Small Sample Size Theater Part 2
鵜鶘隊的小樣本劇場（第二集）
（底下連結有網誌版）
The Pelicans are 3-0 since Ryan Anderson returned, though you can temper that
by pointing out the fact that they have played all three teams at home and
the combined record of said teams is 11-30. However, we have to remember that
we did lose to poor teams before Ryan Anderson returned, so there has
definitely been an improvement. It is just the extent of the improvement that
we do not know yet.
自從Ryan Anderson歸隊後，鵜鶘隊獲得3連勝的好成績。雖然你可以藉著指出這
三場比賽都在主場而且三個對手加起來的戰績是11勝30敗的事實，以舒緩三連勝
的喜悅。不過，我們必須記住在Ryan Anderson歸隊前，我們的確輸給幾個較差的
球隊，所以球隊肯定有所進步。只是我們還不清楚進步的程度而已。
For now, let us bask in the glory of a team averaging 114.7 points per game
since Ryan Anderson’s return as we look at our second installment of Small
Sample Size Theater.
現在，在我們瞧瞧小樣本劇場的第二集的同時，讓我們享受Ryan Anderson歸隊後
令人驕傲的場均114.7分吧！（以下三個小標題是我自行加上的）
- The Finishing Five (though I also like a readers suggestion for the ‘
Ballot Five’) has been unreal in their limited time together on the court.
Simple stats: 22 minutes on the floor, 68 points scored, 41 points allowed.
They outscore their opponents by over a point per minute. Seriously, think
about that. The score of a 48 minute game would be 148-89.
（1）關鍵五人組的效率：
比賽終結五人組（我也喜歡讀者建議的「全明星候選人五人組」（譯按：這五人
組指的是Davis-Anderson-Evans-Gordon-Holiday））在有限的合作時間內，有著
電動般的數據。一些簡單的數據：22分鐘內，得68分、失41分。他們平均每一分
鐘比對手多得超過一分。認真的想一想這個數據。假設換成48分鐘的話，總分數
會變成148比89。
Now, to dig a little deeper. Some might think that with Anderson on the
court, and above average three-point shooters in Holiday and Gordon, that
this unit would be letting it fly from deep, but only 17% of their attempts
have come from behind the arc. That would rank them dead last in the NBA
amongst all teams, though they would be first in percentage made, because
they hit 75% of them! Where that unit is getting its shots is at the rim. 29
of their 47 shots (61.7%) are coming at the rim or in the paint. Only 8 of
their 47 shots have come in the “dumb zone”.
現在，再更深入探討。有些人會認為當Anderson在場上，配上Holiday和Gordon這
兩位平均程度以上的三分射手時，這個組合會下三分雨。但事實上只有17%的出手
是來自三分線外。這個比率在所有NBA球隊中是最後一名，不過他們會是命中率最
高的組合，因為他們三分球命中率高達75%！而這個球隊獲得的出手機會大多都在
籃框附近。47次出手中的29次（61.7%）來自於籃下或油漆區出手。只有8次出手
來自「蠢區域」（譯按：指的是效率最低的中距離）。
And this unit could get even better offensively by getting to the line and
converting. Despite all their shots in the paint, they have only got to the
line for 11 attempts and have missed five of them. Defensively, that unit is
turning teams over (19 TO’s per 48) and rebounding misses (Dreb rate of
82.3%). Opponents take a high rate of shots from behind the arc – over 44% –
but make very few of them (26.7%). They also get a good percentage of their
shots in the paint -38.2% – but aren’t shooting from well there, partly due
to Anthony Davis’s block rate of nearly 10%.
而且這個組合可以藉由上罰球線得分，讓團隊進攻變的更好。儘管他們在油漆區
大量出手，他們只有11罰機會而且投失5罰。防守方面，這個組合能使對手失誤（
每48分鐘造成19次失誤），和能保護防守籃板（防守籃板率82.3%）。對手的三分
出手比率高達44%以上，但是命中率很低（26.7%）。對手的油漆區出手比率38.2
也不差，但命中率也不佳，部分歸因於Anthony Davis將近10%的火鍋率。
Long story short, this team gets to the rim and converts, only takes three’s
when it is a wide open look, crashes the glass on both ends, and has perhaps
the best defensive player in the league turning high percentage shots into
low percentage shots for the opposition. Sounds like a recipe for success;
148-89 type success.
簡言之，這支球隊能打進籃下並成功得分、只在大空檔機會才投三分、攻守兩端
都拼命爭搶籃板，而且潛在的聯盟最佳的防守球員讓對手無法把握高命中率的出
手機會。聽起來像是148比89這種類型的成功組合。
- One of the biggest questions coming into the season was whether Ryan
Anderson and Anthony Davis could play together. Last year, their units were
very good offensively, but they were miserable on the defensive end. So, can
they play together? The very small sample size says yes.
（2）Anthony Davis + Ryan Anderson的禁區組合：
這季的最大難題就是Ryan Anderson和Anthony Davis能否在場上配合。上季，這
個組合的進攻很優異，但防守端是場悲劇。所以他們能同時在場上嗎？這個超小
樣本的答案是沒問題。
In three games, they have logged 53 minutes together and the Pelicans have
outscored the competition 141-104 in that stretch. Again, we see a very high
percentage of shots taken and shots made around the rim, with surprisingly
poor shooting from behind the arc. From straight away, the Pelicans are 4-5
on three-point attempts (all four makes by Anderson), but are just 3-11 from
every other spot behind the arc. But we know any unit with Davis and Anderson
on it can score, it is on the defensive end that they will be judged.
在這三場比賽中，他們倆同時在場上打了53分鐘，而這段時間內鵜鶘隊以141比104
的差距壓著對手打。我們再一次看到籃框附近的高出手比率和高命中率，配上令
人意外的低三分命中率。在弧頂位置的三分，鵜鶘隊5投4中（這四球都是Anderson
投進的），但其它位置的三分只有11投3中。但我們都知道Davis和Anderson的雙
人搭配沒有得分問題，是防守端才需要被檢視。
First things first, the AD/Ryno units control the board, grabbing 88.4% of
all possible defensive rebounds. And with Davis playing center in those
lineups, the block rate skyrockets to 13.9%. Fearing Davis’s presence in the
paint, teams settle for bad three’s more often and make just 23% from behind
the arc. So, can these two play together? Yes. And why? Well, Monty’s
defensive scheme hasn’t changed much, nor has the defensive effort of Ryan
Anderson. You can argue that the perimeter defenders have had some effect,
and that is true, but more than anything it is the evolution of Anthony
Davis. SkyNet has become self-aware!
首先，AD/Ryno組合掌控了籃板，抓下88.4%的防守籃板。而且當Davis在這些陣
容中扛中鋒時，火鍋率攀升至13.9%。由於害怕Davis在油漆區開的火鍋店，對手
更常選擇投機會不好的三分而且命中率只有23%。所以，這兩個人能同時在場上
嗎？答案是肯定的。為什麼呢？這個嘛～Monty的防守策略沒有什麼改變，而Ryan
Anderson的防守積極度也無不同。你可以主張是因為外圍防守者的努力，而這個
論點是正確的，但更重要的原因是Anthony Davis的成長。就像天網進化出自我
意識了（譯按：來自電影－魔鬼終結者）！
- With the Pelicans moving more and more to a three-big rotation and Austin
Rivers seemingly taking the backup PG spot from Brian Roberts, the
Rivers-Evans-Morrow-Anderson-Smith unit is essentially our second unit. This
unit has played just a handful of minutes together, but the early returns are
encouraging. They take more than half their shots from behind the three-point
line and draw fouls at a ridiculously high rate (1 FTA for every 2FGA’s).
（3）替補的最佳組合：
由於Pelicans的長人輪替越來越趨向只用三個大個，而且Austin Rivers似乎取
代Brian Roberts的替補控衛位置，Rivers-Evans-Morrow-Anderson-Smith五人
陣容現在是鵜鶘的主要二軍。這個組合只出現幾分鐘，但目前為止效果很不錯。
他們三分出手超過一半，同時製造犯規的比率高的離譜（每兩次出手就獲得一次
罰球機會）。
What might really make fans giddy is this unit has never attempted a
mid-range shot. Not a single one. Every attempt has been in the paint or
behind the arc. Defensively, they are nothing to write home about. They
defend the arc, and do everything else at about an average rate, but because
their offense has been so good, they have outscored their opponents by a
nearly two-to-one margin and should be able to hold leads, if not extend them
as the season goes on.
會讓球迷們感到驚訝的是這個組合目前還沒出手過一次中距離。一次都沒有喔！
所有出手都是在油漆區內或三分線外。防守方面，這個陣容並沒有什麼吸引人的
表現。他們無論防守三分還是其他防守面的事都只有平均水平，但因這個陣容的
進攻表現極優，他們以2比1的得分差距壓制對手。同時，接下來的賽季即使他們
無法擴大領先差距，這個組合應該能保持領先優勢。
原文網址－
http://tinyurl.com/ld6kuec
心得：
有興趣看第一集的的話，網址如下
http://www.bourbonstreetshots.com/2013/11/17/small-sample-size-theater/
因為這集談比較多Ryan Anderson回歸後對鵜鶘的正面影響
而且我個人認為他隊鵜鶘相當重要
所以只分享這篇
由於只是小樣本，而且這三場對手分別是爵士、七六人、騎士
所以數據肯定還會有很大的變動
但可以看的出來鵜鶘磨合的不錯，而且慢慢步上正軌
接下來鵜鶘的賽程會越來越硬
對這些年輕球員來說，保持穩定並不簡單
不過只要維持健康，我想這支球隊值得大家多多關注
（PS. 對其他球隊的分析文有興趣都可以提出來）