Deja Vu in Chicago
悲劇再次在芝加哥上演
（底下連結有圖文部落格版）
Some thoughts after a very depressing weekend of NBA basketball has left the
league feeling unusually unsettled for this time of season, with scads of
injuries and so many (Eastern Conference) teams with high internal
expectations floundering horribly:
由於大量的傷病消息以及多數自我期許很高但正痛苦掙扎的（東區）球隊，在一
個令人沮喪的NBA周末過後，一些想法讓不安感少見的在球季開始便瀰漫全聯盟。
With Derrick Rose officially lost for the season, we don't need any more
reminders about just how much luck and health-related fortune goes into
winning even a single championship. All the VERY LOUD SHOUTING about
"ringzzzzz" might obscure this, but how many rings would Michael Jordan own
if Scottie Pippen had developed chronic knee issues? Bill Russell went down
midway through the 1958 Finals, which the Celtics lost, and injuries both
major and minor have tipped the balance of every postseason since. We would
do well to remember season-altering issues to contender centerpieces
(Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Willis Reed, Jerry West, Kevin Garnett, Oscar
Robertson, Dave DeBusschere, Russell Westbrook, Andrew Bynum, Isiah Thomas,
etc.) and sub-stars (Jameer Nelson, Sam Cassell, Lakers-era Karl Malone, Gus
Johnson, and on, and on) the next time someone screams about how pathetic and
"unclutch" it is that Player X hasn't won a ring. Health plays a giant role
in deciding the champion — in literally every season.
因為Derrick Rose正式宣布球季報銷，我們不再需要強調贏得總冠軍需要多少的
運氣和健康因子，即使只贏一座亦然。一堆關於「冠軍重要性」的主流言論可能
蒙蔽了這件事，但假設Scottie Pippen有著長期的膝蓋問題，Michael Jordan會
擁有多少冠軍戒呢？Bill Russell在1958年總冠軍戰中途便因傷倒下，導致塞爾
迪克輸球，而且在往後的季後賽無論大小傷都左右著戰局。在下次某些人大聲談
到某某沒贏得冠軍的球員多麼可悲和手軟時，我們應當好好的記著那些因冠軍爭
奪者隊內重心（Russell、Wilt Chamberlain、Willis Reed、Jerry West、Kevin
Garnett、Oscar Robertson、Dave DeBusschere、Russell Westbrook、Andrew
Bynum、Isiah Thomas…等等）或次核心（Jameer Nelson、Sam Cassell、穿湖
人球衣的Karl Malone、Gus Johnson…族繁不及備載）受傷而改變賽季走向的重
要事件。健康是影響總冠軍的重要因素，每個球季都是如此。
For all the attention on the wonky basketball mysteries SportVU tracking
cameras might solve, the real holy grail is combining that technology with
others that might lead to some tiny slice of enlightenment on injury
prediction and prevention. It will never be an exact science — not in our
lifetimes, anyway. But any team that learns some small truth about injuries
will have gained a valuable edge.
在所有SportVU追蹤攝影機可能解決的籃球迷團中，最為重要的是將其結合其他技
術便可能發現傷病預測和防治的一線希望。這將永遠不會成為一個真精確的科學，
至少不會在我們還在世時。但任何球隊能學習到一絲絲關於傷痛的真相，那他們
將獲得價值匪淺的優勢。
The Bulls find themselves in a very tricky situation. This is a taxed-out
team, built around Rose, constructed to win the title now. Rose tore the
medial portion of his meniscus, the piece of cartilage that runs along the
inside of a player's knee. That is a small bit of good news. A 2011 study
published in the American Journal of Sports Medicine found NBA players were
disproportionately likely to tear the lateral meniscus, the portion of
cartilage that does a bit more athletic work and carries a longer recovery
time.
公牛隊現在置身於尷尬的情形。他們是支超過薪資上限的球隊，以Rose為核心建
隊並打造出總冠軍級球隊。Rose撕裂了半月板的中間部分，這部分的軟骨是隨著
球員膝蓋在運轉。這倒是有個好消息。一個刊在美國運動醫學期刊的研究發現NBA
球員大多數都傾向於撕裂半月板的側面區域，而這部分的軟骨負責比較多運動相
關活動，並需要更多的恢復時間。
Rose has avoided that, at least. The Bulls will likely choose to mend the
torn portion of Rose's meniscus if they can, though the medial side has
weaker blood flow, which can make it more challenging to pull off a full
stitching, according to several doctors and trainers. A full mending carries
a recovery time that can last between three and four months, and often even
longer; Westbrook took nearly six months to fully recover from his meniscus
tear, and that was before learning he needed a second clean-up operation
before this season. Snipping out the damaged portion of the meniscus allows
for much quicker recovery, but snipping out too much of it can leave the
player vulnerable to long-term bone-on-bone issues.
Rose至少避免傷了那部分。公牛隊在狀況允許下，很可能選擇讓Rose半月板的撕
裂區塊痊癒。雖然根據一些醫生和訓練員的說法，中間側的血流較少，因此讓縫
合更難以完成。完全的痊癒需要三到四個月，或甚至更長的恢復時間。Westbrook
花將近六個月才從半月板撕裂傷中痊癒，而且這還不算在季前他發現膝蓋需要第
二個清理碎片手術。直接除去半月板受損傷的部分會縮短恢復時間，但除去太多
的話會讓球員更易於受長期膝蓋骨碰骨的傷痛折磨。
The Bulls will make the playoffs if they wish to do so. The East is a giant
pile of flaming basketball dung after Indiana, Miami, Atlanta, and Chicago,
and the Bulls proved last season that Tom Thibodeau's defense and some canny
ball movement is enough to keep them around .500. And, hell, .500 could get
you a damn trophy in the Eastern Conference this season.
公牛隊只要有意願，便可以打進季後賽。東區在溜馬、熱火、老鷹和公牛之後，
是一大坨搶狀元球隊，而公牛隊在上季證明Tom Thibodeau的防守和一些聰明的
團隊籃球便足以讓他們保持五成左右勝率。而且還真見鬼了，五成勝率可以讓你
在這季的東區得到一座該死的獎杯。
It's true that this Chicago team, with Mike Dunleavy and Mike James/Marquis
Teague in the places of Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli, is comparatively
lacking in ball handlers. That hurts. James has played nine minutes all
season, Dunleavy is mostly a spot-up guy with a bit of one-dribble-and-pass
panache, and Teague hasn't resembled an NBA player in his limited time. (He
belongs in the D-League, but I'm not sure the Bulls are familiar with the
D-League. Just kidding — they are, I swear! But they haven't acted as such.)
Deng gets by with crafty movement that generates a teensy bit of separation,
and Jimmy Butler hasn't grasped a larger share of the offense to date. And
Butler's hurt for now, anyway, leaving Kirk Hinrich far too much
responsibility.
事實上，公牛隊以Mike Dunleavy和Mike James／Marquis Teague取代Nate
Robinson和Marco Belinelli的陣容，相對來說缺乏了控球者。而這的確傷害著
球隊。James目前總共只上場9分鐘、Dunleavy主要是位有著運一次便傳球習慣的
定點射手，而Teague在目前有限的上場時間內還沒有表現的像個NBA球員。（他
的程度屬於發展聯盟，但我不太確定公牛隊是否熟悉發展聯盟。我只是開玩笑的
啦！我發誓他們熟悉發展聯盟，但表現起來不像就是了。）Deng的巧妙過人讓他
和其他人稍有差距，而Jimmy Butler這季至今還沒有在球隊進攻端給予大量幫助
。反正Butler現在也受傷了，使得Kirk Hinrich肩膀上的擔子更難以負荷。
Chicago is nearly $8 million over the tax line; adding even one
minimum-salaried player to what is already a bare-bones 13-man roster is a
very expensive proposition for a team that never even paid a dollar in tax
until last season.
公牛隊超過奢侈稅上限約莫8百萬。這對一支已經人手緊缺的13陣容，同時在去年
以前從未繳過豪華稅的球隊來說，再加入一名底薪球員也是相當昂貴的決定。
But the Bulls are an obvious playoff team, regardless. The question is
whether they should maintain this roster in hopes of coalescing late in the
season upon Rose's return, or cut bait and begin repurposing the team for its
next era — while potentially cutting this season's tax bill in the process.
但公牛隊無論如何都顯然是支季後賽等級球隊。問題在於他們是否該維持現有陣
容，並期望Rose在球季末端回歸後整合好球隊，或是就此打住並準備開啟球隊的
新時代，同時在過程中盡可能的減少球隊的豪華稅支出。
That begins, and might well end, with Deng's $14 million expiring contract.
The Bulls tabled extension talks with Deng before the season, but they've
always maintained privately that they'd like to re-sign him as a long-term
piece. Thibodeau adores him, almost to the point of physical destruction.
交易要從Deng的1千4百萬到期約開始討論起，而或許也會以這筆合約作結束。公
牛隊在季前把Deng的延長合約談判暫且擱置，但他們一直以來私底下都保持著重
簽他為球隊長期核心的意願。Thibodeau熱愛他，幾乎到達摧毀他身體的程度。
But he's nearly 29, seeking an eight-figure annual salary, with a weird
injury history and minute totals in the rearview that make you wince just
looking at them. Any team would be justified in feeling queasy about
committing four years of big salary to Deng.
但他年近29歲的他在尋求一份八位數年薪的合約，同時有著詭異的傷病史及上場
時間，讓你光是用看的就會退縮。任何對於給予Deng大合約感到不安的球隊，都
是情有可原的。
Keeping Deng on the books would also kill the (very tenuous) possibility of
Chicago carving out max-level/LeBron-level cap space this summer, even if
they were to use the amnesty provision on the final season of Carlos Boozer's
massive contract. If the Bulls think this era is basically dead, they'd be
wise to test the trade market for Deng rather than let him walk for nothing.
把Deng留著陣中也會扼殺公牛在這個暑假創造出頂級／LeBron級薪資空間的（極
小）可能性，即使他們準備把特赦條款用在Carlos Boozer最後一年的大筆合約
亦然。如果公牛認為這個時代根本該結束了，那比起白白讓他離開，公牛隊把
Deng拿去市場上試水溫將是明智的選擇。
The market for expiring contracts has been cool in recent seasons, as teams
have learned to properly value first-round picks over a few months of
contract-year production from a trade piece. But Deng is a well-regarded
Swiss army knife of a player who doesn't require touches and could fit within
any system. Chicago might be able to pry a late first-round pick from some
borderline contender in exchange for Deng — the desperate Wizards just
coughed up a potential lottery pick for Marcin "the towel ripper" Gortat —
but even if they can't, the Bulls might net some combination of savings and
second-round picks. Potential Deng suitors could include:
到期合約的市場近幾季來稍稍冷卻下來，因為球隊正確的認知到首輪簽的交易價
值高於剩幾個月的到期約價值。不過Deng是被大家熟知的瑞士軍刀型球員，他不
需要大量觸球而且可以融入任何系統。公牛隊可能可以透過交易Deng，從某支季
後賽邊緣球隊手上偷到首輪後段的選秀簽。鋌而走險的巫師隊才剛噴出一個潛在
的樂透簽為了換來「毛巾殺手」Marcin Gortat。但即使他們無法給出首輪簽，公
牛還是可以賺到些省錢和二輪簽的組合。潛在的Deng追求者包含：
Cleveland:
克里夫蘭騎士隊：
The Cavs are a disaster with a revolving cast of bricklayers at small
forward, an ownership group that talked very loudly about making noise in the
postseason, and a pile of trade assets. Deng would help this season without
soaking up the cap space Cleveland has saved up to make another run at
LeBron. (Stop laughing!)
騎士隊是所有的小前鋒投籃都不太準、老闆大言不慚的說要在季後賽有一番作為，
而且有滿滿交易資產的災難球隊。Deng可以在不佔掉騎士隊為了爭奪LeBron所留
下的薪資空間的前提下，在這季幫助這支球隊。（關於LeBron的事別再笑了好嗎
！）
Milwaukee:
密爾瓦基公鹿隊：
The Bucks have stumbled into a tanking gold mine, but their owner, Herb Kohl,
has long been open about his preference that the Bucks compete for a
bottom-rung playoff spot instead of chasing Ping-Pong balls. Caron Butler
exploded over the weekend against Philly, but he's aging and unreliable.
Carlos Delfino is done for a long time. Giannis Antetokounmpo isn't ready.
Khris Middleton has shown flashes, but is mostly unproven. The Bucks have
expiring contracts that can fit, plus more second-round picks than anyone in
the league.
公鹿隊現在跌到搶狀元的好位置，但他們的老闆Herb Kohl一直都表示他喜歡公鹿
隊爭取季後賽末段席次而非樂透簽。Caron Butler在周末對戰七六人時大爆發，
但他依然已經老化且無法依靠。Carlos Delfino有很長一段時間無法上場。Giannis
Antetokounmpo還不夠格。Khris Middleton有些閃耀時刻，但還沒有經過足夠考
驗。公鹿隊有著適合交易的到期約，加上聯盟中無人能比的二輪簽數量。
Atlanta:
亞特蘭大老鷹隊：
Come on, Hawks! The Eastern Conference is in flames around you! You're the
third-best team in the conference now by complete accident! Go for it! This
roster is built to trade, and Paul Millsap, on a bargain deal, will instantly
become perhaps the league's most tradable player when the calendar flips to
December 15. Millsap is a valuable piece, and the Millsap/Al Horford pairing
gives Atlanta impeccable spacing. But he's also something of a Horford Lite,
and if Danny Ferry can turn him into a game-changing wing or center (Omer
Asik?), then they should at least think about it — especially if said trade
target carries an expiring contract that doesn't impact the cap flexibility
Ferry has worked so carefully to build.
上啊，老鷹！你身邊的東區球隊現在陷入火海中！你現在是分區第三好的球隊完
全是個意外！衝一發！這個陣容就是拿來交易的，而且當交易開始日12月15一到
，把Paul Millsap擺在交易桌上的瞬間，他將成為聯盟最好交易的球員。Millsap
是個有價值的球員，而且Millsap／Al Horford組合給予老鷹隊無懈可擊的進攻空
間。但他也像是個精簡版的Horford，而若Danny Ferry可以把他換成決定比賽的
側翼球員或是中鋒（Omer Asik？），那他們至少應該思考一下。尤其當交易標的
有著到期約，因而不影響Ferry謹慎控制的薪資彈性時，更應該好好考慮。
DeMarre Carroll has been game as the team's starting small forward, and it
has been nice watching him stroke 3s at a career-best rate. But he should be
a bench guy, and the Hawks have zero size on the wing behind him.
DeMarre Carroll本季一直擔任老鷹隊的先發小前鋒，而且看到他以生涯最佳的三
分命中率砍進三分球真的很不賴。但他應該是個板凳球員，同時老鷹隊在他之後
沒有任何具對抗性的側翼球員。
You could build a lot of interesting two- and three-team trades using the
Hawks. And Atlanta can swap first-round picks with Brooklyn, via the terms of
the Joe Johnson deal, in each of the next two drafts — a little trade tidbit
that now looks like a straight-up coup.
你可以用老鷹隊模擬出一堆有趣的兩方或三分交易。而且老鷹隊可以透過Joe
Johnson交易得到的首輪簽交換權，和籃網隊換取未來兩次選秀會的簽。本該是交
易案中的小福利，但現在看起來真是個妙計。
New York:
紐約尼克隊：
Never underestimate the lunacy of a 3-9 team whose owner actually thinks they
should be title contenders. The Knicks can't trade any first-round pick
before their 2018 selection (thanks, Andrea!), but the Bulls might be able to
foist the Deng/Boozer platter onto New York for Iman Shumpert, Amar'e
Stoudemire's body, and a future pick.
可能作出的失心瘋行為。尼克隊無法交易任何2018選秀會以前的首輪簽（謝囉！
Andrea Bargnani！），但公牛隊可能有辦法用Deng／Boozer組合騙到尼克的Iman
Shumpert、Amar’e Stoudemire的身體和一支未來選秀簽。
You could make the case for San Antonio and Oklahoma City, both in need of
backup small forwards, and with small-ball friendly rosters that could
incorporate another rangy wing without suffering major diminishing returns.
But the Thunder are only $1.4 million under the tax, making it difficult for
them to take on Deng's salary and offer the Bulls much in the way of savings.
The same is true for Memphis, which has a bit more breathing room under the
tax but lacks a big expiring contract or a tradable first-round pick. The
Wolves have a ready package on hand of Derrick Williams, J.J. Barea, and
Alexey Shved, but Corey Brewer has fit in nicely at small forward, and said
package leaves Chicago with more long-term money on the books than it has
now. The Nuggets and Pellies, the latter currently starting Al-Farouq Aminu's
broken moon-ball jump shot at small forward, introduce the same issue of
long-term money coming back to Chicago in any workable Deng deals.
也有足夠的理由和馬刺隊及雷霆隊交易，這兩支都需要替補小前鋒，而且都適合
小球的陣容，可以在不減少球員價值的情形下，加上一個進攻範圍廣的側翼球員
。但雷霆隊再多1百4十萬就要付豪華稅，這使得他們並不容易吃下Deng的薪資同
時讓公牛有省錢空間。這情況也適用灰熊隊，雖然他們有比較多的薪資公間，但
缺少大的到期約及可交易的首輪簽。灰狼隊手頭上有一包隨時可擺上桌的交易組
合，內含Derrick Williams、J.J. Barea和Alexey Shved。但Corey Brewer在灰
狼的小前鋒位置打得很好，而且上述那包會讓公牛隊負擔比現在還要更多的長約
。至於金塊和鵜鶘，後者現在的先發小前鋒是擁有殘破弧度跳投的Al-Farouq
Aminu，在任何可行的Deng交易中都有著讓公牛拿到長約的問題。
Bottom line: Chicago is toast as a contender without Rose, and if the Bulls
conclude that the odds are against Rose returning to anything like peak form
this season, they should begin exploring trades now. The foundation for the
next Bulls team is already here, in Rose, Noah, Butler, the overseas star
Nikola Mirotic, and an extra first-round pick the Bobcats still owe Chicago
for (gulp) Tyrus Thomas. Butler can guard most small forwards already; it
would be worthwhile to test the market for both Deng and Gibson.
結論：公牛隊沒有Rose便不可能被視為冠軍者隊，而若公牛隊斷定Rose這季以巔峰
身手回歸的可能性不高的話，那他們應當開始尋找交易的可能性。下一支公牛的
核心球員已經有Rose、Noah、Butler、海外球星Nikola Mirotic，和山貓為了換
得Tyrus Thomas丟掉的額外首輪簽。Butler已經可以防守大多數的小前鋒。去市
場上測試Deng和Gibson的價值挺值得的。
Please be well, Derrick.
拜託好起來吧，Derrick。
原文網址－
http://tinyurl.com/qztxkbc
心得：
由於文很長，又分為兩個部分
所以我將它分為兩篇文章
（下集：在NBA的急診室走一遭）
Rose的報銷對所有球迷來說都是個壞消息
尤其現在東區狀況有點慘
少了公牛等於少了個季後賽好看的對戰組合
不過對公牛來說
是時候考慮讓Rose好好休息
讓他從撕裂防線進攻為主的打法變成控球為主
趁這個機會找一個第一進攻手
這樣才不會讓Rose成為流星
Noah的傷勢還未痊癒，Butler還有傷
公牛也可以趁機讓這些未來球隊基石好好養傷
反正今年的狀況也很難拼贏溜馬和熱火
放眼未來或許更好
心情跟文內最後一句一樣
好起來吧！Rose！