來源:The Athletic(須付費)
https://theathletic.com/3328595/2022/05/23/nba-draft-combine-analysis/
作者:John Hollinger與Sam Vecenie
The 2022 NBA Draft Combine has come and gone, with the event achieving its
usual goal of kicking off the draft cycle in earnest. John Hollinger was on
the ground in Chicago, and Sam Vecenie worked the phone lines from afar, each
tirelessly drinking coffee and gaining intel from the event. Here’s what
they learned:
2022年NBA選秀聯合試訓已經結束並圓滿落幕了。John Hollinger也出席了芝加哥的這個活
動,Sam Vecenie則不在現場透過電話努力工作,兩個人以靠著大量的咖啡不眠不休地蒐集情
報。這些是他們所獲取的消息:
How do we make the combine more valuable for attendees?
The first thing everyone talks about at the combine is how to make it better.
To its credit, the league has made some progress, encouraging five-on-five
participation, streamlining the “agent workouts” (more on these in a
minute) and tweaking the event’s timing so that only four teams are still
playing when it happens.
That said, what do you think is going to happen when a couple hundred people
get together to talk shop? As ever, the gripes were abundant:
我們如何使聯合試訓對於參加者來說更有價值?
大家討論聯合試訓的第一件事就是我們如何使它更好。為了公信力,聯盟是有做一些調整,
鼓勵更多的5v5參與,精簡化了"經紀人體測"(一分鐘後會談到更多)並調整活動的流程所以
只會有四隊同時打球。
你覺得當幾百人聚在了一起談論這些公事會發生甚麼?如同過往,抱怨還是很多的:
A continuing bug in the program is getting the top-ranked players to
participate. While no sane person thinks a potential top-five pick will
actually play basketball here, the reluctance of many prospects to submit to
health and medical examinations has been a sore spot. The league can’t
compel players who are not yet part of the NBA to participate in such tests,
but one wonders if it could create a workaround in the next CBA. For
instance, requiring players who want to enter the draft early to submit to
health and medical exams at the combine would effectively eliminate the
problem.
第一個一直以來都有的問題是沒辦法讓那些最頂尖的球員參加聯合試訓。不過不會有理智
的人會認為一個可能是前五順位的球員會真的去聯合試訓打球,這些球員對於參與健康與醫
療測試的意願低迷才是痛點。聯盟至今仍然無法強制要求還不是NBA一份子的球員參與這些
測試,但大家都在思考能不能在下一次CBA中達成這一個部分。舉例來說,要求想要提早參加
NBA選秀的球員在聯合體測時繳交一份健康與醫療測試會很有效的解決這個問題。
A more maddening issue has been players’ unwillingness to participate in the
five-on-five portion of the combine, even if they probably should to improve
their draft stock. In a way, this mechanism could end up being
self-correcting. Several players moved up teams’ boards in 2021 partly as a
result of playing in Chicago, including a few who vaulted into the first
round (notably 12th pick Joshua Primo, 24th pick Josh Christopher and 25th
pick Quentin Grimes).
另外一個令人抓狂的問題是不少球員對於參與5v5對抗的意願非常低落,即使是在參加後非
常有可能提高他們選秀行情的情況下。在某種程度下,這個機制可以很好的讓球員自我修
正。有些球員在2021因為他們在5v5對抗的好表現進入了球隊們的眼簾,這其中包含了幾個
成功殺入第一輪的球員(最著名的有第12順位的Joshua Primo,24順位的Josh Christopher
及25順位的Quentin Grimes。)
With this year’s solid play of Santa Clara’s Jalen Williams and some others
foreboding the same (more on that below), one wonders if agents will stop
overplaying their hands. Several players who either stood pretty firmly in
second-round territory (Marquette’s Justin Lewis, Duke’s Wendell Moore) or
had little to lose by playing five-on-five (G League Ignite’s Jaden Hardy,
Milwaukee’s Patrick Baldwin, Michigan State’s Max Christie) nonetheless sat
out that portion. Amusingly, NC State’s Terquavion Smith pulled out of the
second day of games after “proving” himself with a 6-for-17 shooting
performance in the first one.
在今年聖塔克拉拉大學的Jalen Williams及一些其他人打出身價之後(等一下會提),開始有
人思考是否能阻止經紀人們的過度插手操作。有些看起來穩穩地只會在第二輪的球員(馬奎
特的Justin Louis,杜克的Wendell Moore)及即使打5v5也沒什麼能失去的球員(G League的
Jaden Hardy,密爾瓦基的Patrick Baldwin,密西根州大的Max Christie)仍然決定不參與那
個部分。更有趣的是,北卡州大的Terquavion Smith在第一場用17投6中的表現"證明"了自
己的實力以後退出了第二天的試訓。
The so-called pro days or “agent workouts” arranged by agent groups
continue to be a leading source of griping from front office personnel. These
are little more than shows run by the agents to showcase their clients
running and dunking, and definitely not playing basketball against another
human being. The general opinion was that they were near-worthless as a
player-evaluation tool and incredibly time-consuming at a time when execs don
’t have a ton of free hours.
被稱為職業日或是"經紀人體測"(因為常常是經紀人團隊舉辦)的測試持續地遭受很多制服
組人員的抱怨。因為這些與其說是經紀人的客戶們展現自己的舞台,不如說只是經紀人安排
的一場秀,而且絕對不會與任何人類有籃球對抗。大家有一個共識就是這些Showcase對於球
員評價幾乎是毫無價值且對於忙碌的管理層來說浪費時間(註:曾凡博就是退出了聯合試訓
並只參與經紀人舉辦的Showcase。)
Nonetheless, team reps felt obligated to attend because everyone else was
going, and because they didn’t want to insult the agents. Everyone admits it
’s mostly fake hustle, but in some cases, there is real value for team execs
who haven’t been on the road as much. If they haven’t seen a prospect in
the flesh yet, this can be their best chance to get eyes on a first-round
prospect they expect to be long gone before they pick. Occasionally, an
agency might roll out a three-on-three that features a couple of interesting
prospects.
即使如此,各隊的代表認為他們還是有義務參與經紀人體測因為其他人都會去且他們不想得
罪經紀人。大家都默認這些Showcase裡面的表現都是虛假的奮鬥,但對某些還沒出過辦公室
的管理層來說還是有一些真實價值。如果他們還沒看過任何一名新秀,這有可能是這些管理
層能獲得一些看看一些距離他們順位很遙遠的新秀的最好機會。正常來說,經紀公司都可能
會安排一場由幾名有趣新秀打的3v3比賽。
While the league at least coordinated to put a bunch of these workouts in
Chicago rather than forcing team execs to travel hither and yon (a few others
are concentrated on Southern California next week), that puts additional
pressure on the week’s already compressed schedule. Staff often had to go
from long days interviewing prospects directly to agent workouts at night.
The most prominent emotion by Friday was exhaustion.
雖然聯盟至少把這些試訓舉辦在了芝加哥並讓管理層不用到處旅行(有一些會在下周聚集在
南加州),但這使該周原本就已經很濃縮的時程表被施予了更多壓力。工作人員常常都要在
早上面試潛力球員並在晚上在趕去參加經紀人展示。在周五時普遍的情緒是滿滿的疲憊。
Intel dump 各種情報
But enough of our whining. What other scuttlebutt emerged from the week in
Chicago?
抱怨夠多了。我們這禮拜在芝加哥還聽到了哪些內線呢?
Orlando winning the lottery could throw a monkey wrench on draft night. While
most draft analysts have Jabari Smith Jr. rated as the top prospect, John
Hollinger Spies think the Magic are leaning toward selecting Chet Holmgren.
Of course, that would play to their type. This front office’s track record
reveals an obsession with length, so one can easily connect the dots there.
樂透的贏家奧蘭多魔術可能會打亂大家的選秀計畫。雖然大部分選秀專家都覺得Jabari
Smith Jr.是本屆最好的潛力,John Hollinger認為魔術傾向選擇Chet Holmgren。當然,
Chet非常符合他們的球風。魔術管理層的歷史紀錄也透露他們對於長人的熱愛,所以大家都
能推敲出來。
On the other hand, some league insiders immediately second-guessed that first
instinct. Are the Magic just playing on their length-based reputation to bait
Oklahoma City into trading up from No. 2? Let the game of smoke signals begin.
同時,有些聯盟內線立刻想到了另一種可能性。有可能其實不是魔術對於長人的熱愛,而是
他們想要迫使奧克拉荷馬雷霆將第二順位向上交易?煙霧戰的號角吹響了。
Most people who spoke with The Athletic expect a lot of trade and player
movement leading up to the draft and beyond. Even in the lottery, we could
see some action. Sacramento has a clear win-now expectation, several front
office members on the last year of their contracts and the fourth pick in the
draft burning a hole in its pocket. One suspects that pick might be in play
in return for some wing help.
大部分跟The Athletic專家聊過的人都預期選秀前與當天將會有很多交易與球員動向。甚
至連樂透區都有可能要操作。沙加緬度國王位於一個Win Now的時間點,幾名合約走到盡頭
的管理層人員及第四順位都使這狀況成為燙手山芋。有些人認為這個選秀權可能會拿去買
側翼上的幫助回來。
The pick that seems even more certain to be on the move is Portland’s at No.
7, with sources saying the Blazers will push to immediately put a competitive
team around Damian Lillard rather than start over. Detroit’s Jerami Grant
has been the hot name here, but the Blazers could look at other options.
另外一個看起來也會被交易的順位是波特蘭拓荒者的第七順位。有內線說拓荒者比起打掉
重練更傾向於圍繞Lillard重整並努力贏球。活塞的Jerami Grant是流言中的一個目標但拓
荒者也有可能尋找其他選項。
We were critical of the Lakers’ decision to not pay a team cash to take
DeAndre Jordan at the trade deadline, but it may pay off at the draft. L.A.
has been open about using its remaining cash stash (the Lakers can put $4.7
million into a trade between now and July 1) to buy its way into the second
round, where the Lakers currently do not have a pick. The Lakers’ scouting
department has built up an impressive track record of finding sleepers late
in the draft, so it will be interesting to see who they might target. (One
other note for the cap nerds: The Lakers still could have done a Jordan trade
and then bought their second-rounder in a pre-arranged trade when the new cap
year’s cash rolls over on July 1; that has been done before, but also would
have impacted their flexibility for 2022-23.)
我們對於湖人交易截止日不想付錢清DeAndre Jordan的操作有諸多批評,不過他的好處可能
在選秀大會上會得到回報。本屆沒有任何選秀權的湖人正在考慮使用剩餘的預算(湖人可以
在7/1之前在交易中投入470萬)來購買一個第二輪選秀權。湖人球探部門對於在第二輪淘寶
有著非常輝煌的紀錄,所以我們會很好奇誰會是湖人的可能目標。(給薪資書呆子的筆記:湖
人仍然可以用預先談好的手段來清掉DAJ並同時用7/1之後的預算買一個二輪;這之前有做過
不過也會影響2022-2023的操作彈性。)
Other teams with multiple picks are expected to try to move up in the draft,
which could make trading down profitable for those picking in the late
lottery and teens. Oklahoma City, for instance, has picks at No. 12 and No.
30 and a surfeit of future picks to sweeten a deal; using those to move up
and nab a targeted player seems like a no-brainer. Other multi-first-rounder
teams to watch include San Antonio (Nos. 9, 20 and 25), Charlotte (Nos. 13
and 15) and Memphis (Nos. 22 and 29). San Antonio, in particular, had a sea
of staff at the combine intently watching the proceedings.
有多個選秀權的球隊會更想向上交易,這可能使得那些目標在選那堆青少年及樂透後段球員
並願意向下球隊的球隊有利可圖。舉例來說,奧克拉荷馬雷霆擁有第12與第30順位以及多個
未來選秀權就可能使得這個操作更加甜美;用這些選秀權來獲取一名相較沒有疑慮的球員。
其他可以關注的多選秀權球隊還有聖安東尼奧馬刺(9 20 25),夏洛特黃蜂(13 15)及灰熊(
22 29)。尤其是馬刺,他們在聯合體測中派出了人員海來密切關注體測過程。
Finally, Oklahoma City’s pick at No. 30 was the topic of other speculation.
Michigan forward Caleb Houstan was notably absent from the week’s
proceedings, with many league insiders suspecting he had a promise from a
team in return for shutting down his draft process. Suspicion immediately
went to the Thunder, given their surplus of picks and long history of making
their draft pick in April. Houstan wouldn’t even be the first Michigan guy
they did this with. (Hello, Mitch McGary!)
最後,雷霆隊的30號籤也是大家談論的一個話題。密西根前鋒Caleb Houston缺席了體測,有
不少消息來源懷疑他已經獲得球隊承諾並答應中止他的選秀行程(註:答應會選,所以也不要
你再打高)。懷疑者立刻將箭頭指向了雷霆,因為他們過往事會在四月就已經給出大量的選
秀決定與承諾。Houstan也不是他們第一個這麼做的密西根球員(哈囉 Mitch McGary!)
A Shaedon Sharpe sighting Shaedon Sharpe觀察
If the NBA Draft has a mystery man within the top 10, it is indeed Sharpe, a
6-foot-5 wing from Canada who committed to Kentucky early this season, got on
campus for the second semester, sat out the season and then declared for the
draft as an early entrant. He is eligible for the draft by nature of having
graduated high school before the 2021-22 NBA season began and by turning 19
before the end of 2022.
如果說本屆選秀前十順位有一個謎團,那絕對是Sharpe。這名這季答應加入肯塔基身高6尺
5吋的加拿大側翼,第二學期才抵達學校並做壁上觀,最後甚至提早宣布投入選秀。他符合選
秀的資格因為他已經從高中畢業並會在2022結束前滿19歲。
Evaluators got a chance to see him go through one of those one-on-zero
workouts on Monday held by his agency. Per the sources in attendance, he ran
through a number of drills put on by trainers and got a chance to show off
some of his shot-making ability and leaping. Still, the main takeaway from
evaluators and decision-makers who spoke with The Athletic was essentially, “
What did we actually learn here?”
評價者在他的經紀人舉辦的單人Workout才得到機會一窺他的廬山真面目。從參與者的消息
來源表示,他進行了數個有訓練員參與的訓練並展示了他的投射技巧與跳高。依然,我們從
評價者與決策者得到最主要的扣分是"他們從那邊得知了甚麼?"
As mentioned above, that is a typical takeaway from evaluators sitting
through these types of workouts. But it felt a bit more pronounced with Sharpe
’s for a few reasons, including the absence of valuable game film on him. A
lot of what came through from sources was that absolutely nothing was done at
game speed, with most of the drills in terms of his handle being executed
more slowly than what he’ll face on an NBA court. He didn’t do anything
complex. For a player who few have actually seen at high-level game speed
much, the workout didn’t provide any insight into the actual questions to
which decision-makers would like some semblance of an answer before
potentially selecting him on draft night. It was a prime example of why these
pro days can be so frustrating.
如同我前面說的,經紀人所舉辦的Showcase對於評價者來說本身就是個扣分。但Sharpe得到
扣分的多項理由更多,其中包含了他不存在的實戰影片。關於Sharpe的情報都不是在比賽的
節奏下取得,在他控制下的訓練中他所做做的比他會在NBA賽場上面對的要慢上許多。他也
沒做任何複雜的事。對於一名沒有面對過任何高強度比賽速度的球員來說,他的workout並
沒有回答到選秀會決策者對於他的疑慮。這也是一個案例說明為甚麼這些經紀人showcase
如此令人感到沮喪。
This shouldn’t be mistaken for saying that Sharpe performed poorly. Those in
attendance said he looked very bouncy, and his in-person length impressed
those who were seeing him for the first time. He didn’t burn the net down or
anything with his shooting, but hit enough shots off the catch and his own
dribble — particularly stepbacks and side-steps — to showcase his long-term
potential. But no one is going to be rushing to the podium based on Monday’s
workout.
這不能與Sharpe的表現混為一談。參與Showcase的人說他看起來非常的會跳且身長對於第
一次看到他的人來說非常出色。他雖然沒有展示出火燙的手感或是甚麼投射能力,但他有展
現出足夠的接球後投射與自己運球後投射的能力