利奇馬 路徑: JTWC: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1019.gif JMA: https://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/images/zooml/1909-00.png CWB: https://bit.ly/2YFXb9x GFS 0805 12Z: https://i.imgur.com/xtJnFk0.gif EC 0805 12Z: https://imgur.com/2PfcZvU.gif 渦度圖: https://i.imgur.com/uSXWa2j.gif 風切趨勢: https://i.imgur.com/znfZoI1.jpg 中低層風場: https://i.imgur.com/Ys17P1m.jpg 中高層風場: https://i.imgur.com/cTvmLTv.jpg 高空環境: 8/5 12Z https://i.imgur.com/qK5nsvs.jpg 風場掃描: https://i.imgur.com/QX8opDr.jpg http://i.imgur.com/YVZ2Ido.jpg (資料補充中) 95W (準柯羅莎) WTPN21 PGTW 051330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 144.8E TO 21.8N 140.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 144.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SWATH OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLOWLY IMPROVING, WITH A BROADER REGION OF LOW (5-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO BROAD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (29-31C) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONSOLIDATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SOON AFTER AS IT TAKES A MEANDERING NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 061330Z.// NNNN https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1019.gif 熱帯低気圧 令和元年08月05日22時20分 発表 <05日21時の実況> 大きさ - 強さ - 熱帯低気圧 存在地域 マリアナ諸島 中心位置 北緯 16度50分(16.8度) 東経 144度50分(144.8度) 進行方向、速さ 西 20km/h(10kt) 中心気圧 1000hPa 最大風速 15m/s(30kt) 最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt) <06日21時の予報> 強さ - 存在地域 マリアナ諸島 予報円の中心 北緯 19度30分(19.5度) 東経 142度55分(142.9度) 進行方向、速さ 北北西 15km/h(8kt) 中心気圧 998hPa 中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt) 最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt) 予報円の半径 110km(60NM) https://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/a.html 分頁太多 再開一篇討論~