原文網址:
http://ppt.cc/aGws
圖文網誌(附表格):
http://leelou.pixnet.net/blog/post/32073083
When we looked at the teammates that had defended the pick-and-roll the best
on Wednesday, Mo Williams and Robin Lopez were sixth on the list, but the
Portland Trail Blazers were nowhere near the top 10 in team rankings.
According to SportVU, the Blazers ranked 26th in pick-and-roll defense
through Monday’s games and are up to 22nd after a game against the reeling
Hawks on Wednesday. They’ve allowed 1.06 points per pick-and-roll possession
overall, even though they’ve been pretty good when Lopez has been the guy
defending the screener, allowing just 1.01. That ranks 55th among 134 players
who had been the screener’s defender on at least 200 pick-and-roll
possessions through Wednesday. Not great, but above-average.
Note: All stats included here are through Wednesday, March 5.
在上一篇討論溜馬防守的文章裡，針對pick-and-roll防守搭檔的排名，Mo Williams和
Robin Lopez高居第6，但是拓荒者全隊的數據卻連前10名都摸不著邊。
根據SportVU的資料，至星期一為止拓荒者面對擋拆時的防守排名第26，加上星期三對戰
近來步履蹣跚的老鷹後，也不過上升到第22名，他們每次遇上pick-and-roll的平均失分
為1.06分。雖然他們陣中的Lopez算得上是一名不錯的擋拆防守者，每個擋拆回合只會丟
掉1.01分，在134名至少守過200回合pick-and-roll的大個子中，排到第55名，儘管不是
頂尖高手，但也超過平均水準了。
註: 所有數據統計到3/5(三)為止。
But near the bottom of the list is Lopez’s frontcourt-mate, LaMarcus
Aldridge. The Blazers have allowed 1.17 points per possession when Aldridge
has been the guy defending the screener. Of those 134 players who have
defended at least 200 pick-and-roll possessions, only one – Trevor Booker –
has a higher mark (1.18).
The discrepancy between Lopez’s and Aldridge’s numbers is rather
remarkable, because both bigs basically defend pick-and-rolls the same way
(though Portland will mix things up a little with Aldridge). While the Pacers
drop back with their centers and show high with their power forwards, both
Aldridge (most of the time) and Lopez drop back…
但Lopez的前場搭擋LaMarcus Aldridge出現在這份名單的倒數幾名，當Aldridge面對擋拆
進攻時，拓荒者平均每次失分高達1.17分，在這134人中只贏過了Trevor Booker(1.18分)
。
Lopez和Aldridge的數據差異相當值得討論，因為這兩名大個子基本上在面對擋拆時都採
取一樣的策略(偶爾Aldridge會改變方式)，不像溜馬中鋒沉退、大前鋒跟出去的策略，
Aldridge(大部份的時候)和Lopez都選擇沉退…
http://ppt.cc/uUVa
http://ppt.cc/fg16
Who are they guarding?
Is it a power forward vs. center thing? The players Aldridge is guarding
(Dirk Nowitzki, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, etc.) are generally more potent
offensively than those Lopez is guarding. And the biggest difference in
Aldridge and Lopez’s numbers is the field goal percentage that the screener
has shot when he has got the ball…
But other defenses in the West don’t have the same discrepancy.
When the starting power forwards from the other top 10 teams in the West have
defended the screener on a pick-and-roll, the opponent has scored 1.02 points
per possession. And when the starting centers on those same teams have
defended the screener, the opponent has scored 1.02 points per possession. No
discrepancy at all.
The Suns’ pick-and-roll defense has been slightly better when Miles Plumlee
has defended the screener than when Channing Frye has, and the same goes for
the Warriors, Andrew Bogut and David Lee. But none of the other nine teams
has nearly the difference that we see with the Blazers.
是防守對象造成的不同嗎?
畢竟大前鋒和中鋒對位的進攻者非常不一樣，Aldridge防守的通常是更有進攻破壞力的球
員(Dirk Nowitzki、Blake Griffin、Kevin Love等)，而Aldridge和Lopez在數據上最大
的差異來自於對手掩護者的投籃命中率…
不過看看西區其他球隊的4號和5號位，並沒有這樣的差距。
西區前10名的球隊中，大前鋒對上擋拆時的每回合平均失分為1.02分，同時他們的中鋒也
是1.02分，完全一模一樣。
確實當Miles Plumlee面對pick-and-roll時，太陽的表現比Channing Frye防守時還要好
一點點，勇士這邊的Andrew Bogut和David Lee也是類似的情形，但是沒有任何一支球隊
像拓荒者一樣落差這麼大。
The eye test
Watching film, Aldridge doesn’t come across as a noticeably bad
pick-and-roll defender. He’s usually in the right position, he doesn’t get
caught standing still, or get turned around and lost on possessions (like a
couple of bigs in New York).
The Blazers track every defensive possession themselves and say that Aldridge
grades out closer the league average on pick-and-rolls (and that Lopez still
grades out as better). And when we look at the 57 percent that the screener
has shot on Aldridge-defended pick-and-rolls, we’re only talking about 132
shots, not the greatest sample size.
But Synergy Sports grades him as “poor” in regard to defending the roll
man. And it’s not hard to find examples (via NBA.com/stats video boxscores)
where he fails to close out and lets an opposing big shoot in rhythm…
直接觀看比賽時，很難理解Aldridge的擋拆防守效率這麼差，通常他都能站住有利的位置
，也不會站著不動或被輕易擺脫(像是紐約的前場大個)。
拓荒者檢視所有的防守後表示，Aldridge的擋拆防守接近平均水準(Lopez仍然評價較高)
，何況他的對手投籃命中率57%雖然很高，但這只不過是132次投籃的統計結果而已，樣本
空間其實不夠大。
可是Synergy Sports還是給予他的擋拆防守"不及格"的評價，而且要找到他防守不力的例
子非常簡單，這些影片中對手都有很大的空檔可以從容出手。
Example 1: Marc Gasol
http://on.nba.com/1jZOIVT
Example 2: David West
http://on.nba.com/1jZPan3
Example 3: Dante Cunningham
http://on.nba.com/1ihbW7Z
Example 4: Blake Griffin
http://on.nba.com/1ihcfzD
You can also find examples of him closing out fine, but other West power
forwards grade out better via SportVU. The screener takes more shots and
shoots them better against Aldridge than any of the other nine guys listed
below (from the other West teams at or above .500), even though they’ve all
had to defend Aldridge himself, who has attempted almost 200 more mid-range
shots than any other player in the league.
你也可以找到一些防守到位的例子，但是透過SportVU的統計，西區其他大前鋒的防守程
度都比他還好。進攻方的掩護者在面對Aldridge時的出手次數和投籃表現，都勝過面對表
格中的其他9名防守者(來自西區其他勝率5成的球隊)，而且這些人還得防守Aldridge，一
個中距離出手贏過第2名將近200次的進攻好手。
Right shots, wrong results
Again, we’re only looking at 132 of the 5,350 shots that Portland opponents
have attempted this season. And the Blazers do force the right shots.
The intent of their drop-back scheme is to force the least efficient shots on
the floor, between the restricted area and the 3-point line. And 45.4 percent
of Portland opponents’ shots have come from there. That’s the fifth highest
mark in the league, behind only teams that rank in the top five in defensive
efficiency. Portland also ranks in the top 10 in percentage of jump shots
that they’ve contested.
But their opponents have made 41 percent of those shots between the
restricted area and 3-point line, the fourth highest percentage.
其實這是正確的防守策略，只是結果不如人意罷了。再次強調，前面討論的僅僅是132次
出手的結果，而波特蘭本季對手的全部投籃次數是5350次。
拓荒者想做的其實沒錯，他們的沉退策略目的是迫使對手做沒有效率的投籃選擇，也就是
介於籃框下和三分線之間的區塊。拓荒者的對手有45.4%的出手來自這個區域，這是聯盟
第5高的數字，不過比他們高的這4支球隊卻都能在防守效率排進Top 5的水準，遠勝於拓
荒者。另外波特蘭針對跳投的防守也很到位，成功對位干擾的比例排在聯盟前10名。
(http://leelou.pixnet.net/blog/post/32049455 第一個表格)
可是他們的對手在這個區域的投籃命中率是41%，排名全聯盟第4高。
Whether that’s a case of bad luck or because they don’t really contest that
well, that’s still just 0.82 points per attempt, which is fine defensively.
The Blazers also rank 11th in 3-point defense and second in defending the
restricted area.
So, in terms of defending shots, the Blazers do a pretty good job, despite
the Aldridge pick-and-roll issue. They rank seventh in opponent effective
field goal percentage. But they rank 19th in defensive efficiency, mostly
because they force the fewest turnovers in the league, just 12.3 per 100
possessions. And they force only 11.3 with their starting lineup on the floor.
不論原因是運氣不好或者是他們防守對位時的壓迫不足，這些沒有效率的投籃也不過就造
成平均每次出手0.82分的傷害而已，即使排名不佳也算的上是不錯的防守了。另外拓荒者
在三分線上的防守排名第11，在籃框下的防守排名第2。
因此就防守投籃的部份來說，拓荒者做得還算不賴，即使Aldridge在面對擋拆時有點問題
。他們壓制對手的eFG%可以排到第7名，但是回到整體防守效率(DefRtg%)時就只有第19名
了，最主要的原因便是他們迫使對方失誤的能力在聯盟中殿底，每100次攻勢中僅有12.3
次而已，先發五人更是低到11.3次。
In part, that goes back to their pick-and-roll defense. Not only do the bigs
drop back (which means that ball-handlers don’t have to pick up their
dribble and make a pass as often), but the guards (especially Damian Lillard
and Wesley Matthews) don’t apply much pressure up front and can get caught
on those screens. No Blazer ranks in the top 80 in steals per game.
Still, the Blazers are OK when Lopez defends pick-and-rolls. And it may be
that his ability to stop the ball-handler and stay in contact with the roll
man that allows his teammates to better defend their own guys. If Aldridge is
a step slower, that can have a domino effect two or three passes away.
某種程度上來說，還是得回到pick-and-roll的防守來分析。不只是大個子沉退的策略有
問題(這表示持球者不需要常常停球以及傳球)，同時也因為後衛(特別是Damian Lillard
和Wesley Matthews)很少上前對持球者施加壓力，還很容易被掩護者所阻擋。因此反應在
抄截的數據上，排行榜前80名完全沒有拓荒者的球員。
然而當Lopez在防守擋拆時，拓荒者的表現還算是及格，這可能是由於他能夠在阻止持球
者的同時，不忘回頭找到空切的掩護者，這使得他的隊友更容易守住自己負責的人。反之
若是Aldridge的補防腳步慢了，兩到三個傳球後防線將會如骨牌效應般被瓦解。
Trending up?
The Blazers actually have the No. 1 defense since the All-Star break. That
number has been schedule-aided though, as they’ve played the Jazz, Lakers,
Hawks, and two games against the depleted Nuggets. It also may have been
aided by Aldridge’s absence in the first five post-break games, as they
found some defensive success playing smaller and quicker.
Aldridge is back and we’re going to find out if the Portland defense is
really improved over the next 10 days, when five of their six games are
against teams that rank in the top 12 offensively (and the other is against
the improved Grizzlies).
A five-game trip begins against the fourth-ranked Dallas offense on Friday
and we’ll see how well Aldridge contests Nowitzki.
拓荒者的防守會反轉向上嗎?
他們在全明星賽後防守效率高居第一名，這多少得利於賽程的安排，這幾場他們的對手包
括爵士、湖人、老鷹以及兩度對上無力的金塊。另一個原因可能是Aldridge缺席了全明星
賽後的前5場比賽，使用較小且較快的陣容讓他們的防守更成功。
現在Aldridge回來了，我們可以在接下來的10天持續觀察拓荒者的防守是否真的有進步，
這10天中他們對陣的6支球隊中有5支是進攻效率前12名的隊伍(另外1支則是進步中的灰熊
)。
5場客場之旅從星期五對戰進攻排名第4的小牛開始，我們將能檢視Aldridge可以把
Nowitzki守到什麼程度。