※ 引述《mnabc123456 (財經好彭友)》之銘言:
1.Buffett Indicator
巴菲特指標75~90%代表股價合理、超過120%代表股市被高估
https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php
目前美股在 159.7%。
2.Buffett Indicator若經過Guru程式校正
目前美股在117%,仍然是高估
3.Shiller PE
https://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php
5th 21.9-44.2 top 20% overvalued market
4th 17.7-21.9
3rd 14.8-17.7
2nd 11.2-14.8
1st 4.8 -11.2 bottom 20% undervalued market
目前美股在29.6,仍在歷史高位
4.Shiller PE調整後超額本益比報酬
Excess CAPE Yield (ECY): 2.39% (報酬率明顯偏低)
證明股市估值高