來源: The USA Today
網址: https://tinyurl.com/y8wpxphm
What is the peak age in the NBA? Probably 27 years old
NBA球員的巔峰年紀大概是幾歲? 差不多是27歲
Folks around the NBA often debate when players enter their prime and players
around the league will often brag different answers when asked.
有在研究NBA的人常常會在爭論什麼時候球員開始進入他的巔峰時間，而球員被問到這種題
目的時候也會有不一樣的答案。
According to our research department, the average age of an All-NBA player is
27.7 years old. This dates back to the season the award debuted in 1946-47.
In fact, the average age of an All-NBA recipient has been within one year of
that mark in each season for the past 20 years.
根據Hoopshype的研究部門分析，數據顯示NBA最佳隊伍的平均年齡是27.7歲，這資料是可
以回溯到這獎項頒布的第一年1946-47球季。而在過去20年，每一屆NBA最佳隊伍的平均年
齡都落在27.7上下各一年的範圍內。
That’s strikingly similar to a paper published by sports economists David
Berri and Rob Simmons, which suggested that the peak performance of an NBA
player is when they are 26 (via VICE Sports):
這結果也跟之前運動經濟學者David Berri跟Rob Simmons發表的論文結論類似，他們認為
NBA球員的巔峰年季是在26歲。
“[We] looked at the impact various factors have on NBA performance. Aging
was one of those factors, and what we found is that player performance tends
to peak around 26. After that, players start to decline: slowly at first, and
then precipitously.”
「我們去看哪些因子會影響NBA球員的表現，年紀是一個因子，而我們的結果發現球員的表
現會在26歲達到巔峰。而在那之後，球員表現開始衰退，一開始衰退的速度慢，但是後來
就會加快。」
Only twice (1996-97 and the following year in 1997-98) has the average age of
those selected to the All-NBA team exceeded 30 years old. Those seasons were
inflated partially because they were the final two seasons that Michael
Jordan (34) played before coming out of retirement in 2001. They were also
his final two selections in his career.
只有兩次(1996-97以及次年1997-98球季)兩次的NBA最佳隊伍平均年齡超過30歲。那兩次有
部分原因是因為那兩年是Michael Jordan(34歲)退休前打最後打的兩年，雖然在2001年他
又復出。那兩次也是他生涯最後兩次被選為最佳隊伍。
Others older than 30 who received the nod those seasons included: Karl Malone
(34), Hakeem Olajuwon (34), Patrick Ewing (34), John Stockton (34) and Reggie
Miller (32). The 1998-99 season represented a changing of the guard with Kobe
Bryant (20), Kevin Garnett (22), Allen Iverson (23), Antonio McDyess (25),
Jason Kidd (25), Chris Webber (25) all receiving their first All-NBA
recognition.
其他幾位超過30歲被選為最佳隊伍的有：Karl Malone(34)，Hakeem Olajuwon(34)，
Patrick Ewing(34)，John Stockton(34)，以及Reggie Miller(32)。而1998-99球季的最
佳隊伍則是代表後衛群的轉變，有Kobe Bryant(20)，Kevin Garnett(22)，Allen
Iverson(23)，Antonio McDyess(25)，Jason Kidd(25)，Chris Webber(25)，他們都在那
年第一次進入最佳隊伍名單。
Overall, All-NBA selections have come after Age-30 seasons in less than one
quarter (24.0 percent) of the instances. Since 2000-01, the rate has dropped
to just 21.1 percent.
總體來說，NBA最佳隊伍超過30歲的成員大概都少於1/4 (24趴)，而在2000-01球季之後，
這比例更降至21.1趴。
An interesting takeaway is that only a dozen players have ever made an
All-NBA team after turning 35.
一個有趣的小知識: 只有約莫10幾位球員在35歲後還可以被選為NBA最佳隊伍。
Kareem Abdul-Jabaar accomplished it three times while Malone achieved this
feat on three occasions. Tim Duncan, the oldest player to reach All-NBA
status since 1986, is the only other player to be named to All-NBA honors two
times after turning 35.
Kareem Abdul-Jabaar三次，Malone三次，而Tim Duncan則是在1986年後入選NBA最佳陣容
的最老球員，在35歲後入選兩次。
This is particularly fascinating because LeBron James turned 34 years old on
Sunday. While he has shown that the typical aging curve does not impact him
the way it has so many others, it’s also true that he will soon be entering
a point in where few have been considered among the best in the league.
這個現象在星期日LBJ滿34歲就更顯有趣了。雖然他有展現出年紀的影響，但是這影響似乎
沒有像在其他球員身上影響的那麼多，但是他也進入到一個普遍認為不會是在巔峰期間的
年紀區間了。
Players including Bryant, Jordan, Ewing, Dominique Wilkins and David Robinson
all earned their final All-NBA nods when they were 34.
像是Bryant，Jordan，Ewing，Dominique Wilkins跟David Robinson都在34歲拿到他們最
後一次NBA最佳隊伍榮譽。
For all intents and purposes, the Los Angeles Lakers superstar is once again
an MVP candidate this season. Kevin Pelton recently suggested that James is
defying the undefeated Father Time (via ESPN):
從各方面來看，這位湖人超級明星本季又再次展現MVP候選人的表現，Kevin Pelton最近說
LBJ一點都沒有體力下滑的樣子:
“Even an aging curve with gentle decline like James has experienced so far
during the regular season will typically get steeper (downward) as a player
heads toward his mid-30s. That makes it all the more surprising that instead
of declining sharply, James has instead trended the other direction … [But]
as he reaches his mid-30s, declining athleticism could finally become an
issue for James, particularly if his improved 3-point shooting proves fluky.”
「年紀以及體力衰退像是LBJ目前在正規賽所表現的會隨著球員進入三字頭中段後會更佳明
顯，所以沒看到曲線向下，看到LBJ的曲線似乎跟其他人不一樣更讓人感到驚奇。...但
是，當LBJ進入三字頭中段，體能的衰退最終將會是LBJ得要面臨的課題，尤其是他目前展
現的三分球若只是運氣好。」
It’s worth noting that James reportedly spends an annual $1.5 million taking
care of his body, which has likely improved his career longevity despite the
absurd workload he has had thus far.
值得注意的是，有報導LBJ每年花150萬鎂在保養他的身體，儘管以他目前離譜的工作量，
這很有可能可以幫助他延長他的生涯。
But when signing players to longer-term deals, it’s important to keep in
mind how rare it is for someone to be considered one of the best players as
they get older. As such, it’s no surprise many deals offered to players past
30 are often considered the worst in the NBA.
但是講到球隊給球員長期約，要想到一個球員已經是進入生涯後期但是還是被認為最佳球
員是有多麼少見，也因此，對於NBA球隊若是給年紀超過30歲的球員長約常被認為是爛約也
就不足為奇了。