原文標題：
ARK Invest’s new Tesla Price Target includes $4 Trillion Market Cap, 10M
cars in 2025
ARK Invest的新特斯拉價格目標包括4兆美元的市值，2025年的1000萬輛汽車銷售量
原文連結：
https://reurl.cc/Xe2ZX0
發布時間：
Posted by Jason Cartwrighton March 20, 2021
原文內容：
Cathy Wood’s Ark Invest is famous for being bullish about Tesla. Ark Invest
has just released an update to their price target for Tesla in 2025 and it
includes a bull case where Tesla ships 10 million cars, autonomous robotaxis
and has a more than 25% chance of being worth more than 4 Trillion dollars.
Ark Invest’s updated forecast includes key updates to their model.
。We pushed our forecast price target forward one year to 2025.
。We refined our estimates for Tesla’s capital efficiency.
。We added Tesla’s insurance business to our model.
。We added assumptions for a human-driven ride-hail service.
。We increased the probability of Tesla achieving fully autonomous driving
within five years.
Naturally with all good funds, they set out a bear and bull case, which even
in the worst case has Tesla growing substantially to ship 5 million cars by
2025 and be worth almost 3x what they are now with a $1.5 Trillion market cap
and share price.
To give you some perspective, Apple has a 2.01T market cap today and Amazon
is at 1.55T.
https://i.imgur.com/YpPrYG1.jpg
Ark breaks down their model with a number of key inputs.
While Elon has predicted around 50% annual growth rate, Ark clearly thinks
Elon is sandbagging with predictions that could be somewhere between 65 and
90%.
When it comes to the autonomous story for Tesla, executing makes up a
significant portion of the predicted growth of the company. While Musk has
never confirmed an interim step of having Uber-style competitor of a
human-driven ride-hailing service, Ark, clearly thinks they should.
Ark Invest’s new model has Tesla earning as much as $20 Billion in operating
profit by 2025 as a bull case. Personally I think the likelyhood of this
occurring is incredibly low, with any potential revenue opportunity being
offset by a distraction to the larger mission of replacing drivers completely
and making our roads safer.
With much debate about the FSD Beta lately, it’s hard to deny that the
videos shared online show the promise of the technology and Ark are clearly
seeing a massive uptick in adoption, once the technology (and regulation) are
ready to go. The take rate for FSD currently isn’t great, possibly around
10%, while Ark predicts around 60% of Tesla vehicles will be using it in 2025.
As bold as these numbers sound from Ark, it’s important to realise these do
not include all Tesla operations, with a disclaimer at the bottom of the post.
Note: We do not model Tesla’s utility energy storage or solar business in
our models. We also have not modeled bitcoin assumptions in our model.
Read the full report on Ark Invest.
https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target-2/
機翻如下：
凱茜·伍德（Cathy Wood）的方舟投資公司（Ark Invest）以對特斯拉看好而聞名。 方
舟投資公司（Ark Invest）剛剛發布了特斯拉2025年目標價格的更新，其中包括牛市，特
斯拉出貨量為1000萬輛汽車，自動機器人，並有超過25％的機會價值超過4兆美元。
Ark Invest的更新預測包括對其模型的關鍵更新。
我們將預測價格目標提前一年到2025年。
我們完善了對特斯拉資本效率的估計。
我們將特斯拉的保險業務添加到了我們的模型中。
我們增加了人為驅動的叫車服務的假設。
我們增加了特斯拉在五年內實現全自動駕駛的可能性。
自然而然地如所有好的基金，他們設定了空頭和牛市，即使在最壞的情況下，特斯拉也將
大幅增長，到2025年將出貨500萬輛汽車，市值和股票市值達到1.5兆美元，其市值幾乎是
現在的三倍 。
為了給您一些比較，今天蘋果的市值為2.01T，而亞馬遜的市值為1.55T。
https://i.imgur.com/YpPrYG1.jpg
方舟會通過許多關鍵輸入細分他們的模型。
雖然Elon預測年增長率約為50％，但Ark顯然認為Elon的預測可能在65％至90％之間。
當談到特斯拉的自主故事時，執行是公司預測增長的重要組成部分。 儘管Musk從未證實
過要讓Uber式競爭對手提供以人為本的乘車服務的過渡步驟，但Ark顯然認為他們應該這
樣做。
方舟投資公司（Ark Invest）的新模型使特斯拉到2025年的營業利潤高達200億美元。 我
個人認為發生這種情況的可能性非常低，任何潛在的收入機會都可以被完全取代駕駛員和
使我們的道路更安全的更大使命所分散。
最近，人們對FSD Beta進行了許多辯論，因此，很難否認在線共享的影片顯示了該技術的
前景，一旦技術（和法規）準備就緒，方舟顯然會看到採用率的急劇上升。 目前，FSD的
使用率並不理想，可能約為10％，而Ark預測，到2025年將有60％的特斯拉車輛在使用它
。
正如Ark所說的那樣大膽，重要的是要意識到這些不包括特斯拉的所有業務，在文章的底
部有一個免責聲明。
注意：我們不會在模型中對Tesla的公用事業儲能或太陽能業務進行建模。 我們還沒有在
模型中對比特幣假設進行建模。
心得/評論：
一如既往地看得非常好
不過這次的估值不包括比特幣和能源事業
不談虛幻的比特幣
能源的部分，Elon Musk本身在未來看得非常高，甚至比電車還高。
基本估到3000，熊市1500，牛市4000
應該說變保守了其實