原文標題：AMD stock: Wells Fargo sees a 'tricky' earnings setup
原文連結：https://reurl.cc/KeKeoq
發布時間：04/09/2024, 09:39 AM
原文內容：
With AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) stock down in recent weeks, analysts at Wells Fargo previe
wed the company’s first-quarter earnings report.
Unfortunately for investors, Wells Fargo sees the company as having a “tricky s
etup” into the print.
Why AMD stock is down in recent weeks
AMD’s stock price has experienced a significant decline, falling over 20% in th
e last month and a further 5% in the last week of trading, now hovering around t
he $170 per share level. This is a stark contrast to just a few weeks ago when t
he stock was trading above the $200 per share mark.
Artificial intelligence related stocks have surged this year, and AMD, as one of
those stocks, has benefitted. However, interest rate uncertainty has helped to
weigh on AMD shares, while there have also been questions regarding the company
’s current valuation. With questions about its outlook also coming into play, A
MD’s stock has experienced a move lower in recent weeks.
Tech stocks, including semiconductor chip names, are generally sensitive to inte
rest rate movements as the companies sometimes rely on borrowing to fund researc
h and development.
Even so, some analysts remain bullish. On Monday, Melius raised the price target
on AMD to $265 from $192 while maintaining a Buy rating.
The firm said AMD is “looking like the ‘Nvidia mini.’”
“With a chip optimized for the inferencing explosion, AMD is just getting going
as AI models move into production,” said Melius. ”AMD’s chart even feels lik
e a mini-Nvidia on a delay.”
“Nvidia continues to do AMD and everyone else a favor by expanding the market a
nd driving awareness,” added Melius. “Their success has only accelerated the d
esire for a (distant) number 2 branded provider."
Wells Fargo sees a tricky earnings setup
Despite the positivity from Melius, analysts at Wells Fargo, when previewing the
chipmaker’s first quarter earnings report, said they see a “tricky setup” fo
r the company.
“AMD discussions remain focused on the MI300X upside bogey,” said the bank. “
AMD sentiment has waned over the past month given: 1. Possible cuts in MSFT's MI
300X deploy — we see this as too narrowly cited. 2. Concern over Samsung (KS:00
5930) HBM3 supply for MI300X — we see this concern as overdone. 3. A renewed/de
epened appreciation for NVDA's full stack post-GTC — we agree; we still model A
MD's at a sub-10% DC GPU share.”
Wells Fargo estimates that AMD has had a 40% or more server CPU ship share in hy
perscale cloud in the past — a share position they see as more likely higher fo
r internal workloads compared to external hyperscale cloud services.
With this in mind, the bank said that investors will be interested in AMD's thou
ghts on whether they have seen any signs of a recovery in traditional servers wi
thin their hyperscale cloud customers while also garnering an increased share in
external services. Furthermore, they state AMD's share trends in traditional sy
stem OEMs also remain an incremental growth driver.
Wells Fargo models AMD’s first quarter revenue at $5.46 billion and its EPS at
$0.62.
翻譯：
近幾周，由於AMD（NASDAQ：AMD）股票下跌，富國銀行的分析師們預覽了該公司的第一季度
財報。
對於投資者來說，不幸的是，富國銀行認為該公司在財報公佈之前的情況是“棘手的”。
AMD的股價出現了顯著下降，過去一個月下跌了逾20％，上周交易進一步下跌了5％，目前大
約在每股170美元左右。這與僅幾周前該股票交易在每股200美元以上的情況形成了鮮明對比
。
人工智能相關股票今年大幅上漲，而AMD作為其中之一，也受益。然而，利率不確定性使得A
MD股票承受壓力，同時也有關於公司目前估值的疑問。隨著對其前景的疑問也開始浮出水面
，AMD股票近幾周出現了下跌。
科技股票，包括半導體晶片公司，在利率變動方面通常很敏感，因為這些公司有時依賴借貸
來資助研發。
即便如此，一些分析師仍然看好。周一，Melius將AMD的目標價提高到265美元，而維持買入
評級。
該公司表示，AMD“看起來像是‘迷你版的英偉達’。”
“隨著針對推斷爆炸的芯片優化，AMD正在起步，因為人工智能模型開始投入生產，”Meliu
s說道。“甚至AMD的圖表都像是一個延遲的迷你英偉達。”
“英偉達繼續幫助AMD和其他所有人擴大市場並提高意識，”Melius補充道。“他們的成功
只加速了對（遙遠的）第二大品牌供應商的渴望。”
富國銀行認為財報情況棘手
儘管Melius表示積極樂觀，但富國銀行的分析師在預覽這家晶片製造商的第一季度財報時表
示，他們認為公司面臨“棘手的情況”。
“AMD的討論仍然集中在MI300X上的上行目標，”該銀行說道。“由於以下原因，過去一個
月來AMD的情緒已經下降：1.微軟（MSFT）可能會削減MI300X的部署——我們認為這太狹隘
了。2.對於三星（KS：005930）HBM3供應MI300X的擔憂——我們認為這種擔憂是過度的。3.
對於英偉達在GTC後的全套裝備的重新/加深的賞識——我們同意；我們仍然認為AMD的DC GP
U份額低於10％。”
富國銀行估計，過去AMD在超大規模雲中具有40％或更高的伺服器CPU出貨份額——他們認為
這個份額相對於外部超大規模雲服務而言，在內部工作負載方面更可能更高。
考慮到這一點，該銀行表示，投資者將對AMD對於他們是否看到傳統服務器在超大規模雲客
戶中的任何復甦迹象以及在外部服務中獲得增加份額感興趣。此外，他們還指出，AMD在傳
統系統OEM中的份額趨勢仍然是增量增長的驅動因素。
富國銀行將AMD的第一季度收入估計為54.6億美元，每股盈利為0.62美元。
心得評論：
有人認為微軟削減MI300X 還有HBM產能不夠分給AMD.
但據我所知 Nvidia佔了大部分或是幾乎全部的HBM3e產能了 如果AMD之後要用HBM3e 可能寥
寥無幾.
難怪這個月跌了快30%.. 財報前這種消息真的涼了
大夥兒 我們還是乖乖TSM+NVDL吧！