TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531 NM SOUTHEAST OF AN
DERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CONSOLIDATING LOW L
EVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) UNDER A BROAD PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION THA
T ALSO FEATURES AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TAIL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WI
TH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 272220Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE. THE I
NITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KT
S), AND IS BELOW THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS RE
VEALS MOSTLY EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH A SMALL POINT SOURCE DEVELOPING OV
ER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. 30W IS LOCATED ON THE BORDER OF MODERATE TO STRONG (15-2
0 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH HAS BEEN DELAYING CONSOLIDATION. SEA SU
RFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 30W
IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS NORTH.
https://upload.cc/i1/2018/09/28/ojkCiJ.gif

假直撲 真轉彎~~~ 去去轉彎去

EC+96好像變化不大+120修東調北EC這報像馬勒卡北轉?

我倒不覺得這顆還有可能來…EC這次早早跟進GFS可能被潭美教訓過了XDD這隻太遠了，高壓沒辦法撐到一路讓它偏西到南海甚至台灣?哀...今年台灣真幸運

今年台灣真的很強運 立場全開

那霸 50m/s了!https://i.imgur.com/p8OXQGl.png那霸雷達不知道是不是被吹壞了...缺一塊那霸南城 53.1m/s 了!潭美刷一波差不多掃到眼牆了，16、17級陣風開始出現了!不知道網路上哪裡還有沖繩那霸的現況直播可以看除了上面板友貼的網址之外https://i.imgur.com/dA64Fw4.png潭美造成那霸市16萬戶停電

00z走得比12z慢些 不知會否提早轉北

https://i.imgur.com/YPEICgV.png照EC預報準康芮來到了潭美卡鞍的位置也要上演同樣的戲碼嗎XDDD後方槽線預備中----到底要怎麼判斷槽線的強度和位置足不足以勾走熱帶氣旋我還是不太清楚槽後脊加強高壓負渦度，使高壓穩固?EC 168+的預報最好別被媒體看到XDD再過不久又會出現一堆恐恐恐不過這波帶走潭美的槽線東移後能把高壓擠成這樣?GFS還是跟EC不同調XDDD，又要來場勝負對決了那四次可信度會都一樣嗎@@還是以00 12Z為主?那就要看康芮前期增強幅度有多大了，還有到時候的導引明不明顯了哈哈哈還是要來一顆過癮一下XDDhttps://i.imgur.com/AOa48TN.gifMariahttps://i.imgur.com/Gj4lDqV.gif康芮潭美滯留太久啦...能量都被吸走看看高壓怎麼推它了====大自然平衡能量的方法，總不能每隻都C4、C5以上XDD這樣某些國家可能會很崩潰