TSMC Overtakes Samsung in FinFET
FinFET製程競賽　台積電超車三星
Despite rivalry, both lag behind Intel
TAIPEI, Taiwan — TSMC, which has more than half the global foundry business, has overtaken Samsung in the FinFET race to commercial production that the South Korean company was leading this year, according to industry analysts. Both companies lag Intel, which is making FinFET chips internally.
產業分析師表示，在全球晶圓代工市場佔有率超過五成的台積電(TSMC)，今年在FinFETs程商業化量產的競賽上已經勝過韓國三星(Samsung)；不過這兩家公司還是落後生產FinFET晶片供應自家使用的英特爾(Intel)。
"Recent developments suggest TSMC has taken the lead over Samsung at developing [16/14nm] FinFET manufacturing technology," Mehdi Hosseini, a San Francisco analyst who covers TSMC and Samsung for Susquehanna Financial analyst, said in an Oct. 1 report.
美國舊金山Susquehanna Financial分析師Mehdi Hosseini在一份最近發佈的報告中指出：「近期發展顯示台積電已經在開發16/14奈米FinFET製程的腳步上超越了三星。」Hosseini表示，來自產業界人士的消息指出，三星的14奈米FinFET製程研發出現延宕，而台積電的16奈米FinFET製程試產則獲得目標客戶越來越多的信心。
Checks with industry experts suggest Samsung's foundry has experienced a setback with its 14nm FinFET project, while TSMC's 16nm pilot line is gaining incremental confidence among prospective customers, Hosseini said in the report. TSMC and Samsung are in a tight race to provide FinFET products to their biggest customers, Apple and Qualcomm, each of which aims to offer improved performance and lower power consumption in smartphones with the higher-density chips. However, the development of 3D-structured
FinFETs has been fraught with difficulty for the two companies.
台積電與三星爭相為供應大客戶如蘋果(Apple)、高通(Qualcomm)所需，而積極開發FinFET製程技術；兩家公司的目標都是改善智慧型手機用高密度晶片的性能、同時降低功耗。不過開發3D結構的FinFET電晶體技術，也讓兩家公司都遇到了不少困難。
On Sept. 25, HiSilicon, China's largest fabless company, announced FinFET samples for an ARM-based networking processor manufactured on TSMC's 16nm pilot line. Hosseini said the node will enter mass production in the second half of 2015 at the earliest.
9月25日，中國無晶圓廠IC設計龍頭海思(HiSilicon)宣佈，已開始推出由台積電16奈米FinFET試產線製造的ARM核心網路處理器樣品；而Hosseini則表示，台積電最早將在2015年第二季開始量產該製程節點技術。
Carlos Peng, an analyst with Fubon Securities in Taipei, says FinFET chips will account for a "high single-digit percentage" of TSMC's revenue by the third quarter of 2015. Initially, TSMC's main customers for the new process technology will be Apple and HiSilicon, followed by Qualcomm, MediaTek, Xilinx, and Altera later in 2015. Apple may choose TSMC to make the A9 processor with FinFET technology.
台北富邦投顧(Fubon Securities)分析師彭國維(Carlos Peng)表示，FiFET製程晶片將在2015年第三季在台積電營收中佔據「高個位數字」比例；第一批採用該新製程技術的台積電主要客戶，將包括蘋果、海思，以及高通、聯發科(Media)、Xilinx與Altera。他並預期蘋果將會委託台積電以FinFET技術生產A9處理器。
"Though Samsung indicates it will begin volume production of 20nm and FinFET at the end of 2014, the yield rate remains low as of the end of 3Q14 as the company is struggling to overcome a steep learning curve," Peng said in a Sept. 25 report. "Meaningful FinFET equipment pull-in for TSMC is likely in early fourth quarter 2014, which also implies potential volume production in the second quarter of 2015, one quarter ahead of schedule, meaning there may be potential for an upside surprise in the first
half of 2015." TSMC's lead in the development of fan-out packaging may give the company an advantage in commercial production.
「雖然三星表示將在2014年底開始量產20奈米FinFET製程，但其良率看來到第三季末仍然偏低，因為該公司仍在克服陡峭的學習曲線；」彭國維在9月25日發表的一篇報告中指出：「台積電可能會在2014年第四季初展開具意義的FinFET設備導入，這意味著可能在2015年第二季就開始量產，比預定時間提早一季。」
"We expect the combination of FinFET and fan-out to drive performance improvement among high-end logic products and ensure TSMC's market position for at least the next two to three years, especially as Samsung will require another one and a half to two years to develop its own fan-out technology, and another year to tape out the new integration products," Peng said.
彭國維並指出，台積電所領導開發的扇出式(fan-out)封裝技術，也會為該公司的新製程量產帶來優勢：「我們預期結合FinFET與扇出式封裝，將可改善高階邏輯晶片產品的性能，進一步鞏固台積電在接下來兩至三年的市場地位；至於三星可能還需要花一至兩年開發自有扇出式技術，還得再花一年投片試產採用新一代整合製程的產品。」
Double patterning and leakage have been tough for Samsung to overcome, since the company's 28nm technology still lags TSMC by one year, he said. The technology gap impacts the schedule for Samsung's 20nm/14nm FinFETs. TSMC may need to revise a prediction chairman Morris Chang made in July: "In 16-nanometer, TSMC will have a smaller market share than a major competitor in 2015." At that time, Chang said FinFET technology will have wide application in baseband, application processors, consumer SoCs, GPUs,
network processors, FPGAs, and CPUs.
Elizabeth Sun, a TSMC spokesperson, would not comment further, citing a quiet period leading up to the company's third-quarter earnings announcement Oct. 16.
據彭國維表示，因為雙重曝光(Double patterning)以及電流洩漏問題，讓三星的28奈米製程技術仍落後台積電一年，此技術差距影響了三星的20/14奈米FinFET時程；因此台積電可能有機會扭轉總裁張忠謀在7月時的說法：「台積電2015年在16奈米節點的市佔率會小於主要競爭對手。」對此台積電發言人表示，該公司因財報發布前的緘默期不便評論。
According to analysts surveyed by EE Times, TSMC may have won a skirmish against Samsung and manufacturing partner Global Foundries, which Apple and Qualcomm have supported in order to pare TSMC's strong pricing power. "Essentially, the concept of a leading edge 'second source' for TSMC has been non-existent for nearly three years," HSBC analyst Stephen Pelayo said in a June report. "Qualcomm (TSMC's largest customer, representing 22% of revenue in 2013), has aimed to work more closely with almost every
other foundry."
產業分析師的看法是，台積電可能已經小勝三星以及另一家晶圓代工廠GlobalFoundries；為了削弱台積電強大的定價能力，蘋果與高通都有支持第二家代工夥伴。「基本上，做為台積電先進製程“第二供應來源”的概念已經消失近三年；」HSBC分析師Stephen Pelayo在一份6月發表的報告中表示：「高通的目標就是與其他每一家代工業者更密切合作。」
Still, Apple is ramping up aggressively with TSMC this year, Pelayo said. Apple's apps processor business alone could account for approximately 10% of TSMC's revenue this year, or nearly $2.4 billion, compared with nothing last year. Nevertheless, TSMC's customers may be skittish about betting on a still unproven process technology.
而Pelayo指出，蘋果會在今年繼續積極委託台積電生產應用處理器晶片，光是該業務可能就貢獻台積電今年度營收近10%，規模達24億美元。不過台積電的其他客戶對於還未經實證的新製程技術，可能還會抱持觀望態度。
BNP Paribas analyst Szeho Ng said in a Sept. 19 report: "It may be hard for Apple to aggressively switch to FinFET in 2015 if it keeps to its cadence of a product refresh in the third quarter every year, and there is uncertainty about Apple's genuine interest in FinFET mass production in 2015."
BNP Paribas分析師Szeho Ng則在9月19日發表的報告指出：「若蘋果繼續保持每年第三季推出新一代產品的步伐，對該公司來說要在2015年大舉轉向FinFET製程可能有困難，而且也不確定蘋果是否真的有興趣在2015年量產FinFET晶片。」
Peng said in a July report: "We believe Apple abandoned the latest FinFET technology and maintained the 20nm design for its A9 processor due to concerns about low yield rates." TSMC is the only foundry that can integrate fan-out for application processors and mobile RAM, he said, so Apple's A9 and upcoming high-end application processors will follow this trend over the next two years.
富邦投顧彭國維在7月份發表的報告中則表示：「我們認為因為良率考量，蘋果在A9處理器會放棄最新的FinFET技術，維持採用20奈米製程設計。」他指出，台積電目前是唯一能以扇出式封裝整合應用處理器與行動記憶體的晶圓代工廠，因此蘋果的A9處理器以及之後的高階應用處理器，會在接下來兩年都依循該發展趨勢。
http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1324211&print=yes
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