http://goo.gl/BifdLj
By Mike Petriello
Gary Sanchez has a .197 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), the
second-lowest of any qualified hitter this year. That's actually understating
it, to some extent; that .197 mark would be the lowest BABIP of any qualified
Yankees hitter in the last century. It's a big part of why Sanchez is
currently hitting a disappointing .190/.291/.430 after going 0-for-4 in the
Yankees' 2-0 loss to the Mets on Sunday.
Gary Sanchez 今年的BABIP只有.197，在全大聯盟打席足夠的選手中排名倒數第二，保守
一點來說，這可能和上個世紀所有打席足夠的洋基選手比較起來都是最低的，這充分解釋
他在星期天的洋基以0:2輸給大都會的比賽繳出0-4後，三圍只有.190/.291/.430的原因
Because it strips out strikeouts and home runs, BABIP exists to tell the
story of only what happens when the ball is put into play, on only those
plate appearances where a fielder can make an impact. While a batter has a
great deal of control over his own walks, strikeouts and home runs, he has
only partial control over the outcomes of balls in play. As such, BABIP has
long been used to determine good or bad "luck" for those hitters who have
abnormally high or low marks.
由於排除了野手沒碰到球的情形，BABIP長期被用來測定那些成績異常高/低的選手是否
運氣特別的好/壞
Sometimes it tells a story. As in, sometimes a low BABIP really does mean
poor fortune. But it's dangerous to look at a low mark and instantly assume
that's the case, because depending on the situation, a low BABIP can actually
be telling you any number of stories.
有時候他解釋了一些事情，有時候低的BABIP真的代表運氣不好，但光憑這樣就來解釋球員
表現是很危險的。事實上，低BABIP可能代表著更多情形
So what does it mean for Sanchez? And what does it tell us about how the rest
of his season may play out?
所以這對Sanchez有甚麼意義? 這賽季後續他的表現會如何?
Let's look at five possible reasons that he's not finding success when he
puts the ball in play, then explain what the real reason likely is.
我們來看看五個讓他打進球場內的play結果相當不理想的原因，並解釋真的原因會是哪個
1) Maybe he's not hitting the ball hard.
The first thing you think of when you see a low BABIP is simply "lousy
contact." It's nice to avoid strikeouts and put the bat on the ball, but it
doesn't really matter much if it's weak contact. That's what is happening to
Kansas City's Alcides Escobar, for example. He has a .236 BABIP, well below
the Major League average of .294. In his case, it's not likely to be bad
luck, because he has a hard-hit rate of just 24.9 percent, also well below
the league average of 36.3 percent. Poor contact leads to poor outcomes.
1)也許他打出的球不夠強勁
當你看到一個低的BABIP數值時，你會想到"碰球"。他可以避免三振讓你的棒子碰到球，
但並不會有甚麼幫助。這正發生在皇家隊的Escobar身上，.236的BABIP，低於聯盟平均的
.294，這不像是運氣不好，因為他的Hard%(?)只有24.9%，遠低於聯盟平均的36.3%，糟糕
的contact導致糟糕的結果
However, that doesn't seem to be Sanchez's problem. Last year, when he hit
.278/.345/.531 with 33 home runs, he had a 43.1 percent hard-hit rate and a
90.8-mph average exit velocity, both strong marks. While struggling this
year, he has a 41.7 percent hard-hit rate and a 89.8-mph exit velocity. Those
are down from last year, but only slightly, and are still above average. His
hard-hit rate is better than Eric Hosmer or Matt Kemp, just to name a few.
This is mostly not the issue.
然而，這不像是Sanchez的問題，去年他.278/.345/.531，並打出33HR的球季，有著43.1%
的Hard%(?)和90.8-mph的平均擊球初速。兩個數值都相當優秀，而今年這個掙扎的年份中
，他有著41.7%的Hard%和89.8-mph的擊球初速。雖然都比去年低，但沒有低很多，且仍然
在平均之上，比Eric Hosmer或Matt Kemp都還要好，顯然不是主要因素
2) Maybe it's because he's not fast.
Sanchez, a catcher, isn't known for his foot speed. Statcast™ has a metric
called sprint speed, which measures a runner's top speed in feet per second,
and Sanchez ranks 366th of 445 qualified players, or slower than about 82
percent of hitters. As you'd expect, there's some relationship between speed
and BABIP, because fast players can beat out infield hits and slow ones
rarely do.
2)也許他跑太慢
Sanchez是一個捕手，不以腳程出名，Statcast™有一項關於衝刺速度的統計，測量跑者
每秒的最高速度，Sanchez在445位選手中排名366，比82%的人都要慢。跑壘速度確實和
BABIP有一定程度的相關，因為那些快腿更容易讓打進場內的球變成安打
Then again, Sanchez wasn't exactly speedy when he had a .307 BABIP from
2015-17, either. It's probably not this, at least not more than it has ever
been.
然而，在2015-2017的三年中，Sanchez在同樣不是快腿的情況下有著.307的BABIP。
這應該也不是主要原因
3) Maybe he's getting eaten up by the shift.
While the shift may have less impact than we think it does, one thing it does
do effectively is turn likely singles into outs. Obviously, hard-hit balls
that would have been a hit in years past often now turn into outs, thanks to
a well-positioned fielder.
3)也許他被Shift影響了
或許shift沒我們想像中那麼有用，他最有價值的地方在於把可能的一壘安打變成出局數，
很明顯地，在這些野手的良好站位下，許多往年應該變成安打的強勁飛球變成了出局數
Though this mostly affects lefty batters, Sanchez is getting shifted more, 40
percent of the time this year, up from 28 percent last year. But he has a
.269 BABIP against the shift, and a .160 mark when he's not being shifted.
It's probably not this, either.
雖然這大部分影響的對象是左打者，Sanchez卻受到更多的Shift待遇，他今年有40%的打席
受到shift待遇，比去年的28%還高。但他在面對shift時有著.269的BABIP，在沒有shift時
只有.160，顯然也不是這個原因
4) Maybe it's just bad luck.
This is the most popular reason for a low BABIP, and it's often true. We've
all seen poorly hit bloops turn into doubles or crushed line drives find
gloves. That's just the way baseball works, and it's why batting lines and
actual skills don't always have a perfect correlation.
4)也許他就是運氣不好
這是對低BABIP最常見的解釋，而且往往是對的，我們常常看到鳥飛變成二安或是強勁的
平飛球去找手套。這就是棒球，也是為甚麼打擊表現和實際技巧不會完全相關
Just look at how Sunday night's game ended. Sanchez hit a hard line drive,
one that had a 61 percent hit probability (based on exit velocity and launch
angle, but because it was right at third baseman Todd Frazier, it turned into
a game-ending double play.
看看星期天的比賽怎麼結束的，Sanchez打了一個強勁平飛，通常有61%的機率形成安打
(根據擊球初速和角度計算得到)，但卻飛到三壘手Todd Frazier的正面，形成再見雙殺
There's probably a little truth to this. Sanchez's expected BABIP, again
based on likely outcomes of his exit velocity and launch angle, is .265, a
67-point difference from his actual .198 BABIP. Out of 224 hitters with 100
balls in play, that gap is the 17th-largest. Out of 123 right-handed hitters,
it's the fifth-largest gap. It's probably fair to say that some of Sanchez's
issues are hard-hit balls hit right to waiting gloves.
也許這解釋了一部分問題，根據他擊球初速的角度做的計算，Sanchez被預期的BABIP是
.265，比實際的.198高了0.067，在224名超過100個play的選手中，這個差距排名第17，
在123名右打者中排名第5，也許我們可以公平的說，Sanchez打了許多強勁的飛球給了在
那邊等待的手套
5) Maybe the BABIP is skewed because it doesn't count homers.
Sometimes, BABIP doesn't mean what you think it does at all. If you take the
"in play" aspect to an extreme, the second-lowest BABIP in Yankees history
belongs to Roger Maris (.209) in his historic 61-homer 1961 season. It can be
hard to put up a good batting average on balls in play when your 61 best hits
don't count as "in play." It's probably not this, either. But it's worth
noting, because Sanchez does have 12 homers, tied for the most of any catcher.
5)也許是因為BABIP受到HR的影響而被曲解了
有時候，BABIP並不像你想的那樣，如果你只看打進場內的結果，洋基史上第二低的BABIP
是由Roger Maris打出來的，在那1961年，他打了61支全壘打。把他最好的61次打擊結果
排除掉後，你很難讓這名打者有著良好的數據。雖然也許不是這個，但卻值得注意，今年
Sanchez打了12轟，不輸給任何一個捕手
So it's not any of that, at least not as a primary factor. So what is it?
What's happening with Sanchez?
看起來這也不是主要因素，所以Sanchez身上發生的甚麼
Well, it might be simple. When Sanchez hits the ball in the air, he does it
very well. When he hits it on the ground, he does it worse than almost anyone.
好吧，這或許很簡單，當Sanchez把球往天上打時，他打得非常好。當他往地上打時，他
幾乎比任何人都爛
There have been 232 players who have hit at least 50 fly balls and line
drives this year, and on those balls, Sanchez has been elite. He has a
98.7-mph exit velocity, which ranks fourth behind Joey Gallo, Giancarlo
Stanton and J.D. Martinez. On those non-homer batted balls in play, he has a
.412 BABIP, a little above the league average (.398).
今年有232名至少打出50個飛球和平飛球的選手，在這些人中Sanchez的表現相當優秀，
有著98.7-mph的擊球初速，排名第4，只輸給Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton 和JD
Martinez。在那些沒打成HR的球中，他的BABIP是.412，略高於聯盟平均的.398
Meanwhile, there have been 199 players with at least 50 ground balls. On
those, Sanchez has been mediocre. His exit velocity is 84.5 mph, which is
137th, or lower than about two-thirds of players, including noted
non-sluggers Orlando Arcia and Ian Desmond. His BABIP on grounders is .082,
which is 199th. That's the worst in baseball. He has put 61 grounders in
play, and has hits on just five of them.
同時，有199位打了超過50個滾地球的選手，在其中Sanchez的表現相當平凡，擊球初速
是84.5mph，排名137，輸給2/3的選手，包括認為是non-sluggers的Orlando Arcia 和
Ian Desmond.他滾地球的BABIP是.082，排名199名，也就是最後一名，他打了61個滾地球
其中只有5支安打
Put it all together, and there's no player in baseball with a larger
difference between their grounders and hits in the air. There have been 186
hitters with 50 grounders and 50 flies/liners, and Sanchez's difference of
14.2 mph between his strong 98.7-mph exit velocity on balls in the air and
his weak 84.5-mph grounder exit velocity is the largest. The 333-point
difference between his .082 grounder BABIP and his .412 liner/fly ball BABIP
is the third-largest.
總的來說，沒有選手在飛球和滾球兩方面有這麼大的差異，有186位同時有超過50個飛球/
平飛球和50個滾地球的打者，Sanchez滾球初速的84.5-mph和飛球的98.7mph有14.2mph的
差異，是其中的最大值，而BABIP方面0.330的差異也是第三大的
There are a lot of factors at play in Sanchez's disappointing 2018, really.
He's striking out a little more, but he's walking a lot more. His popup rate
has jumped from 10 percent to 14 percent, and popups are basically free outs.
He's been wildly streaky, hitting .056/.081/.167 in his first nine games,
then a very strong .288/.394/.676 over his next 30 starts, then a miserable
.075/.197/.094 in 15 games since.
Sanchez糟糕的2018有許多因素，他被K了更多次，但獲得了更多的保送。他的popup rate
(鳥飛率?)從10%暴漲到14%，而這些球基本上是自動出局數，他的表現起伏很大，一開始
9場比賽打出.056/.081/.167，之後30場先發打出.288/.394/.676，近15場又只剩下
.075/.197/.094
There's a lot happening here. But a big part of it is that when Sanchez puts
the ball in play, he's not getting the results he'd expect. It's a little
about poor fortune. It's a lot about the fact that ground balls are just
about the worst thing a slow-footed catcher with elite power can do. After
all, weakly hit ground balls from a player without speed are unlikely to end
well. For Sanchez, that's true to an extreme so far.
也許有很多原因，但Sanchez把球打進場內時，並沒有得到他預期的效果。這跟運氣不好
有一點關。但主要原因在滾地球是這名有著強大力量的慢速捕手最不擅長的事。畢竟，
對於沒速度的選手來說，鳥滾不見得會有好的結果。目前為止就是如此
講一大串就是打到地上的球超級容易出局這樣

推