1.原文連結：
CNBC
https://goo.gl/eWd1Yk
2.原文內容：
Analyst predicts Apple shares will drop as iPhone sales expectations are
not 'realistic'
分析師: 蘋果股價會跟哀鳳實際銷量一起被看破手腳
Deutsche Bank reiterated its hold rating on Apple shares, saying Wall Street
consensus estimates for iPhone sales in fiscal 2019 are too high.
德意志: 哀鳳銷量預測五告膨風
"We remain wary that investor expectations for the iPhone 8/X cycle are more
optimistic than realistic," the firm's analyst said.
信仰充值循環週期沒那麼短
Apple stock has lost about $50 billion in market value so far this month,
falling 6 percent. It is still one of the market's best-performing large-cap
stocks so far this year, up 33 percent.
AAPL 這個月崩崩, 雖然今年來看股價表現還不錯
The market's anticipation of big sales of new iPhones drove Apple shares
higher this year, but now one Wall Street firm says the smartphone maker's
stock has risen too far.
哀鳳銷量吹牛大賽讓 AAPL 股價噴噴, 分析師: 太豪小
Deutsche Bank reiterated its hold rating on Apple shares, saying Wall
Street's consensus estimates for future iPhone sales are too high.
德意志: 吹牛吹得太過火
"We remain wary that investor expectations for the iPhone 8/X cycle are more
optimistic than realistic," analyst Sherri Scribner wrote in a note to
clients Wednesday entitled "Expectations are pricing in more than Apple can
chew."
"Given the substantial additional upside needed to drive further share gains
from here, and our view that FY-19 estimates need to come down to
realistically reflect a year after a strong cycle, we see modest downside
risk to shares near-term," she added.
Sherri Scribner: 信仰充值週期沒那摸短, 高估
Apple shares fell 0.7 percent in early trading Thursday after the report.
AAPL 週四早盤發布這則報導時崩崩 0.7%
The stock has lost about $50 billion in market value so far this month,
falling 6 percent. Despite recent weakness, Apple is still one of the
market's best-performing large-cap stocks, rallying 33 percent this year
through Wednesday versus the S&P 500's 12 percent gain.
本月市值蒸發 50B, 但今年仍是前段班
The analyst reaffirmed her $140 price target for Apple shares, which is 9
percent lower than Wednesday's closing price.
Sherri Scribner: 140 收
Scribner said investors are expecting fiscal 2018 to be a repeat of the big
iPhone 6 upgrade cycle in fiscal 2015, when the company generated sales $31
billion above expectations.
Sherri Scribner: 投資人還肖想 i8 iX 會複製 i6 走勢
"To beat expectations by a similar magnitude ($30B) this cycle would require
that AAPL ship 45M more iPhone units in FY-18 than current expectations, or
nearly 290M iPhones in total. We view this as highly unlikely," she wrote.
Sherri Scribner: 要達到18財測還要再多出貨45M單位, 也就是總共出貨290M, 呷屎啦
She is more pessimistic for the following year and predicts Apple's fiscal
2019 sales will drop.
她悲觀
"We believe it is more likely that unit forecasts decline, similar to the
iPhone 6s cycle, and Street estimates for FY-19 need to come down to reflect
a more realistic down year following the iPhone 8/X cycle," the analyst wrote.
Sherri Scribner: 複製i6? 我看倒像綠豆糕... 不是, 是 6s
Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Apple: ....
3.心得/評論：
蘋果的時代迎向末途, 信仰就是力量
但失去信仰的神祇就像荒山中的土地公廟
只有猴子會去尋找不再出現的供品
入我索教得永生, 共勉之