分享蔡董借我的一本書，
『像做事業一樣地玩撲克』
第一章
『這是一個技術的遊戲，並非運氣。』
有人可能會覺得在麻將社板發這種文章，是不是要宣傳撲克？我先澄清並不是如此。
過去我同樣曾分享撲克文章，是希望各位愛好麻將的朋友，學習麻將的朋友，以正確
的心態學習。
那些撲克的玩家以做學問、做事業的態度去打撲克。
而麻將與撲克有許多相似之處，它們都屬於有「機會」及「技術」的遊戲。
從這些高手的想法中，我們或許可以比較一下，該以何種方式看待麻將。
共勉之。
Treat Your Poker Like a Business.
A wise and inspiring guide to turning a hobby into a empire.
Dusty Schmidt
Chapter 1
A GAME OF SKILL, NOT LUCK
For someone known as a professional gambler, I have very little
gamble in me. About two years into my poker career, I got a
tip that the guarterback in an upcoming college football game
was injured and was not going to play - something that was not
common knowledge. I was in Las Vegas at the time, and laid down
the one and only substantial bet I've ever made on a sporting
of my life, and I was completely disgusted that I'd put myself
through the agony over and outcome I couldn't control.
I ultimately won the bet, but felt as though I'd lost for having laid
the wager in the first place. This event also defined for me the
essential difference between poker and conventional gambling.
Before you dedicate yourself to turning your poker into a
significant income stream, it's important you understand why
being a poker player qualifies as a profession in the first place.
For something to be considered a profession it must contain two
vital components: The game must be beatable, and it must be a
game where skill is the predominant factor.
This question has become more than an academic one in recent
years, as in October 2006, Congress barred the use of credit
cards for online wagers. Horse racing and stock trading were
exempt, but otherwise the new law hit any "game predominantly
subject to chance." Included among such games was poker.
To me, defining poker as a game of skill is actually quite
simple. To do so, you just need to forget about winning at
poker and think for a moment about losing. Is it possible to
intentionally lose a poker game? Yes, of course. But is it possible
to intentionally lose a game like roulette or craps? No,it's not.
In games of chance, the participant cannot control the outcome.
Whether your intent is to win or lose the lottery, your odds
remain the same. The superstitious may disagree, but no matter
how many times you pull the handle on a slot machine, your
odds remain the same each time you put your coins in th slot.
But in poker, your actions can influence the outcome of a hand.
You will absolutely lose if you choose to fold every single hand
no matter what cards you hold. If you call bets with a hand that
cannot win the pot, you will also lose every time. This is the
difference between a game of chance and a game of skill.
It's common knowledge among poker players that chance is a
factor in any given hand, but over many hands poker skill will
even things out, with the more expert players making a profit.
At the higher stakes games I play now, I win approximately 55
percent of the time. If I play 20 tables at once, I expect to show
a profit at 11 and lose at 9. This is a slim profit margin, but a
profit nonetheless If I were playing quarter games, my win-loss
ratio would be about 80-20, meaning that if I played 20 tables,
I could expect to win at 16 of them and lose at 4.
There are some games that are skill games, but are not necessarily
profitable. Take blackjack for example: It is most definitely a
skill game because the outcome can easily be influenced through
your actions. You can lose every single hand to the dealer if you
just keep on hitting until you bust. Conversely, you can play
mathematically perfect blackjack and do much better; however,
the odds are stacked against any person who doesn't count cards,
and the game cannot be beaten in the long run.
In poker, we're competing against other people in what I feel
is the perfect marriage of chance and skill. A poker player
is frequently all in with a card or two to come (and possibly
several more cards to come if there's an agreement to "run it
twice"). There's certainly a rush that comes when you are all in,
especially given the aspect that chance will ultimately dictate in
which direction the chips slide.
But if you're a skilled poker player - or at least more skilled
than the opponents you're facing - you'll more often than not
have a mathematical edge on your opponent because you'll have
a hand or run a high percentage bluff that will that will have a
better chance of winning the pot.
In poker, if you continually make good decisions and risk chips
with the best hand more often than not, skill will be the primary
factor in whether or not you win or lose money. Games of chance
cannot make that claim.