原文標題：木頭姐 vs 老巴: 2022年誰會贏？
原文連結：https://ibit.ly/7Ffi
發布時間：2022/01/25
原文內容：
(最近有許多再度押注ARK的人 轉來這篇給有興趣的參考 不喜請直接左轉即可)
Cathie Wood vs. Warren Buffett: Who Will Win in 2022?
木頭姐 vs 老巴: 2022年誰會贏？
Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation exchange-traded fund soared in 2020 thanks to
its focus on technology and growth stocks. But now Berkshire Hathaway is
gaining on ARKK.
方舟創新 ETF 在2020年飆升,這要歸功於它對科技和成長型股票的關注.但是現在波克夏
·海瑟威公司正在超越 ARKK.
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood specializes in finding high-growth technology
stocks. Her Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) - Get ARK Innovation ETF Report soared
in 2020 as tech companies like Tesla (TSLA) - Get Tesla Inc Report made huge
gains.
方舟投資首席執行官木頭姐專門尋找高增長的科技股.她的方舟創新 ETF (ARKK)
在2020年飆升的科技公司,如特斯拉(TSLA)取得了巨大的收益.
However, high-growth tech stocks have fallen out of favor in recent months.
With potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on the horizon, investors
are looking for safety, rather than volatility. They're becoming wary of
growth stocks, whose valuations are often stretched.
然而,高增長的科技股在最近幾個月已經失寵.隨著美聯儲(fed)加息的可能性即將出現,投
資者正在尋找安全性,而非波動性.他們開始警惕成長型股票,因為它們的估值經常過高.
With such a shift in investor mindset, it's no surprise that Warren Buffett's
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) - Get Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class A Report is
on the rise. Buffett is a dyed-in-the-wool value investor. Through his
holding company, he invests only in companies with strong fundamentals and
earnings potential.
隨著投資者思維模式的轉變,投資人不意外的把目光轉向老巴的波克夏·海瑟威(BRK.A
巴菲特是一個徹頭徹尾的價值投資者.通過他的控股公司,他只投資於基本面和盈利潛力
強勁的公司.
Ark Innovation: Shoot for the Moon
方舟創新: 射向月球
A year ago, super-investor Cathie Wood and her Ark Innovation fund were the
toast of Wall Street. The ETF had gained roughly 170% since the start of the
pandemic.
一年前,超級投資者木頭姐(Cathie Wood)和她的方舟創新基金(Ark Innovation fund)還
是華爾街的寵兒.自大流行開始以來,ETF 已經上漲了大約170% .
But since reaching an all-time high in February 2021, the ARK Innovation ETF
has fallen more than 54%. The ETF hit a fresh 52-week low around $71 per
share on January 21.
但自2021年2月創下歷史新高以來,ARK 創新 ETF 已下跌逾54% .1月21日,該 ETF 觸及每
股約71美元的52周新低.
https://i.imgur.com/MqHmM2U.png
Figure 2: ARKK vs. SPY performance.
圖2: ARKK vs. SPY
Besides Tesla, two of ARKK's top holdings were pandemic-era plays. Zoom (ZM)
- Get Zoom Video Communications, Inc. Class A Report was a pandemic darling
through the stay-at-home trend. And Teladoc's (TDOC) - Get Teladoc Health,
Inc. Report remote medical services also benefited greatly from the pandemic.
除了特斯拉之外,ARKK 持倉最大的兩家公司都是疫情時期的公司.
Zoom(ZM)是通過居家辦公時的寵兒.還有 Teladoc's (TDOC).
報告顯示,遠端醫療服務也從疫情中獲益匪淺.
Now that doctor's offices are reopening and employees are returning to work,
these businesses — and their stocks — have fallen out of favor. And the
other growth stocks in the ARKK portfolio have been hurt by macroeconomic
uncertainty, impending interest rate hikes, and anti-risk investor sentiment.
現在,醫生診所重新開業,員工重返工作崗位,這些企業及其股票已經失寵.投資組合中的其
他成長型股票也受到宏觀經濟不確定性、即將到來的加息和反風險投資者情緒的影響.
But Cathie Wood's picks have great future potential. Even with their
valuations stretched in the short term, we can justify long-term investments.
Just don't look for them to repeat their historical peaks anytime soon.
但是木頭姐的選擇有著巨大的潛力.即使它們的估值在短期內有所偏高,我們也能證明長期
投資是合理的.只是不要指望他們在短期內重複他們的歷史高峰.
Berkshire Hathaway: Get Rich Slowly
波克夏·海瑟威: 慢慢致富
It's hard to dispute the Berkshire Hathaway strategy. Led by 91-year-old
investing legend Warren Buffett, the holding company has had a successful
track record that shows little sign of stopping, even though it's
underperformed the benchmark since 2020.
我們很難對波克夏·海瑟威的戰略提出異議.在91歲的投資傳奇人物老巴(Warren
Buffett)的帶領下,這家控股公司取得了成功的業績記錄,幾乎沒有停止的跡象,儘管該公
司自2020年以來的表現一直落後於基準指數.
https://i.imgur.com/h3GT9bO.png
Figure 3: BRK (red), SPY (purple) and ARKK (blue) performance.
圖3: BRK (紅色)、 SPY (紫色)和 ARKK (藍色)
Apple (AAPL) — the world's largest company by market cap — is Berkshire
Hathaway's biggest holding, at nearly 50%. That's followed by Bank of America
(BAC) American Express (AXP) and Coca-Cola (KO) These are not growth stocks,
Instead, they are companies with solid fundamentals that pay dividends and have cash
to spare to generate value for shareholders.
蘋果公司(AAPL)-世界市值最大的公司是波克夏·海瑟威最大的控股公司,持股比例接近
50% .其次是美國銀行(BAC),美國運通(AXP),以及可口可樂(KO).這些不是成長型股票,相
反,它們是擁有穩健基本面的公司,支付股息,並有閒置現金為股東創造價值.
Throughout the years, Buffett has been also a strong bull on the American
economy. Thanks to his decades of experience, he is able to see the U.S.
economy's resilience and strength — compared to other economies around the
globe — as a key to his successful investing track record.
多年來,巴菲特一直是美國經濟的強勁看漲者.由於他幾十年的經驗,他能夠將美國經濟的
彈性和實力(與全球其它經濟體相比)視為他成功投資記錄的關鍵.
Buffett believes that long-term growth in companies with solid fundamentals
will inevitably generate value for their investors in different market
cycles. Some of his notorious quotes, such as “Someone is sitting in the
shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago” and
“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about
owning it for 10 minutes,” reinforces his long-term view.
巴菲特認為,在不同的市場週期中,基本面穩健的公司的長期增長將不可避免地為投資者創
造價值.他的一些名言,比如"今天有人坐在樹蔭下,因為很久以前有人種了一棵樹”,
"如果你不願意持有一檔股票10年,那麼連10分鐘不要持有”,強化了他的長期觀點.
Wood vs. Buffett: Who's the Winner?
伍德 vs 巴菲特: 誰是贏家？
We'd say Warren Buffett is the winner here. He has managed to beat the market
in difficult times, even if he has underperformed the market during periods
of explosive growth.
我們會說老巴是這裡的贏家.儘管在經濟爆炸式增長時期表現不佳,但他還是設法在困難時
期擊敗了市場.
Cathie Wood's philosophy has many good points. But managing a high-risk
portfolio is like walking a tightrope without a net. Although the Ark
Innovation ETF has shown investors high rewards, it's not without high risk.
木頭姐的哲學有許多優點.但是管理一個高風險的投資組合,就像是在沒有防護的情況下
走鋼絲.儘管方舟創新 ETF 已經向投資者展示了高回報,但它並非沒有高風險.
(Disclaimers: this is not investment advice. The author may be long one or
more stocks mentioned in this report. Also, the article may contain affiliate
links. These partnerships do not influence editorial content. Thanks for
supporting Wall Street Memes)
(免責聲明: 這不是投資建議.作者可以做多本報告中提到的一隻或多檔股票.此外,文章可
能包含會員連結.這些合作關係不會影響編輯內容.感謝你對華爾街文化基因的支持
心得/評論： ※必需填寫滿30字，無意義者板規處分
常有人說能活到最後的才是贏家.
雖然Wood過了風光的幾年,但殞落使的投資人罵聲連連.
也是有人看到了新的機遇,再度重燃對ARK的信心.
但誠如本文所說,要短期重返高峰有一定難度.並且有許多外在阻力(如SARK/總經展望)