe that Druw
Jones is head-and-shoulders above the remainder of the draft class. I will
point out, however, that GM Mike Elias had the first overall pick in 2019 and
took the best available player, Adley Rutschman; he had it three times while
with Houston, and took the best available player twice (neither of which
worked out). The other time was the most analogous to this year: the Astros
thought four players were all roughly equal in value, or close enough to
treat them as such and try to strike the best deal among them. They ended up
with Carlos Correa, who was, in fact, the best player in the draft. That
said, I think Berry is a future DH and wouldn’t take him anywhere near this
high. The Orioles could also go with Brooks Lee, the Cal Poly shortstop who’
ll at least stay on the dirt and can really hit.
金鳥會如同他們之前的操作一樣，選擇一位大學選手
一方面是因為他們不認為呼聲最高的Druw Jones有這麼優秀
(沒講出的那一方面就是他會非常貴)
而GM在類似的選秀經驗很有一套，但KL也拿Adley Rutschman當例子說明
金鳥的策略並不是一昧的省錢 而是選擇最佳的選擇
另一個跟今年很像的例子是2012年，當時在太空人拿到狀元籤
並用他選走Correa 當時震驚一堆媒體，因為甚至沒有一家媒體把Correa
放到前三名(最佳是KL排他第5) 但事實證明Correa就是最好的那個
註:雖然當時的其他熱門除了Mark Appel(當年第八 但隔年第1)
其他幾位也都很優秀 包含Byron Buxton Mike Zunino Kevin Gausman
金鳥還有一個其他選擇是Brooks Lee 他是加州理工的游擊手
(他也是MLB預測的狀元)
Scouting report: “On bat alone, Berry would be a top-10 pick, as the
transfer from the University of Arizona has mashed for two years, and
drastically cut his strikeout rate even with the move to LSU and a less
favorable home park … He has plus power and good pitch recognition, showing
no trouble the few times he’s seen good velocity this year. He has no
position, though – he’s been well below average at third and in left field.
”
球探報告 : 僅考慮打擊面，Berry是前10好的打者 ，考慮到他轉學到投手球場後
依然可以大幅降低三振率，表示他除了有強大的力量外也有很好的球場適應能力
可惜不管是三壘還是外野防守都低於水準，這會導致他沒有位置可去
而今年狀元熱門在去年一整年都是Druw Jones - Andruw Jones的兒子
他與Elijah Green, Termarr Johnson, Jackson Holliday
大致上被認為是今年的TOP1 CLASS
直到金鳥確定拿到狀元籤 XD
所以對Berry跟Lee 如果不是狀元 可能就是第6順位之後了