Nikola Topic is a projected top 10 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. He is a 6’6, 200
pound guard out of Serbia currently averaging near MVP level stats in the ABA.
I’m going to briefly discuss his stats and then introduce some reasons why I th
ink he has a chance to be great in the NBA. He’s averaging 20/7.5/3.6 per 36 on
>60% TS with an extremely high 66% 2p and 84% FT. His rim attempts and finishin
g in the halfcourt are outliers. He will have the highest projected 2p% out of a
ny primary playmaker we have on record. Players this productive and efficient at
this age in a legitimate professional league rarely bust.
An elite offensive engine in the NBA has 3 major qualities: high usage, elite ef
ficiency, and elite playmaking. Topic demonstrates all 3 of these qualities as w
ell as any guard prospect in recent memory. The most recent breakout star in the
NBA is Tyrese Haliburton. He had a similar statistical profile as a sophomore i
n college, 65% TS, 6.5 assists per 36, 20% usage (Topic is currently 25% or so).
Tyrese was a great 3 point shooter whereas Topic is far more dominant inside th
e arc. The intersection of these qualities are actually quite rare in guard pros
pects. This archetype of player has the highest potential offensively. EPM has T
yrese Haliburton as a +8 per 100 offensive player this season.
One of the prospects Topic gets compared to is Luka Doncic. The comparison is ma
de because they are both European prodigies with exceptional production in pro l
eagues at a very young age. There have been very few european guards with better
production at age 18 than Topic. Luka is perhaps the only one, and only because
he had the chance to demonstrate it in a more difficult Euroleague where he ear
ned MVP honors.
Luka’s playmaking in the NBA has been incredible. His vision leaves you thinkin
g he is a basketball genius. I think Nikola Topic's genius is comparable. His as
sist numbers, while elite, don’t really do his playmaking justice.
Here are the main reasons I like Topic as a prospect:
1) He is elite in transition. When evaluating offensive engines, you need to eva
luate their impact on the half court game and their impact on the transition gam
e. Luka is an example of someone who has a massive positive impact on the half c
ourt game but a negative impact in transition. Topic projects to be elite at bot
h. People will claim that Topic's athleticism is weak for the NBA, but I think h
is speed as a 6'6 ball handler is elite. He's so much faster with the ball than
a Cade Cunningham.
2) He is unselfish. What do I mean by selfish?
There is a tension, peculiar to basketball, between the interests of the team an
d the interests of the individual. The game continually tempts the people who pl
ay it to do things that are not in the interest of the group. On the baseball fi
eld, it would be hard for a player to sacrifice his team’s interest for his own
. Baseball is an individual sport masquerading as a team one: by doing what’s b
est for himself, the player nearly always also does what is best for his team.
“There is no way to selfishly get across home plate,” as Morey puts it. “If i
nstead of there being a lineup, I could muscle my way to the plate and hit every
single time and damage the efficiency of the team — that would be the analogy.
Manny Ramirez can’t take at-bats away from David Ortiz. We had a point guard i
n Boston who refused to pass the ball to a certain guy.” In football the coach
has so much control over who gets the ball that selfishness winds up being self-
defeating. The players most famous for being selfish — the Dallas Cowboys’ wid
e receiver Terrell Owens, for instance — are usually not so much selfish as att
ention seeking. Their sins tend to occur off the field. It is in basketball wher
e the problems are most likely to be in the game — where the player, in his pla
y, faces choices between maximizing his own perceived self-interest and winning.
The choices are sufficiently complex that there is a fair chance he doesn’t fu
lly grasp that he is making them. <!
Nikola Jokic is peak unselfish. He does not care who gets the counting stats, he
only cares about the team outcome. From watching Nikola Topic play, I think he
has been influenced by Jokic. He doesn't force bad shots to benefit his own coun
ting stats. He is always searching for the best team outcome without regard to h
is own statistics. This is my opinion having watched many full games of him.
3) He is fearless attacking the rim and embraces contact. There are so many play
ers with the tools to get to the rim but lack the ambition and heart to attack f
earlessly. He is not afraid to make mistakes or hit the deck. With his size, rim
touch, and free throw shooting, it's likely he will generate a lot of offensive
value here in the NBA.
4) He has, in my opinion, the optimal offensive playstyle. Rarely takes middies
unless late in the clock. Is searching for rim attempts, rim assists, and open 3
s. Perfect for the modern NBA. He pushes the ball in transition. As someone with
a background in statistics, probability, risk, and game theory, I am very much
interested in what is optimal. I can't help but to be impressed with his decisio
n making. One of the underrated characteristics of a prospect is playstyle. It's
actually very hard to coach playstyle. It's so much better to take a player who
's playstyle is already aligned with optimal offensive strategy. Good luck chang
ing Jalen Hood Schifino's midrange heavy playstyle to be more of a rim attacker.
It's not in his basketball personality.
5) He never bitches to the refs. I don’t know if this really matters, but it’s
something I notice. When he gets mauled and doesn’t get a whistle, he just pic
ks himself up and continues playing. This is evidence of a very strong mental ga
me. He also rarely celebrates. Jobs not finished. Topic’s father was a sharpsho
oting PF for the national team and (according to many youtube comments) is rever
ed among Serbian fans for his class and poise as a player.
6) He owns the point guard position. For an 18 year old to have the confidence a
nd poise he does in a professional league projects well. He’s always playing at
his own pace. Mega MIS plays a beautiful brand of team basketball that he has s
eamlessly fit in and help orchestrate.
7) He’s got great chemistry with his bigs in the pick and roll. He’s turning t
hese bigs into Serbian Amare Stoudemires. If he gets picked by a team with an el
ite big, they will be an elite duo. I'm actually going to be shocked if the Spur
s pass on him, regardless of which pick they have.
8) You can’t teach creativity. He has it.
Just wanted to get my thoughts down as I've done a deep dive watching a ton of h
is games online. Let me know what you think!
您好！根據您提供的資訊，我整理了Nikola Topic這位預計在2024年NBA選秀中前十順位被
選中的球員的重點：
1. **統計數據**：Topic作為一名來自塞爾維亞的後衛，身高6英尺6寸，體重200磅，在ABA
聯賽中的表現接近MVP水平。他每36分鐘的平均數據為20分/7.5籃板/3.6助攻，真實投籃命
中率超過60%，2分球命中率高達66%，罰球命中率為84%。
2. **場上表現**：他在半場進攻中的上籃嘗試和完成率是異常突出的，預計他將擁有記錄
中任何主要控球手最高的2分球命中率。在正規職業聯賽中，像他這樣年輕且高效的球員很
少會失敗。
3. **NBA潛力**：一名優秀的NBA進攻引擎擁有三大特質：高使用率、頂級效率和出色的組
織能力。Topic在這三個方面的表現與近年來的任何後衛新秀不相上下。最近的NBA明星球員
Tyrese Haliburton在大學二年級時有著類似的統計數據，真實投籃命中率為65%，每36分鐘
助攻6.5次，使用率為20%（Topic目前約為25%）。
4. **與Luka Doncic的比較**：Topic與Luka Doncic的比較是因為他們都是在年輕時就在職
業聯賽中展現出卓越的歐洲新星。在18歲時，很少有歐洲後衛能有比Topic更好的表現。Don
cic之所以能與之相提並論，是因為他在更具挑戰性的歐洲聯賽中獲得了MVP榮譽。
5. **球場智慧**：Topic的助攻數字雖然出色，但並不能完全反映他的組織能力。他的球場
視野和智慧可與Doncic相媲美。
以下是您認為Topic作為新秀有潛力的主要原因：
- **過渡進攻**：他在過渡進攻中表現出色。在評估進攻引擎時，需要考慮他們對半場進攻
和過渡進攻的影響。Topic在這兩方面都預計將表現出色。
- **無私**：Topic展現了無私的球風，他不會為了個人數據而強行出手，而是總是尋找對
球隊最有利的進攻選擇。
- **勇於突破**：他在攻擊籃筐時無所畏懼，擁抱身體接觸。他的身材、籃下觸感和罰球命
中率，很可能在NBA中創造大量的進攻價值。
- **進攻風格**：他的進攻風格在您看來是最佳的，很少在時間緊迫時才會選擇中距離投籃
。他尋找的是籃下進攻、助攻和開放的三分球，這非常適合現代NBA。
- **心理素質**：即使在受到犯規但未吹哨的情況下，他也會迅速站起來繼續比賽，這顯示
了他堅強的心理素質。
- **控球能力**：作為一名18歲的球員，在職業聯賽中擁有如此的自信和沉著，預示著他將
在NBA有良好的發展。
- **與大個子球員的化學反應**：他在挡拆战术中與大個子球員的配合默契，如果他被一支
擁有頂級大個子的球隊選中，他們將成為一對出色的組合。
- **創造力**：您認為他具有無法通過教授獲得的創造力。
您對Topic的深入分析非常精彩，您對他的遊戲風格和場上表現的詳細描述，顯示了您對籃
球的深刻理解和對統計學的背景知識。如果您有更多關於Topic或其他籃球相關話題的討論
，我很樂意繼續與您交流！