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Ranking the Most Overrated NBA Players
NBA最過譽球員排行榜
GRANT HUGHES
JULY 27, 2023
5. DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls
There aren't many players you'd trust more than DeMar DeRozan to create a good s
coring chance from a one-on-one standstill matchup. His bag is deep, his footwor
k in the mid-post impeccable and his foul-drawing craft second to none.
當你需要有人進行單打時,很少球員能得到比DDR更多的信任。他的技巧優秀、中距離的腳
步精確,吸引犯規的能力更是無與倫比。
That's why DeRozan has ranked in the 88th percentile or better in isolation scor
ing efficiency across each of the last four seasons. A six-time All-Star, he own
s a career average of 21.0 points per game.
這就是為什麼DDR能在過去四個賽季裡都擁有超過聯盟88%或更高的單打得分效率的原因。他
是6次全明星而且生涯場均21分。
And yet, he was an easy inclusion on our list because DeRozan's individual bucke
t-getting prowess has led to precious little team success and comes with a level
of defensive ineptitude that basically cancels out (at best) the value he provi
des as a scorer. Throw in a career-long reluctance to work off the ball or shoot
threes, and DeRozan has essentially pigeonholed himself as a high-usage weapon
who limits his team's offensive ceiling and can't scale down into a supporting r
ole because he doesn't contribute enough in other areas.
但是他之所以輕鬆的進入這份名單是因為DDR的個人得分能力為團隊成功的貢獻微乎其微,
而且他糟糕的防守基本上抵銷了他作為得分手提供的價值。再加上他職業生涯一直不願意去
改善他的無球跟三分球,這限制他自己只能作為高使用率的得分手而且無法轉變成輔助型角
色,因為他在其他方面的貢獻不足。
In 11 of his first 12 seasons, DeRozan's teams had higher net ratings with him o
ff the floor than on. Though his Chicago Bulls have played better with him in th
e game than out over the last two years, the defensive issues have persisted, an
d the friction between him and Zach LaVine is a direct result of DeRozan's inabi
lity to help when he's not operating as a first option.
在他生涯的前12個賽季中,DDR的球隊有11賽季在他沒上場時有著更高的淨效率值。儘管他
在公牛的過去兩年間,他在場時比他離場時表現更好,但他防守的問題仍然存在,而他和La
Vine間的矛盾在於,DDR若非作為球隊的頭號進攻選擇他就很難幫助球隊
Limited in key ways and tricky to integrate into a team concept, DeRozan is an e
lite individual scorer who has yet to prove he can do enough in other areas to d
rive success.
受限於此,DDR很難融入球隊的戰術,他是一名優秀的個人得分手,但他尚未證明自己在其
他方面能夠做出足夠的貢獻來推動球隊取得成功。
4. Kawhi Leonard, LA Clippers
Hypothetically, if you were drafting individual players as the first pieces of a
title-chasing roster *and were guaranteed full health*, Kawhi Leonard would pro
bably come off the board somewhere in the top 10. Maybe even the top five.
假設你正在為一支追求總冠軍的球隊挑選球員,並且能保證他身體狀況完好,可愛可能會在
名單中排名前十,甚至前五。
Unfortunately, that asterisked caveat about health doesn't exist in the real wor
ld, and we can't ignore it in evaluating Leonard.
None of this is his fault, but the two-time champ, two-time Defensive Player of
the Year and two-time Finals MVP simply cannot summon his best self over a full
season anymore. He's played 60 games or fewer every year since 2016-17 and has b
owed out of his last two postseasons early with significant knee injuries that r
equired surgery.
不幸的是,在現實世界中並不存在這種保證身體狀況完好的情況,我們不能忽視這一點來評
估可愛。
這並不是他的錯,但這位兩次冠軍得主、兩次年度最佳防守球員和兩次總決賽最有價值球員
已經不能在整個賽季中展現最佳狀態。自2016-17賽季以來,他每年只打了60場比賽或更少
,並且在過去兩個季後賽中因膝蓋重傷而提前退場,需要動手術。
Now 32 and toting a health history that suggests 30-plus missed games should be
the minimum expectation, Leonard doesn't belong among the league's elite unless
you're talking on a per-minute basis.
Load management is guaranteed to limit him from October to April, and that's bou
nd to hurt his team's playoff seeding. And now that we know even the most carefu
l treatment during the year won't keep Leonard from breaking down in the playoff
s, it's hard to believe it's even possible to have him at his best when it matte
rs most.
現年32歲的可愛帶著一份傷病史,表明他缺席30場以上的比賽是最低期望值。
在整個10月至4月的例行賽中,可愛都必須進行負荷管理,這勢必會影響他所在球隊的季後
賽種子排名。而且現在我們知道,即使在整個賽季中進行最謹慎的治療,也無法阻止可愛在
季後賽中受傷,
很難相信他能在最重要的時刻達到最佳狀態。
A great player for 50 games spread across several months is nothing to sneeze at
. But Leonard's unavailability is now his defining feature. Sad as that is, we n
eed to recognize he's no longer at home in the league's top superstar tier.
一個優秀的球員在幾個月裡只打 50 場比賽,這沒什麼好奇怪的。但可愛的無法出賽現在成
了他的顯著特徵。儘管這很可悲,但我們必須認識到,他已經不再是聯盟頂級巨星的一員了
。
3. Jonas Valanciunas, New Orleans Pelicans
Given the rise of better stats, we should be smart enough to know that a center
averaging a double-double doesn't mean what we used to think it did. For example
, we now understand that the best big men can survive defensively in space, lowe
r the accuracy (and even attempt rates) on opponent shots around the rim and gen
erally do more than take up room in the lane.
鑒於進階數據的興起,我們應該聰明地知道,一名場均得分籃板雙位數的中鋒並不意味著像
我們以前認為的那樣好。例如,我們現在明白,最好的大個子在防守時能夠在對手拉開空間
時生存,降低對手在籃下的投籃準確率(甚至是出手次數),並且通常不僅僅在禁區占位置
而已。
Jonas Valanciunas looks like a star if viewed through a 1996 lens. But his 2022-
23 averages of 14.1 points and 10.2 rebounds on 54.7 percent shooting don't hold
up from a modern perspective.
假如回到1996年,大V看起來會像一個明星球員。但從現代的角度來看,他在2022-23賽季的
場均14.1分和10.2個籃板(命中率54.7%)並不稱得上出色。
New Orleans seemed to value his ability to score on the block last season, and V
alanciunas wound up with the highest post-up frequency in the league. But he onl
y managed .98 points per attempt, which ranked in the 56th percentile. All those
post touches weren't fatal with Zion Williamson out of action, but any team tha
t prizes spacing (which is all of them) and clear driving lanes should never dum
p the rock into Valanciunas, which basically erases his offensive worth.
鵜鶘上賽季似乎很重視他在低位得分的能力,這讓大V成為全聯盟低位進攻頻率最高的球員
。但他每次進攻只能得到0.98分,這只優於56%的球員。當Zion不在場時,這些低位進攻並
不致命,但任何重視空間(幾乎所有球隊都重視)和有明確進攻空間的球隊都不應該把球傳
給大V,這基本上等於削弱了他的進攻價值。
The real trouble is on the other end, where Valanciunas' immobility makes him a
target in pick-and-roll coverage. Unable to switch onto guards, he tends to drop
toward the bucket, which isn't a great alternative. When designated as the prim
ary defender, Valanciunas allowed opponents to shoot 65.3 percent inside six fee
t, the second-worst figure among players who guarded at least 450 shots at close
range.
真正的麻煩在另一面,大V的移動能力使他成為擋拆點名的目標。他無法換防到後衛,通常
會朝籃下沈退,這不是一個很好的選擇。當大V作為防守者時,對手在六英尺以內投籃的命
中率達到65.3%,這是那些至少對450次近距離投籃進行防守的球員中第二差的數據。
Valanciunas is tough and he competes, but his best skills don't drive winning. A
nd his shortcomings can low-key undercut his team's chances at success.
大V是個堅韌的球員,他競爭意識很強,但他最擅長的技能並不能帶來勝利。而且他的缺點
可能會悄悄削弱他所在球隊的成功機會。
2. Dillon Brooks, Houston Rockets
Dillon Brooks might not have landed here if he'd signed a contract for the mid-l
evel exception or less following his unceremonious dismissal from the Memphis Gr
izzlies. But the Houston Rockets swooped in and outbid everyone in handing the d
efense-first 27-year-old a four-year deal that could be worth up to $90 million
with incentives.
如果狄龍在和灰熊不光彩地分道揚鑣後,以中產或以下的價碼簽約,那麼他可能不會出現在
這裡。但火箭搶先一步和這名以防守為先的27歲球員簽了一份為期四年的合約,這份合約根
據激勵條款的不同可能達到9000萬美元。
That's a lot of money for the player who had the lowest Box Plus/Minus of anyone
who logged at least 2,000 minutes last season.
這對於上賽季至少上場2000分鐘的球員中BPM最低的球員來說是很多錢。
Brooks' value comes entirely on defense, but his contributions on that end have
rarely negated the damage he does offensively. Of the 65 players who attempted a
t least 900 shots last season, Brooks' 49.4 true shooting percentage ranked dead
last.
狄龍的價值完全來自於防守,但他在進攻方面的傷害抵銷了他防守的貢獻。在上賽季裡至少
出手投籃900次的65名球員中,布魯克斯的真實命中率僅為49.4%,倒數第一名。
There's a strong case to be made that Brooks was the single most damaging offens
ive player in the league last season, and it's not like he's been much better in
the past. He's never once posted a true shooting percentage within spitting dis
tance of the league average. That level of offensive ineffectiveness is hard to
deal with at any position, but it's particularly damaging on the wing, where mos
t clubs expect to get relatively efficient scoring.
可以明確地說,狄龍上賽季可能是全聯盟進攻最傷害球隊的球員,但這不是說他以前的表現
很好。他從未一次在真實命中率上接近聯盟平均水平。這種程度的進攻效率不論在任何位置
上都是災難,但在側翼球員身上尤其有害,大多數球隊都希望側翼能相對高效的得分。
Add in all the counterproductive bluster and bear-poking that backfired so often
over the last several years, and the Rockets are giving quality-starter money t
o a player who—statistically and according to the Grizzlies' handling of his fr
ee agency—does more harm than good.
綜合以上,再過去幾年中經常適得其反的虛張聲勢和激怒對手的行為,火箭給了這位球員優
質先發級的薪水,但根據數據和灰熊處理他的方式來看,這很明顯是弊大於利。
1. Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings
How is it possible for a three-time All-Star center who just finished a season w
ith averages of 19.1 points, a league-leading 12.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists to b
e overrated?
一名得過三次全明星的中鋒,上賽季場均得到19.1分,聯盟最高的12.3個籃板和7.3次助攻
,怎麼可能被高估呢?
Well, start with the fact that he was essentially outplayed by Kevon Looney in t
he Sacramento Kings' first-round loss to the Golden State Warriors. That series
swung in part on Sabonis' inability to shoot from the perimeter, put the ball on
the floor in space or defend the rim. Those three shortcomings mattered far les
s during the regular season, when opponents didn't study up and force the Kings
center out of his comfort zone.
首先,他在國王對勇士的系列賽敗仗中被魯尼打得幾乎毫無還手之力。這個系列賽的天秤倒
向勇士的原因之一就是小沙無法投外線、自行持球進攻或護框。在例行賽季時這三個缺陷的
影響要小得多,因為對手並沒有研究並迫使小沙離開他的舒適區。
Sabonis is an immensely gifted offensive player, but he's also limited. For a Ki
ngs team that is now concerned with succeeding in the playoffs, those limitation
s are meaningful. If he can't shore up his specific and obviously exploitable we
aknesses, Sabonis will struggle to be a factor in the postseason games Sacrament
o wants to win. The Warriors provided the book on how to marginalize Sabonis, an
d future playoff opponents will have read it carefully.
小沙在進攻端有著極高的天賦,但限制也很多。對於一支如今關注在季後賽中取得成功的國
王隊來說,這些限制是很關鍵的。如果小沙無法彌補自己明顯易被利用的弱點,他將很難在
國王希望贏得的季后賽中發揮作用。勇士隊提供了如何將小沙邊緣化的書籍,未來的季后賽
對手也會仔細閱讀。
Compounding matters, the Kings handed Sabonis a contract extension that'll pay h
im $217 million over the next five years. That's max-level cash for a player who
se postseason minutes against Golden State coincided with a minus-9.5 net rating
.
An effective regular-season weapon who had a great deal to do with the Kings' 20
22-23 leap, Sabonis comes with too many conspicuous failings to warrant his star
reputation and salary.
更糟糕的是,國王隊給了小沙一份5年2.17億美元的續約合同,也就是給予季後賽對陣勇士
隊時淨效率場均為負 9.5 分的球員一份頂薪合約,小沙在例行賽能幫助球隊很多,他在國
王隊的2022-23賽季的進步中有很大功勞,但他的明顯缺點太多,無法證明他值得明星級球
員的聲譽和薪水。
心得:DDR跟可愛一起上榜,不過我翻這篇最主要是因為我很認同大V過譽這點,之前看到有
個台灣YT狂吹他…但他真的很難用,之前板上也不少人吹他,但數據冷冰冰,尤其他跟Zion
超級無敵不搭,鵜鶘絕對需要送走其中一人