The Rudy Gay Principle
甲甲原理
(部落格影音圖文好讀版：http://mola79321.pixnet.net/blog/post/346598522)
In their 1969 book The Peter Principle, Laurence Peter and Raymond Hull
dissected the relationship between promotions and competence in the
workplace. The core idea was that workers continue to get promoted, so long
as they produce effectively, but at some point they get promoted one too many
times and are unable to remain efficient. Peter and Hull refer to this as the
“level of incompetence” and suggest that many jobs tend “to be occupied by
an employee who is incompetent to carry out their duties.”
在1969時，Laurence Peter和Raymond Hull研究在職場上升遷和能力之間的關係
，並把研究內容發表在「The Peter Principle」這本書中。其核心概念在說只要
員工能產生效率，那就會不斷的被升職。但被升到某個高度便無法保持應有生產
效率。Peter和Hull將其稱為「不適任程度」，而且指出很多工作岡位易於被無法
勝任此職位的員工佔據。
（看籃球長知識：「彼得原理」維基百科
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%BD%BC%E5%BE%97%E5%8E%9F%E7%90%86）
In terms of basketball analytics, the great Dean Oliver put forth a similar
notion. In his book, Basketball on Paper, Oliver introduces the “skill curve,
” which examines the relationship between the usage and efficiency of NBA
players. Oliver theorizes that players are efficient up to some usage
threshold, but beyond that point they become less efficient. One reason bad
NBA teams are populated by players with bad stats is that those guys are
asked to perform beyond their limits.
以籃球分析來說，偉大的Dean Oilver提出一個類似的概念。在他的書「Basketball
on Paper」中，Oliver提出「技巧曲線」這個概念。其是在探討NBA球員使用率
和效率的關係。Oliver從其推論出，當球員的效率在某個使用率上限前會上升，
但過了那個極限點後效率反而會下降。NBA中較差的球隊有一堆數據爛的球員的
其中一個原因就是這些人被要求要超越他們的極限。
About five weeks ago the Raptors traded Rudy Gay to Sacramento. Since then, he
’s looked like a marvelous scorer (not a typo). As a Raptor, Gay was using
an insane 31 percent of Raptors possessions (a mark higher than Kevin Durant,
Carmelo Anthony, and LeBron James); he was easily on pace to set his career
high in that category. Coincidentally or not, Gay was also on pace to bottom
out in a lot of efficiency measures.
大約五周前，暴龍把Rudy Gay交易到國王隊。自從那天開始，他表現的像是位了
不起的得分手。我是認真的！還在穿暴龍球衣時，Gay的球權使用率高達31%。這
數據比Kevin Durant、Carmelo Anthony和LeBron James三位頂級小前鋒都還要高
。他正朝著創下使用率的生涯新高的紀錄邁進。好巧不巧，他也即將在效率數據
方面創下生涯新低。
He was doing this kind of stuff:
他在暴龍的表現…請看VCR：
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YixCxTXtuvs
Then he got traded.
然後他就被交易了。
Since arriving in Sacramento, Gay’s numbers have been great. Oliver himself
sees Gay as an example of the skill curve phenomenon: “It is pretty dramatic
how much more efficient Gay has been in years where he hasn’t used a lot of
possessions. Twice in Memphis and now in Sacramento, he uses fewer
possessions and his efficiency goes from below-average or average to above.”
自從批上國王戰袍後，Gay的數據非常亮眼。Oliver他自己認為Gay是技巧曲線現
象的最佳代表：
「這幾年中當Gay的使用率不高時，他的效率便大幅提升。在灰熊時有兩次，而現
在在國王隊亦是如此。他的使用率下降時，他在場上的效率便從低於平均或中庸上
升至平均以上。」
Gay’s overall field goal percentage has shot up from 39 percent in Toronto
to 53 percent in Sacramento. He is basically shooting from the same spots,
but less frequently. In Toronto he averaged 19 shots per 36 minutes; in
Sacramento that’s down to 15, and his attempts are going in more frequently,
especially in the midrange and close to the basket.
Gay整體的命中率從暴龍隊時的39%上升至國王隊時的53%。他的出手位置基本上沒
有差別，但減少出手次數。他在暴龍時每36分鐘便出手19次。在國王時減到15次
。同時，他的進球率越來越高，尤其是中距離和籃框附近的出手。
http://ppt.cc/g0dz
As of Monday, Gay had made exactly 50 percent of his 92 midrange attempts in
Sacramento. Those are Dirk Nowitzki numbers. Back in Toronto he made only 35
percent in that zone. But the biggest development has been close to the
basket, where he’s been ferocious. As a Raptor, Gay made only 43 percent of
his shots inside of eight feet. Those are Ricky Rubio numbers. As a King,
that number has boomed to 65 percent.
在禮拜一時，Gay在國王隊92次中距離出手的命中率剛好50%。這是Dirk Nowitzki
級的中距離命中率。還在當鐵甲暴龍時，他的中距離只有35%的命中率。但進步最
多的位置還是在籃框附近，而他在籃框附近的表現可以說是兇猛無比。還留在多
倫多時，Gay八呎內的命中率只有43%。這可以說是Ricky Rubio級的籃下命中率。
但來到沙加緬度後，命中率飆高到65%。
Despite his increased efficiency, Gay is still not worth $17.89 million per
year. This is not his fault, and to quote my coworker, “keep gettin’ them
checks, Rudy.” Players don’t build rosters, they don’t write the
contracts, and they don’t design the offenses. Rudy Gay, the player, has
been traded two times in the last year. But it’s perhaps more accurate to
say that Rudy Gay, the contract, has been off-loaded twice.
儘管他的效率提高了，Gay依舊不值年薪1,789萬美金。這不是他的錯。而且就像
我同事說的「繼續賺他們的錢吧，Rudy。」球員不負責組球隊陣容、他們不需要
寫合約內容，而且設計進攻戰術不是他們的責任。Rudy Gay身為一位球員，在去
年一年內被交易兩次。不過更精確的說法應該是Rudy Gay的合約，在去年被擺脫
兩次。
Within the cap-obsessed NBA, Gay has been promoted to the level of his
incompetence. Within the Toronto offense he was pushed to the wrong side of
Oliver’s skill curve.
在這著迷於薪資的NBA聯盟，Gay的加薪超過他能力所及的高度。在暴龍的進攻戰
術中，他被迫表現出Oliver「技巧曲線」效率差的那一段。
But the argument that he’s bad at basketball is foolish. He’s clearly
talented, and in the right environment he could be a poor man’s James
Worthy. This fact was not lost on Kings GM Pete D’Alessandro, who expressed
skepticism in the analytical dismissals of Gay immediately after the trade:
但主張說他籃球打不好是愚蠢的事。他明顯有天份，而且在對的環境中打球，他
可以打得像是窮人版James Worthy。國王隊GM Pete D’Alessandro理解這件事實
，他也在Gay交易案後關於擺脫掉Gay的分析文中保持懷疑態度：
“We look at him differently than maybe others do. I feel like a lot of times
with certain players, it’s where they’re getting the ball, it’s where they
’re scoring, it’s the position they’re put in. And I think we have a good
idea, we’re talking as a staff a little bit, we have a good idea of what
positions that we’d like to put him in.”
「我們看他的角度和其他人可能不太一樣。我認為很多時候對一些特定球員來說
，重點在於他們在哪拿到球、他們在哪個位置得分、他們的球隊角色是如何定位
。我們這些幕後人員對於該如何定位他有著不錯的想法。」
In other words, tactics and stuff like that are important.
換句話說，戰略是很重要的。
Gay has gone from leading man to character actor; his usage is way down and
his efficiency is way up. Like he did in Memphis, he’s making the most of
his touches by getting more points in transition and off turnovers, and a
higher share of his field goals are assisted. He’s taking fewer atrocious
pull-up jumpers.
Gay從主角變成性格演員。他的使用率大幅下降，而效率卻大幅提升。像在灰熊
隊一樣，他大部分的得分來自於攻守轉換和失誤後的得分，同時更多部分的進球
來自於助攻。他減少糟糕的拔起來跳投出手。
Because Gay makes $17.89 million, there’s an implication he is one of the
most valuable assets in the entire league. He is not. And while players and
their contracts are deservedly intertwined in many analyses, any productive
conversation about Gay has to somehow both acknowledge and look beyond his
ridiculous financial situation. More than three years ago, the executives in
Memphis overvalued and overpaid him. Now what?
就因為Gay的年薪是1,789萬美金，這數字表示他是整個聯盟中最有價值的資產之
一。但他不是。而正因球員和其身價在很多分析中被理所當然的連在一起討論，
任何關於Gay球場效率的談論，都不知怎的要和他那荒唐的合約一起被審視。三
年多前，灰熊隊的GM高估他並給他不合身價的合約。那現在呢？
He’s obviously capable of being a really good NBA player, but he’s not ever
going to be the alpha dog on any great team. That’s why he’s a really
interesting case study. He may be the face of the Peter Principle in the NBA
right now, but does that mean we overlook his talents? What happens to good
young players who get overpaid or overused?
他顯然的能成為一位優秀的NBA球員，但他永遠不會在任何一支頂級球隊成為一哥
。因此他算是個非常有趣的個案。他現在可能就代表著NBA的「彼得原理」，但這
表示我們忽略他的天份嗎？若有一位年輕球員的合約簽貴了或是被過度使用的話
又會發生什麼事呢？
The Kings are betting that they can absorb overpaying for Gay, and that
paying for his talents does not equate to over-relying upon them. Through
five weeks it looks like a decent wager. He looks good alongside DeMarcus
Cousins, who is an alpha dog, and Isaiah Thomas. The Kings have won six of
their last 10 games, including impressive victories against Houston, Miami,
and Portland. Gay’s current numbers may not be sustainable (they’re not),
but they still demonstrate he’s better than the player we saw in Toronto, he
still has a future in this league, and that future might be as a key
long-term piece in Sacramento.
國王賭他們可以承受Gay過高的合約，而且國王付錢讓他在場上發揮天分並不等同
於過度依賴他。就過去五周來看，這賭注頗不賴。他在DeMarcus Cousins和Isaiah
Thomas旁邊表現的很不錯，而Cousins正是所謂的一哥型球員。國王過去10場比賽
贏了6場，其中包含對上火箭、熱火和拓荒者三戰令人眼睛為之一亮的勝利。Gay
目前在國王的數據可能不會一直在高檔，但這些數字依舊表示他比起在暴龍隊時
表現更出色。也表示他在聯盟還有未來，而且這個未來可能就是國王隊關鍵的長
期建隊角色。
Then again, since trading Gay and his contract, Toronto has the best record
in the Eastern Conference.
另一方面，自從交易掉Gay和他的合約後，暴龍隊在東區的勝率是最佳的。
原文網址－
http://tinyurl.com/kyqh2ph
心得
Rudy Gay的案例可以說讓我們再次看到球員在不同的戰術體系下，會有多大的差距。
像是馬刺的Green，從被其他隊丟棄，到在總冠軍賽創造三分歷史。
同時，也是一次GM評估錯誤的血淋淋案例。但以灰熊隊當時的立場來說，小市場想要
搶下可能的球隊建隊基石也是不為過。畢竟簽約不是單單用球員能力評估這麼簡單。
這交易成為一筆雙贏的局，而且目前來說效果奇佳。會是曇花一線嗎？我們還要看下
去。
暴龍方面，交易後戰績直直衝，在今年一團爛的東區穩穩拿下季後賽席次應該不成問
題。
而國王方面就沒這麼簡單。雖然戰績變好了，但以今年西區的強度，要衝進季後賽還
真需要一點奇蹟。不過以目前的陣容，我想國王隊也能慢慢贏回球迷的心。而且照現
在的態勢走下去，放眼明年絕對不是夢。