原文網址: https://goo.gl/kAXNSH
原文標題:Is LaMarcus Aldridge Really Worth All the Trouble?
LaMarcus Aldridge is the top free agent who might actually switch teams.
More than one team has traded off major contributors to acquire him without
getting any commitment first, and the Los Angeles Lakers seem desperate to
land him. And this all raises a question worth asking: Is he worth it?
Aldridge是今年自由市場上最大牌的自由球員.
許多球隊都為了得到他而交易掉隊中的主力以清出薪資空間,
即使他並沒對它們作出任何承諾,而湖人就是其中一隊想抓大魚的.
那麼問題來了: 他真的值得嗎?
There are certainly reasons to believe he is. He averaged 23.4 points and
10.2 rebounds last season. The only other players to hit those marks in the
last five years are Anthony Davis, Kevin Love and DeMarcus Cousins, per
Basketball-Reference.com.
有許多原因足以說服我們, 他的確值得.
他在上個賽季平均獲得23.4分, 10.2籃板, 近5年來, 只有AD, Kevin Love
還有表弟達成過這個成就.
He also began to shoot more threes and made 35.2 percent of his triples,
which dwindles the above list down to just Love. A power forward who can
stretch the court and rebound is certainly an asset to be valued as the
league leans more and more in that direction.
如果再加上35.2%三分球命中率的條件, 上面的名單就扣剩Keven Love一人.
一個可以拉開空間, 同時又有籃板的PF, 絕對是值得考慮的因素,
因為現在的NBA已經越來越傾向外線投籃.
And, unlike Love, Aldridge doesn’t present a defensive challenge to
compensate for when he’s on the court. Opponents shot 2.1 percent below
their season averages when he was on them, per NBA.com.
同時, Aldridge比Love有優勢的地方是, 他不會在防守端變成負贅.
根據NBA.com, 有他在場上時, 對手的命中率會比平常下降2.1%.
Aldridge certainly is a nice piece to have on a championship caliber team,
but does that mean he’s a game changer? Is he worth the sacrifice some teams
are making? When you start looking at the advanced numbers, he’s not quite
as impressive.
Aldridge絕對是奪冠的一塊拼圖, 但這就表示說他是一個game changer嗎?
他真的值得讓那些球隊犧牲這麼多以得到他?
當你往進階數據看的時候, 就變得不那麼有說服力.
Of players qualifying for the minutes per game leaderboard, his 22.8 player
efficiency rating was eighth, last season. His 8.6 win shares ranked just
21st. His box plus-minus was .3, only good for 105th. His Real Plus-Minus was
4.06, ranking 25th, per ESPN.com. Among players who averaged 20 minutes and
played 40 games, his Player Impact Estimate was tied for 11th. His 1108.2
Floor Impact Counter at RealGM.com was 13th.
AGG上一季進階數據 分數 排名
Win Shares 8.6 21
PER 22.8 8
RPM 4.06 25
PIE 15.6 11
FIC 1108.2 13
平均排名 15.6
If you disregard his BPM as an anomaly (which it obviously is), his overall
numbers place him as somewhere between the eighth- and 25th-best player in
the league. On average he’s at 15.6.
如果撇開他超弱的Box+/-值(第105名的確是很弱), 他各項數據的排名是8到25之間.
名次平均起來變成第15.6名.
We could argue that those numbers don’t appreciate the “eye test” and that
numbers can be deceiving. Of course, numbers and the eye test aren’t
mutually exclusive either, and the vast majority of the time, the numbers
tell the truth — particularly when most of them are saying the same thing.
你可以反駁說數據並不等於我們所親眼看到的表現, 而且數據可以是騙人的
(感覺好像科迷跟詹迷口水戰時的語氣).
當然, 數據和由眼睛判斷並不互相排斥, 大多數時候, 它們的指標都是一樣的.
And part of the deception is the reputation as a court-stretcher is
overstated. Yes, he shot well enough from behind the three-point line, but he
only actually made 37. And he has just 61 for his entire career. The scoring
average is nice, but he took more two-point attempts than anyone in the
league, and the majority of those came from the less-efficient mid-range area
of the court.
同時, 說他善於拉開空間也是被過分渲染的一點, 因為AGG去年只投中了37個三分球,
而他整個職業生涯也只投中61球三分.
他有很棒的平均得分, 但大多都是靠比較不那麼有得分效率的中距離得來的.
Nor, as his shot chart reveals, is he particularly effective in any area:
他的shot chart也顯示他並沒有任何一個區域是特別有得分效率的.
http://goo.gl/rBPm6y
(其實內線和左邊底角三分蠻強的, 就是出手數太少)
So it’s a legitimate question: How much is it worth to land a player who isn
’t even in the top 10? Bear in mind, this isn’t taking a swipe at Aldridge.
He’s a very good player, but is he a truly elite player? Is he the type,
nearing 30 years old, who can turn the fortunes of a franchise around?
回到問題的根源: 一個不算聯盟前十的球員到底值得一支球隊付出多少以得到他?
這不是在貶低Aldridge, 他是一個非常好的球員, 問題是, 他真的是最頂尖的球星嗎?
他是不是那種就算到了30歲還是有能力把一支球隊的命運扭轉的球員?
Whether he’s worth it or not may come down to what the team has to offer
around him. In a case like the San Antonio Spurs, where there’s enough in
place to form a solid structure beneath his feet, I think it’s a bold, but
smart move. However, with some of the other teams hoping to land him as the
cornerstone of a rebuilding project, I don’t think he has that kind of
talent.
其實他值不值得這個價還得看是哪一支球隊想得到他.
像對馬刺隊來說, 我就認為是個大膽而值得的投資, 因為馬刺隊形跟AGG真的很合.
至於其他球隊, 我並不認為AGG有獨力改變他們命運的天賦.
He’s not a LeBron James-type figure who can join any team in the league and
instantly make them a contender. He can be a difference-maker, but only in
the right situation. However, when it comes to free agency, there’s always
an extra value to being the best player available. It causes perceptions and
value to inflate.
他並不是像LBJ那種加入哪支球隊, 那支球隊就立刻變頂級強權的球員.
他也許有這個能力, 但是只有在特定環境底下才能夠成立.
然而, 在自由市場上最好的球員通常都會獲得溢價的.
Some teams will regret what they gave up to land him if they miss out, but if
he doesn’t make the “right” choice, the winner might have buyer’s remorse
as well.
有些球隊也許會因為不做任何動作去得到AGG而感到後悔.
但是, 如果AGG沒有作出正確的選擇, 不適合卻因此得到他的球隊也會懊惱不己.
心得:
簡短翻譯, AGG不是萬用插頭, 那些有心臟病結果還要去買這盒糖尿病藥的請後果自負.