※ [本文轉錄自 PACERS 看板 #1MKx9gu8 ]
作者: k960674 (Kaul) 看板: PACERS
標題: [外絮] Monta Ellis真的是個不好的防守者嗎？
時間: Tue Nov 24 08:42:15 2015
http://goo.gl/WhdSSE
Is Monta Ellis Still a Bad Defensive Player?
A quick google search of “Monta Ellis Bad Defender” will turn up a host of
interesting web pages. The very first link sends you to 2014’s annual
feature by Tim Kawakami naming the “All NBA No-Defense Teams” in which
Monta lands an “Honorable Mention” spot on the dubious squad. The second
link finds you reading a fascinating rebuttal on NBA Reddit titled, “Why do
people think Monta Ellis is a terrible defender?”
稍微google一下"Monta Ellis Bad Defender"這個關鍵字會出現很多有趣的網頁。第一個
連結是Tim Kawakami在2014年所寫，命名為「NBA不防守第一隊」的文章，而Monta則是其
中可有可無的「榮譽提名」。第二個連結則是NBA Reddit的網站，標題為「為何人們認為
Monta Ellis防守很爛？」的文章，會讓你覺得讀了個有趣的反論。
Both posts are mostly reliant on the good old fashioned “eye test” with a
few hard-to-contextualize stats thrown in, supposedly offering some measure
of argumentative support. Kawakami notes that in 2014, the 37-year-old Vince
Carter was statistically better defensively than Monta Ellis. The blogger on
NBA Reddit argued that according to the NBA’s Player Tracking stats, Ellis
was an above average defensive player in every single defensive metric he
qualified for except for hand-offs and off-screen defense.
兩篇文章都按照老派「眼見為憑」的作風，再附上一些難以捉摸實際其況的數據，試圖用
以支持他們的立論。Kawakami提到在2014年，37歲的Vince Carter在數據上是個比Monta
Ellis更好的防守者。而NBA Reddit的作者則是反擊根據NBA球員的追蹤數據，Ellis在防
守端撇開防守無球者以及穿越掩護者的狀況下是個高於平均水準的球員。
The thread underneath led to perhaps one of my favorite NBA Reddit comments
ever by some Mavericks fan named sbeaty:
下面的引文來自某位名為sbeaty的小牛球迷在NBA Reddit所發表，是我最喜歡的評論：
I love Monta and I will admit he he isn’t AS BAD as people think or say on
defense. That being said Monta goes rogue way [too] much. He constantly runs
to where the [ball] is or goes for steals. He throws off the defense and
[puts] us into bad rotations.
Monta reminds me of an A.D.D kid chasing a butterfly. He wants that butterfly
so damn much.
Go get your butterfly Monta!
我喜歡Monta而且我認為他在防守端並不是人們所想或是所說的那麼差。然而，Monta太會
製造麻煩了。他常常追著球跑或是動不動就去抄球。他有時會把防守丟在一旁然後讓我們
陷於不利的情況。
Monta讓我聯想到一個過動症的小孩追著蝴蝶的樣子。他就是超級無敵想抓到那隻蝴蝶。
去抓蝴蝶吧Monta！
Evaluating an individual player’s defense solely through statistics is
imperfect at best. Obviously, a simple look at steals and blocks will tell
very little. Even the advanced individual defensive stats are incredibly hard
to quantify. Defensive win shares, Defensive Rating, and Defensive Box
Plus/Minus all tell us some interesting things, and a quick look at the
league leaders in those categories reveal that they have to at least be doing
something right, but it’s hard to really define what those numbers actually
mean. Player tracking data is useful, especially for evaluating how well big
men protect the rim, but even SportVu has flaws – namely that it can’t
really contextualize whether a player is competing against starters, bench
players, or mop up guys.
單憑數據要衡量一名球員的防守再怎麼樣都是不完美的。很顯然地，只看抄截和阻攻並不
能代表什麼。甚至是個人防守的進階數據也十分難以評斷。Defensive win shares、
Defensive Rating和Defensive Box Plus/Minus都讓我們知道了一些有趣的東西，而掃一
下在這些數據上的聯盟領先者則是告訴我們這些人至少做了一些「對的事情」。但這並不
能解釋這些數據的實際意義。球員的追蹤數據很有用，特別是去衡量一個長人是否能有效
保護籃框，但即使是SportVu（註：一套動態攝影系統）也有缺陷——它並不能反映球員
的對手到底是對方的先發、替補還是拖地的球僮。
Further, every team employs a specific defensive strategy meant to maximize it
’s overall defensive output. Defensive players that are tasked with
defending the other team’s best player every night will inevitably give up
more points than their teammates. Other guys have larger offensive loads and
are asked by their coaches to conserve some energy on the defensive end.
再者，每支球隊都各有一套策略去讓他們的整體防守發揮到極致。被分配到去守對方最好
球員的防守者無疑會比他的隊友失更多分。教練也會要求其他在進攻端責任更多的球員在
防守端省點力氣。
Indeed, our fearless leader, Jared Wade, had this to say about Individual
Defensive Rating: “I honestly don’t know what individual defensive rating
is. I mean, yeah, I know what it is. I just have never gained a lot of
insight from it. It just doesn’t have context or much real value in and of
itself to me. When someone tells me a guy’s defensive rating, it’s like
saying ‘My house is 9 away from the school.’ 9 what? Miles? Blocks? Houses?
Feet?”
的確，我們大無畏的勇者Jared Wade就對Individual Defensive Rating這數據有話要說
：「老實講我根本不知道individual defensive rating是啥。我的意思是，我知道這是
什麼。只是我從來沒有仔細去研究這東西。對我而言它沒有提供任何上下文或是有其他實
際價值。當某個人告訴我一名球員的defensive rating時，就好像和我說『我家距離學校
有9。』9啥？9英哩、9個街區、9棟房子還是9英呎？」
All of these factors generally lead us to our current, flawed evaluation
process that we employ when judging an individual’s defense:
這些因素會讓我們在我們在判斷一個人的防守時流於一個當前有些許瑕疵的評估過程：
EYE TEST
plus
ONE OR TWO AMBIGUOUS DEFENSIVE METRICS
divided by
GENERAL OVERALL PUBLIC PERCEPTION
equals
“REALITY”
雙眼所見＋一兩個模稜兩可的防守數據÷大部分人的意見＝「實際情況」
Still, most NBA guys can generally differentiate between good and bad
defensive players, and for the entirety of his career, Monta Ellis has
generally been perceived as a bad defensive player. When you don’t get to
watch a player every night, preconceived notions will dominate how you feel
about him when you do get to watch him. Often, these presuppositions are spot
on and helpful, but occasionally, they will lead to Pacers fans wondering, “
Why did I hate Jordan Hill so much?” and “Is Jordan Hill actually a good
player?”
然而，大部分看NBA的人通常都能區分一個防守者的好壞，而Monta Ellis在整個職業生涯
中，一般都被認為是個不好的防守者。當你不是個整天看比賽的人時，先入為主的觀念將
會主導你看一個人比賽時的思路。通常這些推定都八九不離十而且有所助益，但有時候這
會讓溜馬球迷不禁反問自己：「為什麼我這麼討厭Jordan Hill？」或是「Jordan Hill到
底是不是個好球員？」
With the roster turnover in Indiana this season, Pacers fans and writers at 8
points, 9 seconds have been trying to weed through these biases in order to
more objectively reflect the current reality. It has often been said that “
offensive reputations change a year too early because of recency bias and
defensive reputations change two years too late because of confirmation bias.
” This may be more true with Monta Ellis than any other player, because in
2015, Ellis has been a mediocre offensive player (where he’s supposedly
great), but a surprisingly useful and above average defensive player (where he
’s allegedly terrible).
當這季溜馬陣容大翻新的時候，8 points, 9 seconds的球迷和作家們都試著要擺脫這些
偏見，以便更客觀地反映當下的真實情況。常有人說：「因為近因效應會讓我們過早肯定
一個人的進攻，而確認偏差則是會讓我們難以肯定一個人的防守。」這比起其他球員，或
許對Monta Ellis來說再確切不過了，因為今年的Ellis進攻端只是一位普通的球員（而這
應該是他很好的部分），但防守端卻出奇地好用而且超乎一般水準（而這是他被認為糟糕
的部分）。
註：近因效應 http://goo.gl/V8iOGT
確認偏差 http://goo.gl/QOctvZ
In fact, through 12 games, Ellis has a total of 0.6 Defensive Win Shares, a
number that would tie him for 18th in the entire league with Tyson Chandler,
Ian Mahinmi, Eric Bledsoe…and Jared Sullinger. Again, who knows what these
numbers mean? Certainly not me. But it seems at least kind of relevant when
the only shooting guard with more DWS in the entire league is Jimmy Butler,
especially when my eyes tell me that Ellis has been playing very well
defensively for the Pacers.
事實上在打完了12場比賽後，Ellis的Defensive Win Shares高達0.6，這個數字可以讓他
和像是Tyson Chandler、Ian Mahinmi、Eric Bledsoe以及Jared Sullinger等人並列聯盟
第18名。再說一次，誰知道這個數字是幹嘛用的？至少我不知道。但當唯一有比他更高
DWS的得分後衛是Jimmy Butler時，看起來至少有某種程度的關聯，特別是我的眼睛告訴
我Ellis在溜馬的防守端做得非常好。
註：在溜馬以123比86擊敗公鹿的比賽後，Ellis的Defensive Win Shares上升到了0.7，
名列聯盟第15名，與Jimmy Butler相同。
I think trying to determine just how good of a defensive player Monta Ellis
is will always be difficult, but I think one factor that often goes overlooks
is the “Who does this guy play with?” factor.
我覺得試著要判斷Monta Ellis是個多好的防守者永遠不是件簡單的事，不過我想其中一
個經常被忽略的因素是：「他的隊友都是些什麼樣的傢伙？」
For almost the entire first decade of his career, Monta Ellis played for
exciting, uptempo, bad defensive teams. During this time, his backcourt
contemporaries were almost always below average defensive players, or worse.
In all, he never once played for a defense that was in the top half of the
league in overall Defensive Rating.
在Monta Ellis的生涯前十年，他大都是在激情、快節奏但防守不佳的球隊打球。在這些
年裡，他的後場隊友幾乎都是平均水準以下的防守者，甚至更糟。總的而言，他從來沒有
在擁有聯盟前半Defensive Rating的防守下打球過。
Here’s a quick rundown of the teams he played for (while he was a starter)
and his fellow perimeter defensive teammates.
下表列出了他待過的球隊（以先發的身分）以及和他組成後場防守的隊友。
http://goo.gl/0g6vHN
Your eyes may have glazed over by this point, so here’s a quick recap. Over
the course of nine seasons, Monta actually had the best DRtg (among perimeter
players) on his team twice. He was the best defensive guard (exclude the
small forward) five times. Of course, some of these examples would be akin to
remarking that the second Hobbit movie was better than the first — that may
be true, but they’re both terrible — but still, it seems those stats would
mean something.
你可能會覺得「我到底看了啥」，所以這裡來快速歸納一下重點。在整個九年當中，
Monta事實上（在外圍球員當中）有兩次擁有最好的DRtg。他曾有五度在防守端是表現最
好的後衛（撇開小前鋒）。當然這些例子就像你覺得哈比人二代比哈比人一代好看一樣—
—或許如此，但兩個一樣爛，但無論如何，這些數據看起來的確代表了一些事情。
More significantly, the best defensive point guard he ever played with was
probably Baron Davis when Monta was 21 years old. Over the past half decade,
he’s spent time playing next to Brandon Jennings, Jamal Crawford, Jose
Calderon, Rajon Rondo, and a young Stephen Curry.
更重要的是，他搭檔過的控球後衛中防守最好的可能是Baron Davis，那年Monta只有21歲
。在過去五年間，他曾和Brandon Jennings、Jamal Crawford、 Jose Calderon、Rajon
Rondo以及年輕的Stephen Curry搭檔過。
On many of those teams, he was often asked to guard the opponent’s best
perimeter player, all while carrying a pretty hefty load offensively. This
year has been quite different for him. George Hill is an outstanding
defensive player, one of the very best in the league at slowing down opposing
point guards. Paul George is an absolute destroyer on the defensive end,
challenging the opponent’s best scorer night in and night out. Ellis, in
2015, has had the privilege of defending the opponent’s weakest perimeter
player every single night, and he’s actually been quite good in that role.
在這些球隊當中大多時候他都被要求去守對方最好的後場球員，同時也得在進攻端擔負重
任。今年對他而言很不一樣。George Hill是個傑出的防守者，聯盟中能放慢對方控球後
衛最好的球員之一。Paul George無疑是個防守大鎖，整晚緊盯對方最好的得分手。Ellis
在今年擁有只需要防守對方後場最弱球員的特權，而事實上這個角色他扮演地相當不錯。
So what does all of this mean? It’s probably a bit of a reach to argue that
Ellis has always been this good defensively. Players grow. They get better.
They start focusing on the details more than they had in the past. In past
years, Ellis did lose focus on defense to chase a butterfly or a steal too
often. But he also played with some very poor defensive players that
exacerbated his already poor defensive instincts.
所以講了一堆到底想表達什麼？大概是想表達Ellis在防守端「一直」都差不多好。球員
會成長變強，他們會比以往專注於更多細節。在過去幾年，Ellis的確在防守端會恍神跑
去追蝴蝶或是太愛抄球。但同時他也和許多防守不佳的隊友搭檔，惡化了他本身就不好的
防守本能。
It’s possible that Monta’s best years are behind him offensively, but it’s
also possible that he’s starting to come into his own on the other end of
the floor. He has incredible anticipation skills, he fights hard against
larger players, and has made large strides in Indiana’s team defensive
concept. Monta may not have it all, but he has more than enough to be an
above average defensive player for the Indiana Pacers.
或許Monta在進攻上已經不會是最強的一年了，但也或許他會開始在另一端獲得應有的認
同。他有著難以置信的預判能力，面對更高大球員時也很強硬，在溜馬的防守概念下也有
長足的進步。Monta可能還沒進化完全，但他在溜馬陣中早已是名超乎水準的防守球員了
。