作者:
JCrawford (J-Crossover)
2018-08-17 20:53:11https://tinyurl.com/yc54u5tm
CARMELO ANTHONY: GREAT SHOOTER, BAD SHOTS
He’s known as an elite offensive player (and a defensive liability), but he
hasn’t actually been efficient on offense. That’s the enigma that is
Carmelo Anthony. It’s a big reason why Oklahoma City, which is both a
championship contender and a big spender, was looking to unload his contract
this offseason.
他是個精英進攻球員(以及防守端累贅)，但他從來沒有在進攻端變得高效過，這是Melo的
未解之謎，這也是OKC作為一支冠軍競爭者以及不怎缺錢的球隊，在這個休賽季拋棄他合
約的最大理由。
Of the 114 players that took at least 700 FGA last season, Carmelo was 105th
in Points Per Shot (PPS). His 0.95 points per shot would be the equivalent of
feeding a 31.7% 3-point shooter, like Evan Turner or Emmanuel Mudiay, behind
the arc. Even Brandon Ingram and Ish Smith were more efficient than Carmelo.
上賽季在114名球員至少出手700次的球員當中，Melo的PPS排名105，他的0.95PPS相當於
一個31.7%三分命中率的等球射手，大概相當於Evan Turner 或者 Emmanuel Mudiay在弧
頂投三分，即使是Brandon Ingram和Ish Smith效率都還比Melo高。
http://shottracker.com/images/articles/Picture1.png
It’s not that Carmelo is a bad shooter; he’s an excellent shooter. The
problem is his shot selection. Like almost every NBA player, Carmelo is
inefficient from mid-range. His 0.786 is the equivalent of shooting 26% from
3.
這並不意味著Melo是個差勁的射手，相反的他是個優秀的射手。他問題在於出手選擇，他
就跟大部分的NBA球員一樣，在中距離很低效。他的0.786PPS相當於一個26%的三分等球射
手。
Again, almost every NBA player is inefficient from mid-range. For example,
James Harden averaged 0.782 points per shot from this region last season. A
big difference between Harden and Carmelo is that Anthony took 460 mid-range
jumpers (to Harden’s 128). Would you want a 26% 3-point shooter taking 460
3-pointers for your team? Carmelo takes the most shots from the area where he
is the least efficient.
再強調一次，大部分的NBA球員中距離都很低效。舉例，Harden上賽季在這距離的出手平
均為0.782PPS。而兩者間最大不同則在於Melo出手460次(Harden128次)。你會想要一個
26%三分命中率的射手在你的球隊中出手460個三分嗎?而Melo就是在他最低效的區域出手
了大部分球權。
http://shottracker.com/images/articles/Picture2.png
But now Carmelo joins Houston, the NBA’s leader in shot selection. While
Oklahoma City still relied on the mid-range for 22% of their FGA, Houston led
the NBA with just 8% of their FGA coming from these inefficient jumpers.
但Melo加入了火箭，一支在出手選擇上領先全聯盟的球隊。當OKC還在依賴占了他們總出
手22%的中距離時，火箭就已經把這個最低效的跳投選擇壓到了剩8%。
http://shottracker.com/images/articles/Picture3.png
Houston shot selection worked. They averaged 1.15 points per possession, the
best in the NBA. In fact, 1.15 points per possession was the 10th most
efficient NBA season ever and the 3rd most efficient season of the last 20
years (only behind the 2009-10 Suns and 2016-17 Warriors).
火箭這出手選擇起了作用，他們1.15PPP是NBA最佳。事實上，1.15PPP是有史以來第10佳
的進攻效率賽季，而在過去20年來，為第3佳的進攻效率賽季(僅次於09-10太陽以及16-17
勇士)。
Consider how Carmelo’s shot selection compared to Houston’s top two
scorers, Harden and Chris Paul, and to Trevor Ariza, who Houston lost to free
agency and whose minutes Carmelo is likely to replace.
將Melo的出手選擇與火箭兩大頭號得分手Harden、CP3，以及Ariza去相互做比較。
39% of Carmelo’s FGA came from mid-range, while only 9% of Harden’s FGA
came from that zone. Ariza, who played largely off the ball, saw only 1% of
his FGA from mid-range. Even Chris Paul, who is one of the league’s most
efficient mid-range shooters, took a significantly lower percentage of his
FGA from mid-range than Carmelo.
Melo中距離佔39%總出手數，而Harden只有9%。Ariza，他大部分時間都打無球，只佔1%，
即使是CP3這種聯盟最高效的中距離射手，也比Melo少很多。
If we want to get a sense of how Houston’s offensive system might impact
Carmelo’s shot selection, Chris Paul is a valuable case study. Paul jumped
from the Clippers to the Rockets a year ago, and saw his percentage of FGA
from mid-range drop from 41% to 23%.
如果我們想知道火箭進攻體系將會如何影響Melo進攻選擇，那麼CP3就是個最具價值的例
子。CP3在一年之前從快艇轉到火箭，而他的中距離比例從41%降到23%。
http://shottracker.com/images/articles/Picture5.png
And remember, Chris Paul is one of the NBA’s best from mid-range. Carmelo is
not. Do not expect Houston to stomach inefficient deep twos from Anthony.
別忘了，CP3是聯盟中最好的中距離射手之一，而Melo則不是。別期待火箭會去容忍Melo
那低效的長兩分出手。
http://shottracker.com/images/articles/Picture4.png
But let’s go back to Trevor Ariza’s shot selection. It’s likely Carmelo
will fill Ariza’s role in many of Houston’s offensive sets. Ariza took
almost no mid-range jumpers. Instead, he relied heavily on corner and
above-the-break 3s. When Ariza did attack inside the arc, he typically went
all the way to the hoop. Expect Carmelo’s shot selection next season to
venture in this direction, and that’s a good thing for Carmelo and Houston.
回頭過來看Ariza的出手選擇，很可能Melo會扮演Ariza在進攻端腳色。Ariza幾乎沒出手
中距離，相反的，他更依賴大量的底角以及弧頂三分。當Ariza在三分線內出手，基本上
他就是進攻籃框。若Melo的進攻選擇能朝這方向走，那麼對火箭以及Melo是好事。
Houston relies heavily on the individual skills of both Harden and Paul in
the offense. Often, one of the two has the ball at the top of the key. Either
off a big man’s screen or in isolation, Harden or Paul will look to
penetrate. (According to NBA. com, Houston averaged 15.6 isolation
possessions per game, four more than any other team.) To give these attacking
players the most space possible, Houston makes sure to space to the 3-point
line with their other perimeter players.
火箭進攻大量的仰賴於Harden以及CP3的個人技巧，經常其中一個就待在弧頂。兩者都會
透過長人掩護或者單打來破解防守(據NBA. Com，火箭場均15.6次單打回合，比其他球隊
高出4次)，火箭會用外線三分球來拉開空間，確保這些進攻球員盡可能地擁有越多的空間
。
Expect Carmelo to play the role of spacer most often. If his man collapses to
help on Harden or Paul’s drive, those teammates will kick to Carmelo for 3.
On catch-and-shoot threes last season, Carmelo averaged 1.12 PPS. On
wide-open threes, he averaged an excellent 1.27 PPS.
預計Melo大部分時間都會扮演拉空間的腳色。若對位Melo的防守者去協防Harden或者CP3
的切入，那麼Melo會接到傳球投三分。上賽季Melo C&S平均為1.12PPS，空檔三分為優秀
的1.27PPS。
Carmelo has the ability to be an excellent offensive player, and the key to
unlocking that ability is shot selection. No team optimizes shot selection
like the Rockets. If Houston can reduce Anthony’s mid-range attempts while
getting him more open catch-and-shoot threes, expect his 2018-19 scoring to
more closely resemble what’s in the following table.
Melo有能力成為一個優秀的進攻球員，而關鍵在於解鎖Melo投籃選擇。沒有哪支球隊在優
化投籃選擇方面能比肩火箭，若火箭能減少Melo中距離出手，同時給他更多空檔C&S 三分
，那麼可以期待他的18-19得分會很接近如下表格所示。
http://shottracker.com/images/articles/Picture6.png
Recall that Carmelo’s 0.95 PPS in 2017-18 ranked 105th among 114 players
with at least 700 FGA. He was one of the least efficient high-usage players.
At 1.12 PPS, he’d rank 19th, better than Kyle Lowry, Anthony Davis, Chris
Paul, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Melo17-18賽季，0.97PPS在114名至少出手700次的球員中排名105，他是聯盟中進攻最低
效的高USG球員之一。而1.12PPS則排名19，比Kyle Lowry, Anthony Davis, Chris
Paul, and Giannis Antetokounmpo還優秀。
As the table shows, if Houston can alter Carmelo’s shot selection, they’ll
also be able to get an additional 2.5 points from him on the same quantity of
shots he saw in Oklahoma City. 2.5 points may not seem like a lot, but if
everything else remains the same, an additional 2.5 points per game projects
to an additional six wins.
如表格所示，若火箭能改變Melo出手選擇，他每次出手都能得到額外的2.5分，在OKC這額
外2.5分看起來可能不多，但所有方面都保持不變的話，這每場額外的2.5分可以多6勝。
In a basketball game, each team gets approximately the same number of
possessions. The team that is the most efficient with those possessions wins.
When it comes to shots, teams and players can increase their efficiency in
two ways. They can shoot a higher percentage on the shots they take. Or, they
can take better shots.
在籃球比賽中，每支球隊的回合數都差不多，所以每一回合更高效的那支球隊會贏球。談
到投籃，能讓球隊以及球員提升效率有兩種方式，他們要嘛提高命中率，不然就是去投那
更好的出手選擇。
Carmelo has always been a shot-maker. He has elite offensive ability. But as
the league has trended to better shot selection, Carmelo hasn’t adjusted. If
any team can right this ship, it’s Houston, and if they do, Carmelo will
return to being one of the NBA’s elite offensive players and Houston might
have enough to overtake the Warriors and reach the NBA Finals.
Melo一直以來都是那種可以自行創造出手空間的球員，他有著精英進攻能力，但是現在聯
盟趨勢是更好的出手選擇，而Melo從來沒對此調整過。如果說有哪支球隊能修正，這會是
火箭，如果他們這麼做了，那麼Melo會回歸成為NBA中精英進攻球員之一，火箭也許就有
足夠能力去超車勇士抵達總決賽。
不錯的文章
隨手翻了一下
說明了Melo為何進攻如此低效(以現代的角度看)
出手選擇傷害了效率