1.原文連結：
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-model-3-production-guidance-q3-skeptic/
2.原文內容：
Tesla will likely meet Model 3 production guidance for Q3, says TSLA skeptic
看空TSLA 者表示，Tesla 應能達到Model 3 的Q3 產能目標
There is no denying that Tesla’s goals for the third quarter of 2018 are
ambitious. After achieving its then-elusive goal of producing 5,000 Model 3
per week at the end of Q2 2018, Tesla immediately set its sights on a bigger
target. In terms of Model 3 production and deliveries, Tesla noted that it
was aiming to manufacture and deliver more than 50,000 units of the electric
car in Q3 2018.
無可否認地，Tesla 18年Q3的目標雄心勃勃。Q2末每週生產5000輛Model 3 的目標在當
時是被看成是難以達成的，達成後Tesla 立即設立了更大的目標。在Model 3 的生產和
交付方面，Tesla 表示目標是在Q3 生產和交付超過5萬輛電動車。
If Tesla’s ongoing delivery blitz is any indication, it appears that the
electric car maker is attempting to deliver as many vehicles to reservation
holders as possible before the quarter ends. This weekend alone, Tesla opted
to accept help from volunteer owners who offered to assist in deliveries by
conducting new customer orientations. Elon Musk later noted on a Twitter post
that Tesla is now in the process of building its own car carriers to help
address bottlenecks in the transportation of electric cars from the Fremont
factory to delivery centers across the United States.
Tesla 似乎正試圖在季度結束前交付盡可能多的車輛。 僅在本週末，Tesla 選擇接受
車主的幫助，他們藉由引導新車主來協助交付。 稍後Elon Musk 在推特上說Tesla 正
在建立自己的車輛運輸，用來協助解決在美國的交車問題。
Amidst Tesla’s delivery blitz, Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino, a
known skeptic of the electric car maker, issued a somewhat positive estimate
about the company’s delivery figures this third quarter. While Tamberrino
maintained his Sell rating on Tesla, and while he kept a conservative $210
price target for TSLA stock (NASDAQ:TSLA), he stated in a recent note that
the electric car maker would likely deliver 27,500 Model S and X and about
52,000 Model 3 in Q3 2018. The analyst further noted that Tesla’s deliveries
would likely exceed his estimates, considering that the company had more than
11,000 vehicles en route to customers at the end of Q2.
高盛分析師David Tamberrino 在Tesla 快速交付車輛的同時，這位知名的看空者對這
家電動車製造商的Q3 交車數據做出了一些正面的預測。雖然Tamberrino 維持他對
TSLA 的股價評級，但在最近的一份報告中，他表示Tesla 可能會在18年Q3 時交付27500
輛Model S/X 與52000輛Model 3。這位分析師進一步指出，Tesla 的交車量很有可能會
超出其預期，因為該公司在Q2 末向客戶交付了超過11000輛汽車。
Production-wise, the Goldman Sachs analyst stated that he expects Tesla to
meet its Model 3 production target. Tamberrino did note, though, that Model 3
production figures will likely be on the lower end of Tesla’s 50,000-55,000
range. Tamberrino also stated that while the Model S and X delivery cadence
is below the numbers implied by the company’s guidance of 100,000 units per
year, Model S and X figures this Q3 will likely be better than FactSet and
consensus estimates.
在生產方面，高盛分析師表示他預期Tesla 能夠達到其Model 3 的生產目標。但
Tamberrino 表示，Model 3的產量數據可能會位於Tesla 所設定的50000-55000範圍的
下半部。Tamberrino 還指出，雖然Model S/X 的交付率低於該公司每年10萬輛的水準，
但Model S/X 的數據表明這會比FactSet 和一般預期更好。
Earlier this month, Elon Musk teased in a letter to Tesla employees that the
company is about to have a record quarter, “building and delivering more
than twice as many cars as (it) did” in Q2 2018. Tesla board member Kimbal
Musk further noted in a CNBC Closing Bell segment that “it’s really gonna
blow people’s minds how many Model 3s are gonna appear in America in just
the next couple of weeks.”
本月早些時候，Elon Musk 在致Tesla 員工的一封信中說到，公司將會有個創記錄的季
度："生產和交付 18年Q2 兩倍多的數量"。Tesla 董事會成員Kimbal Musk 在CNBC 的
節目Closing Bell 中指出，"這真的會讓人不禁想到在未來幾周內會有多少Model 3 出
現在美國。"
Tesla is a newcomer in the US auto industry, and as such, it still has a lot
of learning to do before it masters the auto business. While the company is
still pretty much in startup mode today, its growth over the past decade has
been remarkable. Exactly ten years ago, for example, Tesla was still a
struggling electric car maker that has only been able to build 27 units of
the original Tesla Roadster. By the end of September 2008, Tesla completed
three more vehicles, producing a total of 30 Roadsters. This year, Tesla is
expecting to deliver 100,000 units of Model S and X alone.
Tesla 是美國汽車業的新手，因此，在掌握汽車業務之前它還有很多要學。 雖然該公
司今天仍然還在起步中，但它的成長非常顯著。例如，就在十年前，Tesla 還是間掙扎
於製造最初的Tesla Roadster的汽車製造商，它只做好了27輛。到2008年9月底，Tesla
又完成了3輛車，共生產了30輛 Roadsters。今年，Tesla 預計將交付10萬輛Model S/X。
3.心得/評論：
David Tamberrino 這位高盛分析師一直以來都看空Tesla，認為它會失敗、股價
也不應該這麼高。記得他給TSLA 的目標價都是在180、185、190這幾個數字之間，
最近升到了210，但就算是他也不得不承認Model 3 的生產已經上了軌道，雖然他
給的目標價還是比現在股價低，持續看空TSLA，但Q3 財報發佈後會發生什麼事情
沒人知道。有可能像上次一樣跳漲12%，就算各項數字都超乎預期，但也有可能因
為奇怪的事情而下跌。
但至少能達到產能目標是件好事~