原文標題：
New Challenge For The Powell Fed: A Strengthening Economy
原文連結：
https://reurl.cc/3NbMY8
發布時間：
Wednesday, March 17th 2021, 9:54 am
原文內容：
WASHINGTON (AP) — For the past year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has
expressed a wish for more rescue spending from Congress, better control of
the viral pandemic and clear evidence of an improving economy.
He’s finally getting all three. Yet all of that hardly makes Powell’s job
easier.
At the Fed’s policy meeting this week and at a news conference to follow,
the chair will take up a new challenge: Convincing financial markets that
even as the economic picture brightens, the Fed will be able to continue
providing support without contributing to high inflation. Powell’s message
will likely be that the economy still needs substantial backing from the Fed
in the form of short-term interest rates near zero and bond purchases that
are intended to lower long-term borrowing rates.
Complicating the Fed’s task is that investors envision a swift and robust
recovery later this year that could accelerate inflation and send long-term
rates surging. Behind that fear is the belief that as vaccines are more
widely administered and money from President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion
rescue package flows through the economy, growth will accelerate so fast that
the Fed will feel compelled to quickly raise rates to quell inflation
pressures. If that were to happen, the economy could suffer another setback.
The economy’s outlook has improved significantly since the Fed’s
policymaking committee last met in late January. Job gains accelerated in
February, sales at retail stores jumped after $600 relief checks were
distributed at the start of the year and Biden signed his economic relief
package into law last week.
The stronger outlook has sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbing
as investors have dumped bonds, which are typically safe-haven investments
during downturns. The yield on the 10-year reached 1.62% in afternoon trading
Friday; it had been below 1% at the end of last year. The rise in the 10-year
yield in recent weeks “caught my attention,” Powell acknowledged earlier
this month.
In anticipation of faster growth and inflation, investors have priced in at
least three Fed rate hikes by 2023 — a much earlier lift-off than the Fed
itself has forecast. In December, the central bank’s policymakers
collectively projected that they wouldn’t begin raising rates until at least
2024.
Seeking to reassure investors, Fed officials have said they regard the rise
in the 10-year yield as a positive sign, evidence that the financial markets
expect the economy to steadily strengthen. Many economists agree.
“Markets are responding to the ongoing, and accelerating, recovery,” said
Lewis Alexander, an economist at the investment bank Nomura. “In many
respects, the Fed is dealing with the problems of success.”
But if longer-term rates rise too high, the economy could suffer as borrowing
becomes more expensive for consumers and businesses. The average rate on a
30-year fixed mortgage, for example, has topped 3% after having set a record
low of 2.65% as recently as early January. Mortgage rates could price out
some would-be home buyers if they go too high.
When the Fed’s meeting ends Wednesday, much attention will focus on the
release of its updated economic and interest rate projections. The central
bank issued its most recent projections in mid-December, before it was clear
whether Congress would approve a $900 billion rescue package or how much more
federal aid Biden would manage to enact. Since then, roughly $2.8 trillion in
economic relief has been approved.
Average daily COVID infections have also dropped precipitously, and
vaccinations have accelerated. As a consequence, Fed officials will likely
boost their projections for economic growth for this year and for 2022, lower
their estimates for unemployment and raise their expectations for inflation.
Fed officials may project economic growth this year of as much as 5%,
economists say, up from their December estimate of 4.2%. After a 3.5%
contraction in 2020, many private-sector analysts are forecasting growth of
roughly 7% this year. That would be the fastest calendar-year U.S. expansion
since 1984.
Acknowledging those improvements could make it harder for the Fed to convince
financial markets that it will remain “patient” about raising rates, as
Powell has stressed in recent weeks.
In his news conference, Powell will likely focus on the persistent weakness
in the job market. There are 9.5 million fewer jobs than there were just
before the pandemic erupted a year ago. That is more jobs than were lost in
the 2008-2009 Great Recession.
The unemployment rate, at 6.2%, is far below the 14.8% peak reached last
April. But Fed officials often cite an alternative measure that includes
people who are out of work but aren’t looking for a job and so aren’t
counted as unemployed. That figure is roughly 9.5%.
One option for Powell would be to discuss financial tools the Fed could use
if longer-term rates rose so quickly that they could threaten the economy’s
health. The Fed could shift more of its monthly purchases of Treasurys to
longer-term securities, such as 10-year notes, while cutting back on its
short-term bond buys.
Or Powell could consider buying more overall government securities, with the
additional purchases focused on longer-term bonds. That’s what Christine
Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, said last week she would do.
“Financial markets are looking for action here, not words,” said Joe
Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and advisory firm RSM. “Powell’s in a
difficult situation.”
Brusuelas suggested that Powell might be able to allay any concerns just by
mentioning the Fed’s additional tools, without having to implement them.
Some economists expect the Fed to project that its next rate hike could occur
by the end of 2023, earlier than they forecast in December. That move would
reflect the improved economic outlook.
But it doesn’t necessarily mean the Fed will discuss any new steps, said
William English, a former senior Fed official and finance professor at the
Yale School of Management.
With the economy improving, “it would be a strange thing to react to that”
by taking further steps to keep rates low, he said.
機翻如下：
華盛頓（美聯社）-在過去的一年中，美聯儲主席杰羅姆‧鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）表示
希望從國會獲得更多的救助支出，更好地控制病毒性大流行，並明確證明經濟正在改善。
他終於得到了全部三個。然而，所有這些幾乎都不會使鮑威爾的工作變得容易。
在本周美聯儲的政策會議以及隨後的新聞發布會上，主席將面臨一個新的挑戰：說服金融
市場，即使經濟形勢好轉，美聯儲也將能夠繼續提供支持，而不會助長高通脹。鮑威爾傳
達的信息可能是，美國經濟仍需要美聯儲的大力支持，例如短期利率接近於零以及購買債
券以降低長期借貸利率。
使美聯儲的任務複雜化的是，投資者預計今年晚些時候將迅速而強勁地複蘇，這可能會加
速通貨膨脹並導致長期利率飆升。在人們擔心的背後，是人們相信，隨著疫苗的管理更加
廣泛，以及總統拜登（Joe Biden）1.9萬億美元的救助計劃中的資金流向經濟，增長將如
此之快，以至於美聯儲將被迫迅速提高利率以平息通貨膨脹壓力。如果發生這種情況，經
濟可能會遭受另一次挫折。
自美聯儲決策委員會上次於1月下旬舉行會議以來，經濟前景已顯著改善。 2月份工作機
會加速增長，在年初分配了600美元的救濟支票後，零售商店的銷售額猛增，拜登上週將
其經濟救濟方案簽署為法律。
由於投資者拋售了債券（通常是低迷時期的避險投資），強勁的前景使10年期美國國債收
益率攀升。週五下午的交易中，十年期收益率達到1.62％。到去年底，這一比例還不到1
％。鮑威爾本月早些時候承認，最近幾週10年期國債收益率的上漲“引起了我的注意”。
由於預期經濟增長和通貨膨脹會更快，投資者已經預計到2023年美聯儲至少要加息三次，
這比美聯儲本身的預測要早得多。去年12月，中央銀行的政策制定者集體預測，他們至少
要到2024年才會開始加息。
美聯儲官員表示，為使投資者放心，他們認為十年期國債收益率的上升是一個積極信號，
這表明金融市場預計經濟將穩步增長。許多經濟學家都同意。
投資銀行野村證券（Nomura）的經濟學家劉易斯‧亞歷山大（Lewis Alexander）說：“
市場正在對持續的，加速的複蘇做出反應。” “在許多方面，美聯儲正在處理成功的問
題。”
但是，如果長期利率升得太高，則經濟可能會受到損害，因為藉款對消費者和企業而言變
得更加昂貴。例如，30年期固定抵押貸款的平均利率在1月初創下2.65％的歷史新低之後
，已突破3％。如果抵押貸款利率過高，抵押貸款利率可能會使一些潛在的購房者付出高
昂的代價。
當美聯儲會議在星期三結束時，人們將把很多注意力集中在發布最新的經濟和利率預測上
。中央銀行在12月中旬發布了最新的預測，之後很明顯國會是否會批准9000億美元的一攬
子救助計劃，或者拜登將設法頒布多少聯邦援助。自那時以來，已經批准了大約2.8萬億
美元的經濟救濟。
平均每天的COVID感染也急劇下降，並且疫苗接種也在加速。結果，美聯儲官員可能會提
高對今年和2022年經濟增長的預測，降低對失業的估計並提高對通脹的預期。
經濟學家說，美聯儲官員可能預計今年的經濟增長將高達5％，高於他們12月的4.2％的估
計。在2020年收縮3.5％之後，許多私營部門分析師預測今年的增長率約為7％。那將是自
1984年以來最快的日曆年度美國擴張。
正如鮑威爾最近幾週所強調的那樣，承認這些改善可能會使美聯儲更難以說服金融市場相
信它將繼續對加息保持“耐心”。
在他的新聞發布會上，鮑威爾很可能將重點放在就業市場的持續疲軟上。與一年前大流行
爆發之前相比，工作崗位減少了950萬。這比2008-2009年大蕭條中失去的工作要多。
失業率為6.2％，遠低於去年4月達到的14.8％的峰值。但美聯儲官員經常引用另一種措施
，其中包括失業但不找工作的人，因此不算作失業者。這個數字大約是9.5％。
鮑威爾的一種選擇是討論如果長期利率上升如此之快以至於可能威脅經濟健康的美聯儲可
以使用的金融工具。美聯儲可以將其每月購買的美國國債的更多部分轉移到諸如10年期債
券之類的長期證券上，同時減少其短期債券的購買。
或者鮑威爾可以考慮購買更多的整體政府證券，而額外的購買重點是長期債券。這就是歐
洲央行行長克里斯汀‧拉加德（Christine Lagarde）上週表示的話。
稅務和諮詢公司RSM的首席經濟學家喬‧布魯索拉斯（Joe Brusuelas）說：“金融市場正
在這裡尋求行動，而不是言語。” “鮑威爾處境艱難。”
布魯塞拉斯認為，鮑威爾只需提及美聯儲的其他工具，就可以減輕任何擔憂，而不必實施
這些工具。
一些經濟學家預計，美聯儲將在2023年底之前進行下一次加息，這比他們在12月的預測要
早。這一舉動將反映出經濟前景的改善。
耶魯大學管理學院前美聯儲高級官員兼金融學教授威廉‧英語說，但這並不一定意味著美
聯儲將討論任何新措施。
他說，隨著經濟的改善，採取進一步措施將利率保持在較低水平，“對此做出反應是一件
很奇怪的事情”。
心得/評論：
目前看到的談論都有相當的共識
1.疫情正在好賺
2.經濟正在復甦
3.聯準會不想扯經濟復甦的後腿
基於這樣的認知基礎上，很容易就會得到聯準會對於控制利率的消極預期。
某個程度上來說，除非鮑威爾創造了很大的驚喜，否則重點在於市場解讀而非說了什麼。
個人認為市場可能會趁亂修正一波，玩玩上沖下洗的遊戲。
基於這樣的判斷，個人認為本來就打算長抱的人無需過度驚慌，衝浪繼續衝浪。